SEPTEMBER COMMENTS

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629 630-631 632 633 634 635-636 637 638 639 640 641 642-643 644-645 646 647 648 649 650 651-652 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 660 661-662 663 664 665 666-667 668 669 670-671 672 673 674 675 676 677-678 679-680 681-682 683 684 685 686 687 688-689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696-697 698-699 700 701 702-703 704 705 706 707-709 710 711 712 713-714 715 716 717 718 719

UPDATED 19980901

COMMENT 1998-629

1. The chart at the end of this COMMENT shows hourly prices for the September US Treasury Bond.

2. The "3" and "5" shown in the chart identify the same points in the chart shown in COMMENT # 621 of 980830.

3. This market peaked in the overnight market on Monday, 980831 at 12800.

4. The day session peak occurred this morning at 12721.

5. As luck would have it, this price was 1/32nd short of the target reviewed in Point # 30 of COMMENT # 621.

6. The "better fit" scenario discussed in Point #s 19, 20, and 21 of COMMENT # 621 is the one which appears to have worked out.

7. The up trendline shown in the chart off the "3" and "5" points is the up trendline shown in the hourly chart in COMMENT # 621 and reviewed in Point # 25 of that same COMMENT.

8. Hourly momentum oscillators such as RSI continue to DIVERGE with the new highs (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

9. Now turn to page 398 in "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

10. Can you see the 3 Point Astro Point "cluster" on the 26th, 28th, and 30th (Sunday)?

11. You may recall our conversation at the beginning of this Edition in COMMENT #s 488 and 491 on 980701 and 980707 about the importance of Astro Point "clusters".

12. The message was that experience has suggested that major trends end at the end of Astro Point "clusters".

13. Such an example of an Astro Point "cluster" is presented in the "A&P Points" discussion in the "Almanac" ad which can be accessed from the main page (just follow the links) at the August 25, 1987 stock market peak.

14. In similar manner, this "cluster" began with a major "A Point" (the first of the second half, 1998), 2 calendar days later experienced a minor "A Point", and then 2 more calendar days later experienced a "P Point" (see COMMENT #s 600 of 980826 and
617 of 980830).

15. During this period, the stock market declined sharply each day.

16. The bond market rallied each day.

17. Each market reversed the day after the "cluster" ended (today).

18. The US Dollar also cracked during this period.

19. Currencies exploded.

20. The Japanese Yen's been up every day since the 25th (see COMMENT #s 557 of 980804, 588 of 980818 and 612 of 980827).

21. Although I've repeated this over and over again, look how big those "Inversion Indexes" are on pages 303 and 305 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".

22. Now turn to page 173.

23. Note the 3 monthly/weekly "Inversion Cycle Index" ALIGNMENTS.

24. If you still don't get it, reread the entirety of this COMMENT focusing on ALIGNMENTS.

25. What else do you know that's been in print since the beginning of the year that could have provided information which would have ALIGNED with THE market event of the year months in advance in addition to already having ALIGNED with the July stock
market peak (see, for instance, COMMENT # 521 of 980714)?

26. Back to the hourly bond chart.

27. The "4" has been shifted a little to the right.

28. The old "5" appears to have turned out under the "better fit" scenario to be but the "iiird of 5".

29. A PHI projection off the assumed "ist of 5" projects to 12706.

30. The high at Point "5" in the chart is 12703.

31. The length of "i of 5" is 42 ticks (2 X FIBONACCI # 21 = 42).

32. The length of "iii of 5" is 56 ticks (FIBONACCI # = 55).

33. The length of "v of 5" is 54 ticks (FIBONACCI # = 55).

34. "iii of 5" and "v of 5" are thus about equal.

35. Can you see the "vth wave" ascending triangle in the chart from "iv of 5" to the peak of the move?

36. 34 hours for the entirety of wave "v of 5" (FIBONACCI # = 34).

37. 13 hours to the new "4" wave shown in the chart from Point # "3" (FIBONACCI # = 13).

38. Now let's go back to the hourly chart in COMMENT # 621 of 980830.

39. If the scenario presented in the hereinabove is correct, the assumption is that Point "1B" in the chart ended the first wave up, that "Point 3" marked the end of the "3rd wave", and that we just finished the last surge up and ended the entirety of the move up not only from 980730, but also from 980430 and, even, the larger degree move up which began in April, 1997.

40. "Wave 1B" thus lasted 95 ticks, "Wave 3" lasted 86 ticks, and "Wave 5" lasted 83 ticks.

41. Each wave was progressively shorter which was the expectation in COMMENT # 592 of 980821.

42. Although the weight of the evidence suggests the above interpretation, it is still possible that "Wave 1B, Wave 3, and Wave 5" all combined to form the impulse waves of a larger 3rd Wave.

43. Under this scenario, it is only the 3rd Wave which has finished.

44. "Wave 1A" was but the first of the anticipated 5 waves.

45. If you're getting lost in all this and are ready to "wave" bye-bye, take a moment and review pages 283-92 in "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" for a bit of orientation.

46. To continue, this latter scenario is not favored at the moment and we're still wanting to emerge from this period with short positions.

47. It's somewhat interesting to note that this is the 199th week since the November lows when the Republican Revolution was initiated (LUCAS # = 199).

48. It's also the 17th year since the September, 1981 all-time low in this market and the 5th year (FIBONACCI # = 5) since the previous all-time high in September, 1993.

49. It's also the 8th year (FIBONACCI # = 8) since the major September, 1990 low.

50. This month is also the 6th SQUARE of 34 (6 X FIBONACCI # 34 = 204) number of months since the all-time low.

51. It's also 8 and 21 months since the last two major highs in 9801 and 9612.

52. To view the importance of these exact Anniversary Dates to this market, simply turn to page 358 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

53. If you've any doubt how to use this page, a quick review of pages 354-7 might be in order.

54. Another way of obtaining similar information is to simply turn to page 144 and check out the individual anniversaries of importance on Monday.

55. If you're not in a hurry, wait for a "set up".

UPDATED 19980901

COMMENT 1998-630

1. Let's revisit COMMENT # 620 of 980830.

2. New low in the spot contract only appears to have completed 5 waves down.

3. The pattern on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" was not executed today.

4. Note how the floor traders "ran the public stops" and immediately reversed the position.

5. This markets merits close monitoring, in my opinion.

UPDATED 19980901

COMMENT 1998-631

DON'T OVERLOOK THE 2 TRADES OF THE YEAR IN "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition" (see pages 372-81).

UPDATED 19980901

COMMENT 1998-632

1. The focus of the market appears to have shifted on a dime at the end of the Astro Point "cluster".

2. The main focus now appears to be anticipation over central bank infusions of liquidity due to the world-wide currency/stock market crisis.

3. Hence, today's rally in the CRB Index, the metals, the peak in the bonds, and the rally in stocks.

UPDATED 19980901

COMMENT 1998-633

1. Let's return to the stock market.

2. The DJIA appears to have just completed the "3rd of III" down.

3. If correct, we're now in wave "4 of III".

4. From today's low, the market has already completed an approximate .382 percent retracement of the move down from the 980819 high.

5. The 980819 high is marked in the chart as "Wave II".

6. If the interpretation is correct, the "III"rd wave is in the process of experiencing a normal 3rd wave extension (see page 284 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

7. Under this scenario, we should chop around for a few days before moving lower.

8. If the "4 of III" wave does not move higher (we'll find out very first thing tomorrow morning), and if "5 of III" is approximately equal to "3 of III" (a very plausible assumption given the expectation that "Wave III" is extending), the final target
for the end of "Wave III" is around 6500.

9. If "5 of III" extends relative to "3 of III", price will go much lower before it ends "Wave III".

10. If the interpretation shown in the chart is correct (and there is NO reason [as this is written] to believe that it is not), a PHI projection off "Wave I" yields around the 6600 area.

11. If this ideal scenario is to continue to unfold, price will not move appreciably above 7900 (today's intraday high was 7897.9).

12. The length of both waves "iii of III" and "v of III" will then be approximately 1300 DJIA intraday points (100 X FIBONACCI # 13 = 1300).

13. The entirety of "Wave III" will be 2100 intraday DJIA points (100 X FIBONACCI # 21 = 2100).

14. "Wave I" was approximately 1100 intraday DJIA points (100 X LUCAS # 11 = 1100).

15. "Wave II" rallied about 437 intraday DJIA points (100 X LUCAS # 4 = 400, SQ FIBONACCI # 21 = 441).

16. 2100 / 1100 = 1.909 (SQ RT [SQ PHI + 1.000] = SQ RT [ 2.618 + 1.000] =
SQ RT [ 3.618] = 1.902).

17. This is all pretty basic stuff, however, and isn't the reason I'm writing this COMMENT.

18. The reason for this COMMENT is to review how yesterday's (actually Sunday's) "P Point" ALIGNED WITH price and to update the Astro Points for the year.

19. The "P Point" is noted by the vertical mark below price in the chart of daily DJIA prices through today's close which follows this COMMENT.

20. Other selected points in this year's "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st & 2nd Half Editions" are marked in the chart.

21. What else needs be said?

22. The important concept to focus on now is page 398 in "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

23. Why?

24. Isn't it reasonable to assume that, should that expected Elliott Wave "IV"th wave play out as expected, it is likely to end when it ALIGNS with the forthcoming information on that page?

25. Of course, you COULD listen to CNBC . . .

26. But maybe we ought to turn to pages 291 and 295 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".

27. Does this information ALIGN WITH the Elliott Wave interpretation presented in this COMMENT or not?

28. Or maybe it's the reason for the interpretation presented?

29. How will you be better served - by treating these two pages as a road map (until the market itself shows otherwise) or by reading the pages of "The Wall Street Journal"?

30. Is this easy or what?

UPDATED 19980901

COMMENT 1998-634

The discovery period in TAUCHER V CFTC has been extended to September 4, 1998.

UPDATED 19980902

COMMENT 1998-635

1. Let's go back and revisit the chart in COMMENT # 618 of 980830 and # 596 of 980825.

2. The first wave measured 835 in the spot November contract, the third 1065, and the fifth 1000 points.

3. The entire move lasted 2790 points.

4. A PHI projection off the first wave low yielded 20094.

5. The low was close to this projection with its Monday bottom at 19960.

6. The low has (so far) held the spot futures 9208 low as expected.


UPDATED 19980902

COMMENT 1998-636

Do you see the irony in the table at the bottom of page 132 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition"?

UPDATED 19980902

COMMENT 1998-637

1. Let's turn to page 435 in "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".

2. Note how price traded to the low of the last several months in the December contract but did not break the previous low.

3. This low was made on 980803 (see page 398 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition").

4. Lots of price DIVERGENCES (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

5. Also, lots of momentum oscillator DIVERGENCES at the new lows in the spot October contract (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

6. Now look at the monthly "Inversion Cycle Index" on page 435.

7. As you can see in the "key" at the bottom of the page, this "Index" is shown by the "dotted line" in the chart.

8. The spot contract low last week occurred at a CUBE PHI # of weeks after the 9604 to 9610 six month rally.

9. In other words, if all the price action over the last 2 years is a corrective Elliott Wave "2 wave" move, it likely ended last week with the corrective move = 4.304 (CUB PHI = 4.236) of the 1996 upmove.

10. This is the 123rd week since the 9604 low (LUCAS # = 123).

11. The entirety of the correction, basis price, has been around .786 (1/SQ PHI).

12. 19 weeks down in the "A Wave" from the 1996 high to the early 1997 low.

13. 17 weeks down from the 1998 high to the 1998 low ("C Wave").

14. Average of the two = 18 (LUCAS # = 18).

15. 63 weeks = total correction (SQ FIBONACCI # 8 = 64).

16. Can you see that yesterday's price action provides a low risk entry point?

17. In fact, so long as the low of 980803 and 980901 of 5980 is not broken in the December contract, one should treat the price action from yesterday's low as a very small degree (hourly) "1 Wave" up and today's action into today's low and the close as a
"2 Wave" which may be (or is very close to being) complete.

18. In other words, so long as the low holds, it's time to get long (big time)!

19. Isn't this easy?

20. Isn't this fun?

UPDATED 19980902

COMMENT 1998-638

1. Some of you have written recently in a bit of a panic fearing the potential that spectacular gains of the last few weeks might be soon surrendered.

2. Nice attitude!

3. Read the sections on "How to Manage Your Money" in "The $upertrader's Reference Manual".

3. First, remove your original principal.

4. Second, diversify.

5. Give some to charity.

6. Also, consider some spreads.

7. (i.e., don't be so cheap - spring for a 1 month sample copy of "The Spread Investment Letter" - you can definitely afford it)!

8. Regarding the spreads, here's a neat candidate which is long page 419/short page 427 in "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" (long page 338/short the market in trade # 108 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition").

9. The reason why I focus on this type of special spread situation is because the spread right now is as low as it's been for years and years.

10. This is kind of a "Graham and Dodd" approach to the commodity markets.

11. Best way to use this approach is by applying the techniques in the book, "The Greatest Game in the World".

12. The trading matrixes in "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition", pages 380-1, provide the basics.

UPDATED 19980902

COMMENT 1998-639

1. As we've discussed many times, both in these COMMENTS and over the many years prior to these COMMENTS in my other publications, one of the most important indicators one can use to determine the health of a market is how the market reacts to NEWS.

2. For example, in the gold market, the initial reaction (supposedly) causing Friday's low was that Russian problems would lead to central bank Russian sales of gold.

3. These increased sales would, by this theory, lead to lower prices because of the increased supply.

4. Isn't the greater probability that this story was "planted" by "reliable sources" who widely disseminated the story to such widely-followed hoydens as CNBC and so on?

5. In fact, has CNBC not repeatedly, over the last week or so, spread this story?

6. Now think about it - if the circumstances in Russia are so dire that workers cannot be paid, why in the hell are they going to load and ship this gold for no return compensation?

7. Is this something you would do?

8. And who's going to work the existing mines (let alone open new ones) to replace existing supply?

9. Isn't it more likely that this was simply another story (like we've been repeatedly discussing in these COMMENTS) issued by the commercial dealers to uninformed, lap-dog reporters who should know better - stories reported today to the public as
"insightful" - stories which are quickly forgotten tomorrow when they don't work out?

10. Isn't it more likely that these stories were issued so that multi-year lows would be breached, the public positioned short, and then quickly reversed?

10. Isn't this scenario what's been happening over and over in one market after another the last month or so?

UPDATED 19980902

COMMENT 1998-640

1. Sorry to go off on a tangent, but you've got to realize that I'm well into the 8th year of trying to figure out how the Public Servants who executed a Constitutionally-mandated Oath of Office so easily violated their Sacred Vow and assaulted
protections secured for my publications by the First Amendment.

2. Hence, from my perspective, the current crisis is a very strong and severe repudiation of global federalism which has its origins many centuries ago.

3. In my opinion, the consequences of the Mexican bailout in 1982 and its implied guarantee of the Federal Reserve as global lender of last resort are just beginning to be felt.

4. The refusal of Congress to continue to throw dollars down the toilet by financing the IMF and continue to bailout reckless elitist lending appears to be the key to calling the bluff.

5. The ruse perpetrated by the IMF in Russia, where billions of dollars disappeared into foreign bank accounts just 3 weeks after the last IMF "bailout", were just too obvious to too many.

6. The problem really isn't the unwinding of the debt.

7. It's that the international bankers don't want to lose control of their "game" and are willing to inflict as much pain as is required to ensure that the game continues.

8. It's the same process which saw Baron Rothschild finance both countries in war so that the rewards of plunder were assured on one side and the rewards of indebtedness were assured on the other.

9. It's the same story of usury and the old Christian Tally blocks.

10. It's the financing of the Crusades.

11. It's the story of Colonel House, the Warburgs, the Rothschilds, and the train ride to Jekyll Island, Georgia, where the secret plan to establish the Federal Reserve and the Income Tax were conspired.

12. It even goes back before William the Conqueror in 1066 (then known as William the Bastard) who invaded England with but a force of 60,000 when the people so despised their own government that they would not raise arms in its defense but instead
allowed the "invaders" to merely walk into and "conquer" their territories - the thinking that the alternative could be no worse.

13. It is the story of the original common law and the Council of 10, 100, 1000 and so on which preceded the Norman Invasion.

14. The Bank for International Settlements - the banker's bank - appears to have been encouraging the flow of dollars overseas, the purchase of US Treasury Bonds with borrowed Yen, and massive central bank lending of gold.

15. The trader will always survive by quickly adapting to circumstances.

16. The chart which follows, however, is for the investor.

17. Note that, in Yen, the GO/JY ratio is not CONFIRMING the new lows in gold when priced in US Dollars (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

UPDATED 19980903

COMMENT 1998-641

1. OK.

2. If you've been following these COMMENTS for a while, you should already know that the market shown on pages 305 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" and 282 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition" is "set up".

3. What is meant by a "set up"?

4. Well, for instance, look at the dotted line on page 303 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" which shows the monthly "Inversion Cycle Index".

5. Now turn to page 305 and look at the same dotted line.

6. Note the ALIGNMENT.

7. Now look at the solid line on page 305.

8. Can you see what it's telling us about expected future direction of the "Linear Time Cycles" over the next few weeks?

9. This is the 36th week of the year.

10. Can you look under the "Cyclic Trends" section on page 305 and see whether we're about to experience a series of "B"s (for buys) or "S"s (for sell shorts).

11. Can you remember the last time we did this exercise in the US Dollar Index BEFORE the major break of the last few weeks or so?

12. You know where we're going next.

13. Turn to page 205-9 in "The $upertrader's Reference Manual".

14. Can you see how this market is "set up" for a sell signal?

15. Can you see how we place more confidence in such a "set up" of this particular PATTERN RECOGNITION entry trading technique because it begins from a point (the high of 980901 on Tuesday) which ALIGNED with expectations and projections (see previous
COMMENTS on this market)?

UPDATED 19980903

COMMENT 1998-642

1. Now let's consider the sister market in this complex.

2. This market also made a new intraday all-time high on Tuesday but did not make a new all-time CLOSING high.

3. Obviously, therefore, the market did not CLOSE in new all-time high territory.

4. It thus could still be argued that this market is not CONFIRMING the new highs in the market reviewed in the previous COMMENT (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").


UPDATED 19980903

COMMENT 1998-643

1. This PATTERN on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" is also "set up" in the market on pages 397 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" and 326 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

2. This market was recently reviewed in COMMENT #s 620 of 980830 and 630 of 980901.

3. All we've done so far is to trade back into the Tuesday/Wednesday gap up.

UPDATED 19980903

COMMENT 1998-644

1. The market reviewed on page 385 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" and 320 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition" appears to have possibly established a "running correction" over the last 3 days.

2. This correction is signaled by an Elliott Wave interpretation.

3. We assume the "first wave" high on Monday.

4. Tuesday low/Thursday high.

5. The key is how today's "B wave" high is far above the "1 wave" high of Monday.

6. We're now looking for the "C wave" low which should also form the end of the corrective "2 wave".

7. If all this is correct, "running corrections" usually signal very vibrant and explosive "3rd wave" movements.

8. This one, of course, is expected to the upside.

UPDATED 19980903

COMMENT 1998-645

1. Remember how we focused on the down trendlines in COMMENT #s 623, 624 and 625 to position long in the energy complex just right off the recent lows and prior to the strong rallies of this week?

2. Let's now do the same thing in the market on pages 405 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" and 330 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

3. Isn't this easy?

UPDATED 19980903

COMMENT 1998-646

1. Now look at the sister market on pages 409 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" and 332 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

2. The spot contract made a new low on 980901.

3. Isn't this what was SUPPOSED to have happened?

4. If this statement is not clear to you, see page 134 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

5. Go to Monday, the 31st.

6. See the 4th line down from the top in the middle of the Monday's box?

7. Now take a look at page 139.

8. Go to the "LAUNCHINGS" box and note the "FND LAUNCHINGS" entries.

9. The new spot contract lows of 980901 were not confirmed by momentum oscillators thereby forming an important DIVERGENCE (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

10. Note that the charts on pages 330 and 332 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition" would, at first glance, suggest we're still a tad early.

11. But note the strong seasonal # 132 listed on page 168.

UPDATED 19980903

COMMENT 1998-647

1. Now let's go back and revisit the COMMENT # 637 of yesterday.

2. Can you notice how today's new lows by 2 ticks in the December contract were quickly reversed?

3. The market even closed above the opening low of the day.

4. As we've been highlighting over and over again, this has been the characteristic of markets over recent history.

5. Take out major support/resistance levels and form spike tops/bottoms.

6. I've no doubt that several of you sharpies were prepared for a false breakout and anticipated this type action in this market yesterday given the recent repeated experience in other markets as highlighted in these COMMENTS.

UPDATED 19980903

COMMENT 1998-648

1. Now we turn to page 346 in "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

2. Note how the seasonals (which have definitely not been helpful so far this second half of the year in this market) are turning up from a bit of a dip.

3. This after the contract established new 23 year lows on Tuesday 980901 (see page 398 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition").

4. The market has "set up" with the trading technique on pages 205-9, but entry is quite far off the lows.

5. The market has reflected the very steep drop in the "Linear Cycle Index" on page 441 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" by dropping sharply over the summer.

6. Note how the "Index" as shown by the solid line at the bottom of the page is now bottoming and turning up, however, right as price is making multi-year lows.

7. The "Inversion Index" (the dotted line) on this same page would also suggest that we're a bit early.

UPDATED 19980903

COMMENT 1998-649

1. In the stocks, the market appears to have rallied in 5 waves off Tuesday's 980901 low.

2. This suggests that the sideways movement with a "rough" high anticipated in COMMENT # 633 of 980901 of around 7900 in the DJIA is likely something else EVEN THOUGH price has moved sideways since our discussion which is as anticipated.

3. The reason is because we were expecting that we were in a complex "4th wave".

4. Such movements should experience a series of "3 waves".

5. Most likely is either 5 "3 waves" in an a-b-c-d-e "contracting triangle" formation or an a-b-c where the "b wave" is lower than the low of Tuesday, the "a and b wave" break down into 3 waves each, and the "c wave", which completes the movement, finishes strong to the upside.

6. The 5 waves up from Tuesday's low changes all that.

7. The "5 up" pattern, IF CORRECT, signals that the upmove is either an "a" of a "5-3-5" "a-b-c" sequence or that it is a "first wave" up of more to come.

8. This latter expectation is not favored at the moment.

9. That leaves the "a-b-c" sequence until such time as the market tells us that something else is going on.

10. Given the pattern since Wednesday's high, therefore, we have to conclude that we're in a corrective "B wave" down.

11. If all this is correct, and if the "B wave" down is proportional, we should end the "B wave" down around noon CST tomorrow.

12. 944 in the SPU would be ideal.

13. From that price, the ideal would be a strong "C" wave rally.

14. Again, in the ideal world, this "C wave" would be projected to end around 14:30 Tuesday afternoon.

15. A price level of around 1022 would be ideal.

UPDATED 19980903

COMMENT 1998-650

I misdated yesterday's individual COMMENTS which should be corrected by the time you read this.

UPDATED 19980907

COMMENT 1998-651

Let's start this week off by turning to page 398 in "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

UPDATED 19980907

COMMENT 1998-652

1. Now let's go to page 144 in "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

2. See the "HI" listing for Monday the 7th?

3. This information tells us that the market listed made a major high on this date.

4. If you're new to the "Almanac", you can tell which market this is from the characters in the listing.

5. Once they're identified, look under the "SYMBOLS" on the next page to determine the market specified (see page 13).

6. The four numbers which then follow are in the format "YYMM" with the "YY" representing the year of the high and the "MM" representing the contract which made the high (see page 14).

7. The number in parenthesis is the price at which the high was recorded.

UPDATED 19980907

COMMENT 1998-653

1. Now let's turn to page 149 in "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

2. Look at the box in the middle of the page titled "ANNIVERSARIES THIS MONTH".

3. Can you see how the information is presented in three columns?

4. Now note the second row down in the left-most column.

5. Isn't this the same market we just reviewed in the previous COMMENT?

6. Now note the "UH", "UL", and "UT" columns.

7. These are the "Unweighted" high, low and total columns.

8. If one were to simply count the number of important major highs and lows in this market and keep track of the date of the month when the turns occurred, this is the information which would result.

9. This is the traditional way of determining such "anniversary date" information.

10. The total of the highs and lows is, of course, the "UT" (unweighted total) number.

11. Now look at the last 3 columns.

12. Note how the dates have changed.

13. These three columns present the high, low and total information for the "Weighted" "Anniversary Date Index" information.

14. Remember the major high we cited in the previous COMMENT - the one listed on page 144?

15. This was, until this year, the most important peak ever recorded in this market.

16. It was the all-time high.

17. Can you see how the "Weighted" "Anniversary Date Index" has shifted the dates this month in favor of this peak from the inconsequential ones listed in the "Unweighted" "Anniversary Date Index"?

18. Do you now understand why the "Weighted" "Anniversary Date Index" ALIGNS WITH so many major turns WHEN other turning point projections are present?

19. In other words, these points are signaling that major market turns occurred on these dates in the past.

20. Now let's turn to page 358 in "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

21. Look at the box at the top of the page.

22. Note that this is not only the most important "Weighted Anniversary Date" of the month, but, also, of the entire year (both 1st and 2nd halves).

23. This is VERY important information to this market.

24. If you recall the date of this low from the previous COMMENT, note that it is not only the all-time high, but that it is the anniversary of a 5 year high (FIBONACCI # = 5, 1/2 decade, etc.).

25. Now, here's the crucial question.

26. Is this "Weighted Anniversary Date Index" projection in ALIGNMENT with other important information reviewed recently in these COMMENTS or not?

UPDATED 19980907

COMMENT 1998-654

1. Now let's go back to page 135.

2. Note Sunday's information.

3. Can you see the listings at the very left for this day?

4. Note the second and third entries.

5. You will forever recall this COMMENT everytime you look up in the sky at this time of the month.

UPDATED 19980907

COMMENT 1998-655

1. Now let's look at a chart of hourly prices for the September US Treasury Bond contract.

2. This chart is presented at the end of this COMMENT with day session prices on top and overnight prices on bottom.

3. The two peaks shown in the chart by the "H" are the two which ALIGN in time.

4. These two peaks occurred 980831/980901.

5. Note how prices made a new all-time high in the day session (top price in the chart) but not in the overnight session.

6. This DIVERGENCE is shown by the upward sloping trendline in the upper chart and the downward sloping trendline in the lower chart (see pages 171-84 in "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

7. The difference in the two peaks made in these two sessions relative to their earlier peaks is crucial to the trading technique presented on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual".

8. I hate to present such information in an after-the-fact manner, but this is the story in this market relative to this trading technique.

9. It is as important as the momentum oscillator DIVERGENCE which has just occurred between daily RSI and day session prices (see pages 171-84 in "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

10. Daily RSI in this market peaked at 79 on 980831 and only reached 77 Friday at the new day session high.

UPDATED 19980907

COMMENT 1998-656

1. Let's go back to the previous chart and market.

2. If a major peak has just formed, we should expect a sharp Elliott Wave impulse wave down followed by a protracted, sideways correction.

3. This movement should be a "1st Wave" of a larger "1st Wave" movement (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

4. The problem with actual price action is shown in the upper chart.

5. Here we see that the entirety of the movement over the last few days appears to be an "A"/"B" movement.

6. Such movements are CORRECTIVE in nature.

7. They suggest that trend will resume after the correction is completed.

8. In the upper chart, the labeling suggests that the correction will end as soon as a "C" wave down ends.

9. The up trend would, under this interpretation, would then be expected to resume.

10. A different interpretation is presented in the lower chart.

11. Here we label the initial move down from the "H" peak as the "1st Wave".

12. Note how sharp and well defined the movement is and how this movement appears to have also been composed of 5 waves of smaller degree (in other words, if we used a 4 or 16 minute chart, we would expect to clearly see these 5 waves down).

13. The rest of the movement is, under this interpretation, assumed to be a corrective "2nd Wave".

UPDATED 19980907

COMMENT 1998-657

1. Let's see how these interpretations play out in terms of TIME.

2. In the upper chart, the "A" wave required 11 trading hours (LUCAS # = 11).

3. The "B" wave required 13 trading hours (FIBONACCI # = 13).

4. Hence, whether or not the movement is an "A-B" correction as presented in the upper chart or a "1-2" impulsive sequence as presented in the lower chart, the next move is expected to be DOWN.

5. The only question is whether or not the down move will complete a "C" wave or develop into an impulsive "3" wave.

6. In the lower chart, the "1" wave required 13 trading hours (FIBONACCI # = 13).

7. The "A" wave required 2 hours, the "C" wave 4 hours (RATIO = 2.000).

8. The TIME since the "H" wave high = 84 trading hours (4 X FIBONACCI # 21 = 84).

9. From the "H" to the low of the move, however, was 40 trading hours (FIBONACCI # 5 X FIBONACCI # 8 = 40, 2 X FIBONACCI # 21 = 42).

10. 44 trading hours from the low to the "2" (LUCAS # 4 X LUCAS # 11 = 44, 2 X FIBONACCI # 21 = 42).

11. Since so much else favors a peak, we have to believe that the interpretation in the lower chart is showing us the way UNTIL SUCH TIME AS THE MARKET SHOWS US OTHERWISE.

12. Obviously, we will want to monitor price very closely for signs of a reversal to the upside should a clear 5 waves down unfold as expected.

13. This will be the next point of decision.

UPDATED 19980907

COMMENT 1998-658

1. Let's go back to the currencies.

2. COMMENT # 609 of 980827 reviewed the Swiss Franc and was particularly instructive in reviewing the importance of monthly/weekly "Inversion Cycle" ALIGNMENTS at retests of major high/low points.

3. Let's review that COMMENT now.

4. The chart which follows shows daily prices for the spot SF futures contract.

5. The low shown to the left of the chart is a 5 year low.

6. Note how price just barely made a new low in July at Point "B".

7. This false breakout has been the tendency of most markets this summer as has been repeatedly noted in these COMMENTS.

8. The down trendline shown in the chart which price just broke is a major channel down trendline off the 1995 high.

9. In spite of this major trendline break, it's not clear that the MAJOR trend has reversed.

10. For example, note the "A-B" Elliott Wave PATTERN shown in the chart.

11. This PATTERN implies that this market is in a multi-year CORRECTIVE sequence.

12. If correct, this interpretation would place us in the "C" wave now.

13. The "C" wave should be composed of a clear 5 waves up.

14. The "C" wave should end a little higher than the "A" wave shown in the chart.

15. The "A" wave required 67 trading days (2 X FIBONACCI # 34 = 68).

16. The "B" wave required 166 trading days (8 X FIBONACCI # 21 = 168).

17. 233 trading days total (FIBONACCI # = 233).

18. See the "1"/"2" Elliott Wave sequence presented in the chart?

19. This is the same sequence which was presented in COMMENT # 609.

20. PHI X "Wave 1" (300 ticks) and added to the "Wave 2" low of 6618 in the September contract projects to 7103 in day session prices.

20. This is the MINIMUM anticipated move for the "3rd Wave".

21. The high Thursday was 7105, just 2 ticks above the 7103 projection.

22. It is thus LIKELY that the "3rd Wave" was completed Thursday.

23. Tomorrow (Tuesday) is the 42nd trading day since the July low (2 X FIBONACCI # 21 = 42).

24. 1/PHI X 67 (the number of trading days in the "A Wave" shown in the chart) = 41 trading days.

25. PHI X "Wave 1" (300 ticks) and added to the "Wave 1" high of 6810 in the September contract projects to 7295 in day session prices.

26. The horizontal line shown in the chart just above Point "A" is at 7260.

27. The next horizontal line is at 7471 and is the .618 retracement of the entire decline since the 1995 high.

28. The 7295 projection is about 37 ticks above the "Point A" high.

29. The "B" wave low is about 23 ticks below the 1997 low.

30. Telling information - should be the MINIMUM expectation of the entire move up from the July low.

31. Isn't this easy?

32. Isn't this fun?

UPDATED 19980907

COMMENT 1998-659

1. In COMMENT # 609, we discussed the importance of the "cluster" of "Inversion Cycle Index" projections which were ALIGNING across-the-board in the currency markets (see Point # 19 of COMMENT # 609 on 980827).

2. These projections were presented on page 169 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".

3. You should be able to use the information in the previous COMMENT on each of the currencies reviewed in COMMENT # 609 to provide anticipated time and price targets/projections.

UPDATED 19980907

COMMENT 1998-660

1. The chart at the end of this COMMENT shows 16 minute bars for the September S&P 500 futures contract.

2. This is a continuation of the discussion presented 980901 in COMMENT # 633 and 980903 in COMMENT # 649.

3. Prices are up sharply in the overseas market.

4. The large move up from the 980901 low required 35 16 minute periods (FIBONACCI # = 34).

5. The decline to Friday's low required 62 periods (3 X FIBONACCI # 21 = 63).

6. The "cross" in the chart shows the target discussed in COMMENT # 649.

7. As you can see, price didn't quite decline as much as anticipated and ate up a little more time than the ideal scenario, but was basically in line with the downward CORRECTIVE expectation.

8. We're now expecting the "C" wave up.

9. This movement would normally be expected to carry to the upper up trendline shown in the chart.

10. A key resistance area, however, will be at the "A Wave" peak.

11. If the "A Wave" peak is not exceeded, expect a "D" down and an "E" up completing the sideways move.

12. If this is the case, neither the "A Wave" high nor the 980901 low should be exceeded prior to the "4th Wave" being complete.

13. An outside possibility is that the movement up shown in the chart is the first of much more to come on the upside.

14. Low probability of this occurring as this is written, but, as always, the market will let us know what is occurring.

15. The targets reviewed in COMMENT # 633 of 980901 are still the favored scenario.

16. All price action of the last few days is in accordance with the expectation as originally presented in COMMENT # 633 of 980901 and COMMENT # 649 of 980903.

UPDATED 19980908

COMMENT 1998-661

I misnumbered COMMENT #s 658 forward yesterday and had to renumber if you're printing them out.

UPDATED 19980908

COMMENT 1998-662

1. In yesterday's COMMENTS, I forgot to review the market on pages 319 & 321 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" and 288 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

2. This market did not make a new high Friday in either the day or overnight session.

3. It thereby did not CONFIRM the movement in its sister market discussed at length yesterday in several COMMENTS (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reverence Manual").

4. See also "The Progression of Prices" on pages 382-8 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition").

UPDATED 19980908

COMMENT 1998-663

1. The COMMENT which follows shows the September Japanese Yen.

2. This continues the discussion in COMMENT # 658 of yesterday.

3. The PATTERN shows what is expected to eventually occur in the SF (as regards the breaking of the assumed "A" wave high).

4. The horizontal line shows the 50 percent retracement of the down move from 980210 to 980811 (see pages 185-7 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

5. The line's just a little above "Point A".

6. This down move lasted 182 calendar days (1/2 year).

7. At the top of the chart, we take the "SQUARING" technique presented on the bottom of page 187 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" and lay it on its side.

8. The angles are created from a down channel trendline off "Point A" and its symmetrical reflection drawn up from "Point A".

9. As drawn in the chart, the assumption is that the market is currently moving up in a possible "C" wave.

10. Note that this "C" wave is much shorter than that reviewed yesterday in COMMENT # 658.

11. Either way, as discussed yesterday, the market should be finishing up, or has just finished, a 3rd wave up.

UPDATED 19980908

COMMENT 1998-664

1. Now that we've experienced turns in several markets in accordance with our expectations, we want to begin using such techniques as the THRUST trading technique presented on pages 115-6 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" to enter after retests
over the next few days.

UPDATED 19980908

COMMENT 1998-665

1. The chart which follows shows hourly day session prices for the day session of the September S&P 500.

2. The chart continues the discussion of the last few days in COMMENT #s 633, 649, and 660.

3. The market traded up to 1028 today, just a tad above the 1022 target of COMMENT # 649 on 980903.

4. The vertical line shown in the chart is the same one which has been projected in recent charts.

5. It contains the projection for 14:30 this afternoon.

6. Hence, the market has achieved its price target projected in COMMENT # 649 and its time target projected in the same COMMENT.

7. It has done so, however, during a veritable stampede into stocks.

8. The 14:30 hour culminated the most points gained ever in the DJIA for a day's trading.

9. The "A" wave projection in COMMENT # 633 that the DJIA would not trade appreciably above the 7900 level if our analysis was correct was a severe test of faith.

10. The "B" wave low on Friday was a second test of faith.

11. The "C" wave high today is a third test of faith.

12. If the analysis is correct, that's it.

13. We've just finished "Wave IV".

14. We'll know quickly tomorrow.

15. If you recall, in COMMENT # 633, and right in the middle of the biggest stock market panic ever, our original expectation was that "Wave III" to the downside had ended.

16. We discussed the TIME when (assuming our interpretation continues to be correct) "Wave IV" should end.

17. See page 398 in "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

18. Now go to pages 236-8 in "The $upertrader's Reference Manual".

19. The horizontal lines in the middle of the chart show the 50 percent retracement level and .618 retracement level of "Wave III" and of the entire move down since the July high.

.

UPDATED 19980909

COMMENT 1998-666

I forgot to point out yesterday that, in trading hours, the rally to Tuesday's last hour's high in the DJIA was 34 hours (FIBONACCI # = 34).

UPDATED 19980909

COMMENT 1998-667

1. The chart at the end of this COMMENT shows hourly DJIA prices.

2. It continues the discussion of COMMENT #s 590 of 980820, 605 of 980826, and 633 of 980901, among others (i.e., 649, 660 and 665).

3. The first 3 COMMENTS should be reviewed now for orientation.

4. The "C of II" wave projection in COMMENT # 590 is shown in the chart as originally presented.

5. As can be seen, the market peaked a bit lower and a tad earlier than projected, but this early and lower peaking was the exact scenario reviewed in Point #s 7 - 12 of COMMENT # 590 of 980820.

6. The actual "C of II" and the "II Wave" are, of course, a little to the left of the "Point C" shown in the chart.

7. From "Point II", the market is labeled in accordance with recent COMMENTS and the expectations presented in those COMMENTS.

8. In TIME, IF "Wave III" equals the 116 hours of "Wave I", "Wave III" will end around 12:30 Friday.

9. As reviewed in COMMENT # 605, tomorrow 980910 is the 55th calendar day from the 980717 all-time closing high in the DJIA.

10. Sunday 980913 is the 55th calendar day since the 980720 intraday high in the DJIA.

11. One should recall that, IF everything is labeled correctly, and IF the PRICE and TIME targets presented in this and recent COMMENTS are achieved, it will only be "Wave III" that ends WHEN and IF the anticipated targets are attained.

12. The key factor in this interpretation, as it has been all along since the 980717 peak, is that price is acting as it should - i.e., it is moving down in accordance with the expectation.

13. The analyst always has several alternatives from which to choose.

14. It is the action of price itself which CONFIRMS which of several alternatives is the likely path that price will follow.

15. We thus must always ask, "What would it take to invalidate the expectation?"

16. In this case, as this is written, it would take a move above the "Wave 4" point shown in the chart.

17. RISK is thus very little at this time.

18. Note, because of the TIME factors reviewed in this COMMENT, the market must begin moving DOWN NOW for the expectation to become reality.

UPDATED 19980909

COMMENT 1998-668

1. The following chart shows daily prices for the market shown on page 355 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".

2. Can you see how the solid line, the "Linear Cycle Index", at the bottom of the chart suggested a major low in this market this past month?

3. Can you see in the chart how the low just above "Point B" was made this last month, right on schedule?

4. October prices are shown.

5. The lower horizontal line shows the 1998 low in this market.

6. The second lower horizontal line shows the June low.

7. 53 trading days since the June low to the "Point B" low (FIBONACCI # = 55).

8. The "A" and "B" Elliott Wave labels suggest we've begun a "C" wave up.

9. The "1" and "2" labels suggest that we are entering the "3rd Wave" up in this market.

10. Third waves are the most explosive and the ones we usually want to play.

11. The projection, like that of the currencies in recent COMMENTS, suggests a move back above the "A Point" shown in the chart.

12. This market should lead the complex.

13. The others should follow.

14. Hence, don't be afraid to add to positions in this and the other markets.

UPDATED 19980909

COMMENT 1998-669

1. Let's return to the market in COMMENT # 643.

2. This market made a new low in the spot October contract today.

3. Very disappointing.

4. Let's review the information in COMMENT # 643.

5. Although October made a new low, this new low was not CONFIRMED in the March and July contracts (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

6. The spot contract also did not close in new low territory.

7. Momentum oscillators such as RSI and Slow Stochastics have not CONFIRMED the new low in the spot contract (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

8. Let's continue to watch for an upside reversal.

UPDATED 19980911

COMMENT 1998-670

Don't forget every-so-often to visit page 398 in "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

UPDATED 19980911

COMMENT 1998-671

1. The following chart of 16 minute bars for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) are shown as of about 09:15 Friday morning for the last couple of weeks or so.

2. The President delivered his most recent contrition speech this morning and the market has rallied on the NEWS.

3. We have discussed recently how the S&P 500 chart on page 295 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Almanac" appears to be showing us the way.

4. Can you see the "Linear Cycle Index" presented in the chart at the bottom of page 295?

5. The index is represented by the solid line in the chart.

6. Note how both the index and the stock market peaked in July which is in accordance with the expectation and projection.

7. Since the action of the market itself is in accordance with the projection after the July peak, we have to assume that the projection will continue to show us the way UNTIL such time as the market itself proves otherwise.

8. We thus look for short term trading techniques which fit this expectation.

9. One is the Elliott Wave.

10. Are the "III"/"IV" shown in the chart in accordance with the expectation on page 295 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Almanac" or not?

11. If labeled correctly, then the next most likely scenario which is in accordance with our larger expectation on page 295 of the "Cycles Book" is that the DJIA has begun "Wave V" down.

12. The probable first of an expected 5 waves down is shown in the chart.

13. This decline covered 440.2 DJIA intraday points (SQ FIBONACCI # 21 = 441).

14. PHI X 440.2 = 712.2 (100 X LUCAS # 7 = 700, FIBONACCI # 8 X FIBONACCI # 89 = 712).

15. The low of "Wave 1 of V" = 7549.6.

16. 7549.6 - 712.2 = 6837.4 (200 X FIBONACCI # 34 = 6800).

17. The horizontal line in the chart shows a .618 RETRACEMENT of "Wave 1 of V".

18. As you can see, this retracement level has, so far, halted the upside rally to the President's speech.

19. "Wave IV" required 120 16 minute bars.

20. "Wave 1 of V" required 40 16 minute bars.

21. 120 / 40 = 3.000.

22. Is it possible that the market bottomed this morning instead of yesterday afternoon?

23. Absolutely, in which case more time and, possibly, a higher price will be required to complete the "2" wave.

24. Is it possible that the "1 Wave" shown in the chart completes a very abbreviated "Wave V" and the entire move down since the July high?

25. Yes, but not high probability that this is the case.

26. The suggestion is thus that the market is most likely, as this is written, to continue lower.

27. The next stopping point, so long as the "Point 2" high shown in the chart is not broken to the upside, should be around the 6800 level.

28. Final targets were stated in COMMENT # 633 of 980901 and remain as stated.

29. You may recall in COMMENT # 633 where we discussed the likely peaking of the "Wave IV" CORRECTION (see the chart) in Point #s 22, 23, and 24.

30. The correction was expected in that COMMENT to ALIGN WITH the next Astro Point.

31. The morning of the next Astro Point occurred just a handful of trading periods after the "Wave IV" high shown in the chart and, thus, ALIGNED WITH the anticipated end of the correction.

32. If the "Wave 2" high is later broken in the day, we'll have to reassess.

33. Such entry techniques as that shown on pages 236-7 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" entitled "Entering and Exiting Positions" is appropriate.

UPDATED 19980913

COMMENT 1998-672

1. The chart which follows shows daily prices for the September Swiss Franc.

2. In COMMENT # 658 of 980907, we reviewed the high which is shown at "Point 3" in the chart.

3. The target for "Point 3" was 7103, the market peaked at 7103.

4. 7295 was also projected as the next likely target in this market.

5. The market peaked Thursday in the overnight market at 7297.

6. The entire move from the July low to Thursday's high required 142 calendar days (FIBONACCI # = 144).

7. The move from the "Point 2" low shown in the chart to Thursday's high required 22 calendar days (FIBONACCI # = 21).

8. Obviously, if you caught just half this move, you can pay for the next several years' "Cycles Books" and "Almanacs".

9. The "structure", however, does not appear pleasing as the move from the "Point 3" high to the "Point 4" low appears disproportionate in both PRICE and TIME to the "2 Wave" low.

10. Hence, although the move shown is possibly complete, it is more likely that the high shown in the chart will only mark a protracted pause and that a final push to the upside will follow.

11. The chart of the "Linear Cycle Index" on the bottom of page 341 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" should prove helpful as to when the next major peak is expected.

UPDATED 19980913

COMMENT 1998-673

1. The following chart shows hourly September US Treasury Bonds.

2. In COMMENT # 655 of 980907, we discussed the DIVERGENCE which was forming between the overnight and day sessions as presented in the chart which accompanied that COMMENT.

3. At the time, points "A" and "B" shown in the chart below had already formed as was presented in the day session chart.

4. "Point 4" formed soon afterwards and the rally to "Point 5" shortly ensued.

5. In time, the entirety of the move shown in the chart lasted 205 trading hours (LUCAS # = 199).

6. 52 hours in "Wave 1" (FIBONACCI # = 52), 85 in "Wave 3" (FIBONACCI # = 89), and 16 in "Wave 5" (FIBONACCI # = 13).

7. In price, 95, 134 and 107 32nds in each of the three waves.

8. "Wave 1" and "Wave 5" are thus approximately equal in price (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" for the significance of these numbers).

9. See page 398 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition" in relation to the 980911 "Point 5" high shown in the chart.

10. I know I needn't bore you to death with stories of the monthly/weekly "Inversion Cycle" ALIGNMENTS on page 173 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" since they've been thoroughly aired of late in these COMMENTS.

11. If you're a newcomer, however, you might want to pay particular attention to the information on this page and the solid and dotted lines at the bottom of pages 303 and 305 of the same book.

12. In support of this topping expectation is the failure of momentum oscillators such as RSI to CONFIRM today's early morning high as opposed to the peaks established at the 980831 peak.

UPDATED 19980913

COMMENT 1998-674

1. The chart which follows shows cash prices for the US Dollar Index and updates the original presentation reviewed in COMMENT # 616 on 980829.

2. In that COMMENT, we discussed the probability that this market was likely to decline to 9500 or so.

3. The low in this index today was 9544.

4. If the SF discussed in COMMENT # 672 is ready to pause or reverse, this market should also be prepared to do the same.

UPDATED 19980913

COMMENT 1998-675

1. DON'T OVERLOOK THAT FIRST "TRADE OF THE YEAR"!

2. See pages 372-5 and 380 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

UPDATED 19980914

COMMENT 1998-676

1. The chart which follows shows hourly December S&P 500 prices.

2. Prices are shown through the first couple of hours Monday morning.

3. The question is whether or not there is a reasonable expectation for continued decline given Friday's ability to trade through the early morning high (see COMMENT # 671 of 980911).

4. Presently, the answer is that such decline is the most probable outcome, but if it is to occur, the market should not move much further in either price or time than it is this morning.

5. Specifically, the upper up trendline of the up channel and the horizontal line shown in the middle of the chart which shows the .618 price retracement of the assumed "III Wave" down we've been assuming of late should provide strong resistance.

6. From a "wave" perspective, it appears that the "A2-B2-C2" pattern was but one big "B1" "wave".

7. This would mean that the "C1 wave" is what's finishing up now.

8. The "C1" should be proportional to the "A1 wave".

9. In time, they're equal the hour of 10:30 this morning.

10. At that time, price is equal at the upper up trendline.

11. The NEWS this weekend assumes that all is behind us regarding the Presidential crisis, that the currency devaluations have pretty much run their course, and that the worst is behind us.

UPDATED 19980914

COMMENT 1998-677

The previous COMMENT was erroneously posted to the end of yesterday's COMMENTS and has been correctly moved to today's.

UPDATED 19980914

COMMENT 1998-678

1. Let's turn to page 338 in "The $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

2. Note the solid "black" arrow at the top of the page.

3. This arrow shows that seasonals have been particularly strong to the upside this time of the year over each of the last 5 years.

4. To locate the specific information regarding this market, we can look at the "Seasonals" listing on the opposite page.

5. Note trade # 106 (5th column) from 915 to 1015 (September 15 to October 15).

6. We can turn to the 38th week of the year on page 152 (this week) and see where the pertinent seasonal information regarding this market is listed.

7. Can you also apply this same information to the two "friends" which follow in this listing?

8. Now can you see how the "THRUST" entry technique presented on pages 115-6 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" provided low-risk entry into this market today?

9. Isn't this easy?

UPDATED 19980915

COMMENT 1998-679

1. Let's look at the two markets in seasonal #s 103 and 104 on page 152 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

2. Can you see how these two listings favor our second "TRADE OF THE YEAR"?

3. See pages 375-9 and 381 for more information.

UPDATED 19980915

COMMENT 1998-680

1. Now turn to page 150 in "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

2. Look at the anniversary date listings for Tuesday.

3. (They're the "HI" and "LO" listings).

4. Note that first market in the "HI"s.

5. If one were just scanning the information this week, it would be difficult to NOT notice these important anniversary dates in this market.

6. Let's turn to page 358 and see how important this date has been to this market historically.

7. You can see the market listed to the far right in the third row of markets.

8. Can you see the listing for September?

9. Is this an important anniversary date for this market historically?

10. Now look at the top of the box of monthly listings and note the yearly listings.

11. Note that, for the total number of important turns which have historically occurred in this market, this date has experienced more than any other date of the year.

12. Makes the recent comments in this market take on a bit more importance.

13. Of course, if the turn holds, as it appears it will, one then must consider the implications for all markets.

UPDATED 19980915

COMMENT 1998-681

1. Volume on this stock market "rally" over the last two weeks has been anemic.

2. It has not CONFIRMED the price movement up (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

UPDATED 19980915

COMMENT 1998-682

1. The market has been somewhat fixated on Federal Reserve Board Chairman Greenspan's testimony which occurs Wednesday at noon CDT.

2. The trading technique on pages 236-7 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" is thus appropriate in the stock indexes today.

UPDATED 19980915

COMMENT 1998-683

1. What was Congress doing today taking advice from one who has lost $ 2 Billion this year?

2. And can you believe that the proposed solution is that, since the IMF, World Bank, and so on have proven incapable of "managing" (as in, controlling) the world's currency markets, the solution must be an even larger "world agency".

3. Make no mistake about it - with currency control comes loss of liberty.

4. Are you aware that the IMF has contributed $ 143 Billion to but four of its most important "cases" this year?

5. They are, Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, and Russia.

6. Two of the four, Indonesia and Russia, have totally collapsed.

7. The IMF's "solution" has generally consisted of gradual currency devaluation, higher interest rates, and higher taxes in order to prevent capital flight and bale out its international banking buddies.

8. This principle is prima facie false.

9. The reason is that capital flows INTO a country which is growing and inhaling capital to support its growth.

10. Low rates - for both taxes and interest rates - coupled with the rule of law create growth.

11. The key is to allow small corrections to periodically occur so that the system may be cleansed of inefficient players.

12. The savings and loan crisis in the United States, for instance, occurred AFTER the FSLIC (Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corp.) increased its loan guarantees dramatically in the early 1980s thereby encouraging a slew of speculative loans.

UPDATED 19980916

COMMENT 1998-684

1. The chart shows 16 minute bars for December US Treasury Bond prices since the 980911 all-time high (day session).

2. If the information we've been discussing over the last several days in these COMMENTS is correct, then the Elliott Wave information shown in the chart is a reasonable expectation.

3. Under this assumption, we are in the process of completing a "2 Wave".

4. In terms of TIME, the length of the "A Wave" would suggest a peak in the "C of 2 Wave" roughly in the 08:15 or so period tomorrow morning.

5. IF the two are EQUAL in time.

6. In terms of TIME, the "2 Wave" would be PHI times the length of the assumed "1 Wave" down at about 08:15 or so CDT tomorrow morning.

7. In terms of PRICE, it is reasonable to expect that a "flat" PATTERN will be formed.

8. You may wish to visit some recent JY and SF COMMENTS to view the expectation.

9. In terms of this market, should the "C of 2" wave end the same distance above "Point A" as "Point B" is below the assumed "1 Wave" low, price will end its "2 Wave" correction at 12827.

10. The horizontal lines in the middle of the chart show the .500 and .618 retracements.

11. IF all this works out, it would be appropriate to use the "Entering and Exiting Positions" technique presented on pages 236-7 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual".

12. Nothing fancy here - we're still following the road map presented in the "Linear Cycle Index" on page 305 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" and the monthly/weekly "Inversion Cycle Index" ALIGNMENT presented on page 173.

UPDATED 19980916

COMMENT 1998-685

1. The chart shows hourly S&P 500 prices since the 980901 low.

2. 76 total trading hours (LUCAS # = 76).

3. 38 total trading hours in the "B Wave" (2 X 38 = 76).

4. 10 total trading hours in the "A Wave" (LUCAS # = 11).

5. 28 total trading yours in the "C Wave" to date (LUCAS # = 29).

6. It's POSSIBLE to make a case that the assumed "C Wave" (which is the movement up since the "B Wave" low has completed, or soon will complete, 5 waves up.

7. If this interpretation is the correct one, the assumption is that the "C Wave" would complete the "IV Wave" we've been discussing of late in these COMMENTS.

8. The chart continues the Elliott Wave PATTERN discussed in such recent COMMENTS as 665 and 676.

9. The horizontal line in the chart shows the .618 retracement level presented in recent COMMENTS.

10. The recently discussed up channel is also presented and updated.

11. Obviously, there is little room on the upside for the "IV Wave" scenario to work.

12. We're running out of both PRICE AND TIME.

UPDATED 19980916

COMMENT 1998-686

1. Should we not "Trust the Thrust" in the complex represented by the market on page 361 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" (see the dotted line in the chart) and 308 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition"?

2. This invaluable trading technique is presented on pages 115-6 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual".

UPDATED 19980920

COMMENT 1998-687

1. The chart shows hourly bars for the December S&P 500 futures contract.

2. It suggests that all the movement since the 980901 low has been an against-the-(down)-trend correction.

3. This interpretation is in accordance with the expectation presented on page 295 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".

4. Note the "solid line" shown in the chart (the "Cycle Index" projection).

5. If this interpretation is correct, it suggests we are in the process of moving lower.

6. The acceleration phase, however, is likely to coincide with the release of the President's tapes Monday morning.

7. In the last 2 weeks, the PATTERN has been to move lower in anticipation of adverse NEWS for the President, but to quickly recover once the event has passed.

8. If we do move lower, I wouldn't expect that we should be able to move back into Friday's day session range which recorded a 102100 low.

9. Note that the "Wave 3 of III" label is in accordance with our repeated discussion in these COMMENTS.

10. The "4" at last Wednesday's high is, under this scenario, "Wave 4 of III".

11. The up channel shown in the chart is also as originally presented as is the horizontal line in the middle of the chart, the .618 percent retracement.

12. Traders should note that the PATTERN entry trading technique shown on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" is appropriate for this market.

UPDATED 19980920

COMMENT 1998-688

The entry trading technique shown on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" is also appropriate for the two markets shown on pages 305 and 321 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".

UPDATED 19980920

COMMENT 1998-689

1. We always have to be mindful of upcoming monthly/weekly "Inversion Index" ALIGNMENTS.

2. These ALIGNMENTS can be easily noted by simply turning the weekly pages of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Times Cycles" ahead a few weeks and glancing at those markets listed both in the "MIC" and "WIC" listings for the appropriate week.

3. In similar manner, we want to ALWAYS observe how a market is reacting which has been listed for PAST weeks.

4. As an example, let's turn to page 177.

5. Note the last "WIC" (weekly) listing.

6. Can you see how this market is ALIGNED with the "MIC" (monthly) listing?

7. Note the big spike up on Friday 980911 in this market after having made a new weekly low.

8. Note also how this low was a RETEST of the low made 980901 (see page 398 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

9. Now turn to page 134.

10. Can you see where this market is listed under "FND"?

11. Now turn to page 139.

12. Can you see this market listed under the "FND LAUNCHINGS" section (it is at the bottom of the 2nd column).

13. November is currently the most liquid market for this complex.

UPDATED 19980920

COMMENT 1998-690

1. Now let's turn to page 162 in "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

2. Let's look at the "ALMANAC VI" trading system information at the bottom of the page.

3. Can you note listing # 23?

4. Now let's turn to page 397 in "The $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".

5. Can you see how the "ALMANAC VI" trading system and the "Cycle Index" are both pointing upwards and are in ALIGNMENT?

UPDATED 19980923

COMMENT 1998-691

1. The chart shows daily December US Treasury Bond prices.

2. As can be seen, the up trendline has become quite important to this market.

3. Incredibly, daily momentum as measured by a 14 day RSI peaked way back on 980902 (the "down arrow" shown in the chart) and 7 trading days later on slow stochastics and other such indicators.

4. Such DIVERGENCES are usually quite important to markets (see pages 171-84 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition").

5. Traders should note that the PATTERN entry trading technique shown on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" is appropriate for this market.

6. Same applies in the notes.

UPDATED 19980923

COMMENT 1998-692

1. The chart shows hourly prices for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

2. The horizontal line in the chart shows the .382 retracement of the entire downmove from the 980720 high to the 980901 low (intraday basis on both).

3. The horizontal down trendline at today's high is drawn off the 980720 high and the peak of 980825.

4. For the DJIA, this is an obvious point of resistance.

5. Other averages, however, have well exceeded this equivalent point of resistance.

6. The December S&P 500, for instance, has not only broken, but has closed well above this down trendline.

7. The equivalent up channel shown in COMMENT # 687 of 980920 is presented in the chart.

8. One possible Elliott Wave pattern is that two "A-B-C" corrective formations have formed connected by the "X" wave shown in the chart.

9. We used to joke, however, that "X" waves are "don't know" waves.

10. In other words, with the other indexes having already broken above the down trendline, the implication is that this is not a high probability scenario.

11. It is possible, however.

UPDATED 19980923

COMMENT 1998-693

These COMMENTS will possibly not be posted on a timely basis.

UPDATED 19980924

COMMENT 1998-694

1. If you will take a moment to revisit COMMENT # 616 of 980829, you'll see how the "ALMANAC VI" trading system (see pages 369-71 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition") was used in these COMMENTS to provide a short entry signal in the US Dollar Index just 3 days off the high of this decade and just before panic selling enveloped the dollar.

2. The reason I'm bringing this to your attention is because the "ALMANAC VI" trading system is still short this market, though the stop is quite close.

3. This application is an example of using the "ALMANAC VI" trading system in situations which do not involve any of the original 10 markets presented in the study.

4. Further, there's another reason for this observation, regardless of whether you heeded the information and got short or not.

5. As we scan the markets this evening, what appears of interest is that it is VERY possible that a number of hard asset markets (commodities) are completing or have just completed retest corrections (in most cases, of late August/early September multi-year lows) and are in position to accelerate advances.

6. We'll spotlight a few of these markets in this discussion.

UPDATED 19980924

COMMENT 1998-695

1. Let's turn to page 449 in "The 1998 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".

2. Hmmmm!

3. Isn't this interesting?

4. Can you see the solid line which is projecting a bottom this week?

5. Can you see the dotted line which is projecting a market turn this week?

6. Do you understand that the solid line is the "Linear Cycle Index" while the dotted line is the "Inversion Cycle Index"?

7. If you were not aware of this information, the lines are identified at the bottom of the page in the "key".

8. Can you see in the chart below of daily prices that this market made a 2 week low on Monday and quickly reversed to the upside?

9. Wouldn't it fit well with the cycle projections if Monday's low were to hold and the market to then rally upwards?

10. Let's pretend that such is what's going to happen in this market so long as it holds the up trendline shown in the chart.

11. Can you see the initial surge up and the "A-B-C" correction?

12. Doesn't this PATTERN suggest that the market completed a corrective Elliott Wave "2 Wave" formation on Monday?

13. Wasn't Monday's turn on an "A Point" day (see page 398 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition").

14. The three horizontal lines in the chart show the .382, .500, and .618 retracement levels.

15. Isn't this reversal in accordance with the expectation as presented in COMMENT #s 594 of 980824, 607 of 980826, 632 of 980901, and 635 of 980902?

16. Can you see how insightful the Elliott Wave interpretation as originally shown in the chart by the "1-2-3-4" sequence ALIGNED WITH the other information to suggest a major market turn at the completion of the "5 Wave"?

17. Can you see how the THRUST entry technique provided entry on the very day of the assumed "2 Wave" low on Monday?

18. Isn't this fun?

19. Isn't this easy?

20. The most important lesson in this COMMENT is the ALIGNMENT of an Elliott Wave "2 Wave" low with a projected "Linear Time Cycle Index" low which is occurring at a price which is ABOVE the low at the end of last month.

UPDATED 19980924

COMMENT 1998-696

1. If the above is correct, then let's turn to the two markets on pages 320 and 326 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

2. You can also view these markets on pages 385 and 397 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".

3. These two markets are especially interesting because of the entry trading technique on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual".

UPDATED 19980924

COMMENT 1998-697

1. The complex which best epitomizes the expectation described above is that presented on pages 345, 349, 353, 357 and 361 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" and 300, 302, 304, 306 and 308 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

2. Note in the "Year-At-A-Glance" pages of "The Almanac", however, that these moves need to get underway IMMEDIATELY.

UPDATED 19980924

COMMENT 1998-698

1. In the currencies, traders should be VERY sensitive to another large surge to the upside.

2. Simply apply the PATTERN shown in the preceding chart, but on a larger scale.

2. VERY close stops are the order of the day, however, for this move needs to get legs IMMEDIATELY if it is to work.

UPDATED 19980924

COMMENT 1998-699

1. Even the market on page 334 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition" and page 413 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" is in this position.

2. Can you see how the PATTERN on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" has just been completed?

3. Note how the seasonal patterns have changed in this market over the last few years.

4. Such a change in tendencies can be seen on page 334 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

5. Simply compare the black arrow with the long term tendency.

6. Don't forget to look at the weekly "Inversion Cycles" on page 185 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" as the information pertains to this market.

UPDATED 19980924

COMMENT 1998-700

1. And don't overlook the short side in the markets on pages 305 and 321 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" and pages 282 and 288 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

2. The entry trading technique on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" is still ready to go in these markets.

3. What's especially interesting is that these markets did not rally strongly as stocks sold off this afternoon.

4. This is the first time these markets have not reacted strongly to weak prices this month and suggests fatigue.

UPDATED 19980924

COMMENT 1998-701

1. The chart shows hourly December S&P prices.

2. As can be seen on pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual", Elliott Waves surge in waves of 5 and correct in waves of 3.

3. Lesser known, however, are Elliott Wave impulse movements which occur in moves of 9 waves and corrections of 7 waves.

4. Another possible interpretation which uses this interpretation is shown in the chart.

5. The chart updates the features presented in recent charts of this market.

6. The up channel as originally presented is still drawn off the 980831 lows and the "Point 4" low shown in the chart as it has been all along.

7. The upper channel trendline is still drawn off the "Point 1" high.

8. An additional up trendline is also shown in the chart which has now peaked prices 5 times this month.

9. Can you see these peaks in the chart?

10. The horizontal trendline shown in the chart which halted the price rise Wednesday is the 50 percent retracement of the entire move from the mid-July high.

11. The move from the 980831 price low to the "Point 3" high required 34 trading hours (FIBONACCI # = 34).

12. The move from the "Point 3" high to the "Point 6" low required 57 trading hours (FIBONACCI # = 55).

13. The move from the "Point 6" low to the "Point 7" high required 20 trading hours (FIBONACCI # = 21).

14. The entire move required 111 hours (2 X FIBONACCI # 55 = 110, 3 X MASTER # 37 = 111).

15. Note Monday's low at "Point 6".

16. This low was made on the opening as the tapes on the President's escapade were released (NEWS).

17. The high yesterday was also made on NEWS as Greenspan's speech was discounted.

18. Have I misinterpreted my own work?

19. It's certainly possible.

20. After all, the weekly "Linear Cycle Indexes" on pages 293 and 297 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" in the S&P 500 and the NYSE clearly bottomed along with prices right at the beginning of the month.

21. More important, these projected cycle lows occurred right as the first weekly "Inversion Indexes" were listed since the very week of the all-time mid-July highs in the stock market as shown on pages 293 and 297 of the "Cycles Book".

22. OK, since this information has been so hot, let's simply turn to page 185 in "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".

23. Note the weekly "Inversion Cycle Indexes" listed under "WIC".

24. Hmmmm.

25. Isn't this interesting?

26. Now note the "WWX - HI" and "WLC - HI" listings for this market.

27. If you don't know what you're looking at, just reference the "key" which explains that these terms are telling us that the weekly window and linear cycle indexes are peaking this week.

28. Now let's look at the "Cyclic Trends" on the same page.

29. Note the "S" for this market.

30. As you can see in the "key" below the listings, "S" means sell short.

31. Hence, the monthly and weekly linear time cycles are now in ALIGNMENT to the downside.

32. Wasn't that easy?

33. Just turn the pages of the book.

UPDATED 19980927

COMMENT 1998-702

1. Don't forget to turn to page 398 in "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

2. I should have done a better job of anticipating Friday's reversal action given the "A & P Point" listings.

UPDATED 19980927

COMMENT 1998-703

In the stocks, we should note that, in such averages as the DJIA and NQZ, the PATTERN on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" is set up.

UPDATED 19980927

COMMENT 1998-704

1. The following chart shows hourly December US Treasury Bond prices.

2. The 288th hour from the 980730 low which is marked by "Point IV" in the chart occurs during the 2nd hour Monday morning (day session prices).

3. As can be seen in the chart, it would appear that an "ascending triangle" formation has formed at the "Point 5" peak.

4. You may remember a couple of other such "ascending triangle" peaks which were cited in these COMMENTS and which led to immediate and sharp declines in the stock market on 980422 and in the dollar on 980817.

5. An easy way to go back and study why these PATTERNS are so important and what they suggest will be the bond market's next move is to go to the "INDEX" at the bottom of the "Trade of the Week" page, access "ascending triangle" and then go to the COMMENT number.

6. The peak marked in the chart is 280 hours from the 980730 low (2 X FIBONACCI # 144 = 288).

5. Friday was also 56 calendar days from the same low (FIBONACCI # = 55).

6. If this move is complete, "waves" 1, 3, and 5 will have traversed 58 (FIBONACCI # = 55), 85 and 85 trading hours (FIBONACCI # = 89).

7. The two corrective "waves" will have lasted 19 (LUCAS # = 18) and 33 trading hours (FIBONACCI # = 34).

8. Obviously, in TIME, the 3rd and 5th waves are equal at Friday's high.

9. The "ascending triangle top" formation would explain why the peak has been so drawn out these last couple of weeks.

10. In 32/nds, the entire move measured 282/32nds versus 280 trading hours.

11. Doesn't get much better.

12. The five waves measured 96, 40, 136, 30 and 120 32nds.

13. 136/96 = 1.417 (SQ RT 2 = 1.414).

14. 136/120 = 1.133 (4th RT PHI = 1.129).

15. 120/96 = 1.250 and 40/30 = 1.333 (5/4ths and 4/3rds).

16. This is a great TIME and PRICE for this top to occur since the Fed is meeting Tuesday and the crowd's orgasmic about an expected interest rate cut.

17. With the German election out of the way, let's see if the world's central banks don't publicly announce aggressive, coordinated rate cuts (the implication being that monetary stimulus will NOT be conducive to higher bond prices since it implies
higher inflation).

18. Note how each of the "legs" labeled in the chart appear to be comprised of three movements.

19. Finally, note that the "IV" and "V" in the chart suggest completion of the entire move from the April 30th low.

20. The entire move from the 980430 low required 148 calendar days (FIBONACCI # = 144) and 104 trading days (FIBONACCI # 13 X FIBONACCI # 8 = 104).

21. (No, I'm not making this stuff up).

22. The entire move from the 970411 low lasted 368 trading days (FIBONACCI # = 377).

23. It measured 766 32nds (basis the spot day session futures contract).

24. 766/2 = 383 (FIBONACCI # = 377).

25. Hence, again we see that TIME and PRICE are approximately SQUARED.

26. The Ratio is approximately 2.000 : 1.000, however, instead of 1.000 : 1.000.

27. The move from the 941111 low to the 960104 high lasted 288 trading days (2 X FIBONACCI # 144 = 288).

28. 368/288 = 1.278 (SQ RT PHI = SQ RT 1.618 = 1.272).

29. The move lasted 835/32nds versus 766/32nds in this move.

30. 835/766 = 1.090 (8th RT 2 = 1.091).

31. Most important, however, remains page 305 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".

32. On a weekly basis, momentum oscillators such as RSI and slow stochastics peaked way back in January.

33. On a daily basis, RSI peaked on 980831 while slow stochastics peaked on 980910.

34. On an hourly basis, RSI and slow stochastics both peaked on 980910.

35. Both have also recorded lower highs at "Point 3" and "Point 5" shown in the chart.

36. These peaks occurred on 980921 and 980925.

37. The series of three higher price peaks with lower momentum oscillator peaks in the hourly chart, of course, form an important DIVERGENCE (see pages 171-84 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition).

38. What is CLASSIC is that the DIVERGENCE is seen in the weekly, daily and hourly Degree of Trading.

39. Even on a 15 minute bar chart, momentum oscillators peaked on 980921 and did not CONFIRM the new highs on Friday.

UPDATED 19980927

COMMENT 1998-705

Can you see that the markets on pages 385 and 397 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" and pages 320 and 326 of   "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition" appear primed for the "THRUST" entry technique presented on pages 115-6 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual"?

UPDATED 19980928

COMMENT 1998-706

1. While we're at it, let's update the December S&P futures contract.

2. The chart shows 15 minute bars through this morning.

3. The horizontal line in the chart is the .786 (.786 = 1/SQ RT PHI = 1/1.272) retracement from the late Wednesday high to the early Friday morning low.

4. It is just a tad above the 107000 price level.

5. The tendency over the last 3 weeks has been to rally early in the week, sell off Thursday on a NEWS announcement or expectation, and to then move higher on Friday.

6. The impetus for an early rally this week is the expectation of an interest rate cut.

7. In the chart, the "A of II" "leg" measured 1870 points.

8. 1870 points added to the "B of II" "leg" is 106870.

9. The amount of TIME spent declining is equal to the amount of TIME correcting the "II" "leg" at the vertical line shown in the chart.

10. This period occurs during the 2nd 15 minute period this morning, or from 08:45 to 09:00 this morning or as this is written.

11. The problem we've had the last several days is these great big down NEWS openings early in the morning.

12. Leaves too much time in the day for price to reverse.

13. Let's see if Wednesday's high of 107950 and the resistance shown in the chart are able to hold.

14. Note that this is an almost-ideal SQUARING of PRICE and TIME.

15. Given the strong up opening this morning, it makes sense to use the entry trading techniques shown on pages 236-37 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" to enter short sales.

UPDATED 19980928

COMMENT 1998-707

1. Note that the preceding two COMMENTS suggest that stocks and bonds are about to both move lower in tandem.

2. Should such occur, it will be a major change in the experience of the last several weeks.

3. Revisit page 185 in "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".

UPDATED 19980928

COMMENT 1998-708

1. Price did not follow through on Friday's large up openings in commodity markets in general.

2. Friday's highs will thus be more important than usual and, in general, will have to be broken before trend can be determined to have reasserted itself to the upside.

3. Again, see page 398 in "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

UPDATED 19980928

COMMENT 1998-709

1. DON'T OVERLOOK THAT FIRST "TRADE OF THE YEAR"!

2. See pages 372-5 and 380 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

UPDATED 19980929

COMMENT 1998-710

Let's review a few recent e-mails.

"1) In Comment 658 you mention a target for the SF of 72.95.

2) Comment 672 you confirm same target.

'Til today the SF never closed above your target.

3) Last Friday's action: Gap up, close lower.  According to your Ref. Manual, page 132/133, Friday's action can be qualified as Exhaustion Gap.

4) Monday's open was gap-down (first Midway Gap) and points to lower prices.

5) Friday's action was trading day 55 (Fibonacci)

6) 9/26 was anniversary date High in SF

All the facts point to a High in the SF (DM?)

Question: How can you negate all these facts and state in your comment 698/980924

. . . 'to be very sensitive to another large surge to the upside in the currencies'.

thank you.

EL"

1. It actually goes further than what you've stated.

2. As an example, look at the solid line on page 341 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".

3. With regard to the DM, turn to page 333.

4. Page 298 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition" is also instructive.

5. But note the lows on 980914 and 980923.

6. And the minor break lower on the 23rd which was quickly reversed.

7. Now look at the PATTERN which was formed on the 24th (the date of the COMMENT) - see pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual".

8. Given the SET UP, it made sense, to me, to consider the possibility of an acceleration in price to the upside.

9. Were such to happen, it would likely pull tangible prices along.

10. It had to happen very quickly, however, and had to virtually explode upwards - notice how quickly the outlook was abandoned in COMMENT # 708 of 980928 when the market varied from the expectation.

11. The higher opening was typical of Astro Point reversal days - classical, even, with the morning gap up.

12. It's two days later, however.

13. Let's return to the same PATTERN on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual".

14. Can you see how the PATTERN is now reversed and primed for a sale?

15. If long, it would appear to me that this PATTERN would define a stop and reversal point.

16. As a side note, the AD and CA are quite a bit higher than when the COMMENT was issued - so the currency discussion was not entirely without merit.

17. I don't understand the question regarding the closing price and 72.95 target.

18. I can't remember a chart or discussion regarding closing prices in these COMMENTS, spreads excepted.

19. With respect to the gaps, restudy the charts on page 133.

20. The last gap experienced in this market (day session prices) was from 980911 to 980914.

21. Further, with respect to this market, the most important recent gap, in my opinion, was from the 980903 high at 7180 to the 7181 low on 980914.

22. The 7178 low on 980923 which closed this gap and same day move up and away from the gap closure was, again, in my opinion, of significance and contributed to the interpretation presented.

23. If you want to see another important PATTERN in this market now, turn to pages 126-9 in "The $upertrader's Reference Manual".

UPDATED 19980929

COMMENT 1998-711

1. Every so often, we focus on a simple trendline in these COMMENTS.

2. The chart shows daily December US Treasury Bond prices.

3. Note how the up trendline was broken yesterday just before the NEWS of the Federal Reserve's lowering of the fed funds rate.

4. The story is the ability to close UP on the day and above the opening.

5. It suggests continuation of the up trend, especially given the trendline break and close above the trendline.

6. The PATTERN on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" is now primed should this trend resumption fail.

7. It should be noted that the notes held (intraday day session basis) this same up trendline the bonds broke.

UPDATED 19980929

COMMENT 1998-712

1. Where else can we use the PATTERN on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual"?

2. Let's look at the chart on pages 310, 312, and 314 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

3. Note the CONFIRMATION of the long term seasonal averages by the solid black arrows shown above these averages.

4. Can you turn to the facing page for each of these markets and see that the solid black arrows represent the 5 year seasonal trades listed throughout "The Almanac"?

5. Our last review of these markets was 3 days off the contract lows in late August.

6. These moves have since averaged over $3,000 per market per contract.

7. Page 365 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" would suggest we're just a tad early.

8. Do you understand why?

UPDATED 19980929

COMMENT 1998-713

Or how about the 3 markets in the complex represented on page 338 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition" and page 421 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".

UPDATED 19980929

COMMENT 1998-714

1. Finally, if we want to focus on gaps, the most important made today was in the market on page 361 of "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" and on page 308 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

2. This gap is important because of where price halted it's advance today.

3. A down trendline drawn off the 980319 and 980529 lows and the down channel formed off the February high of the year marked today's high.

4. The observation is that this is an opportune level at which to tighten stops.

5. If stopped out and momentum reasserts itself, the market can always be reentered.

6. Now go back to both the seasonals and cycles shown in the books in the above referenced pages.

7. Hmmmm . . .

UPDATED 19980929

COMMENT 1998-715

1. The chart shows daily December S&P prices.

2. The up and down arrows show all but one of the "A & P" turning points projected on page 398 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition" since the 980901 low.

3. COMMENT # 633 written the very day of the 980901 low discussed the likelihood that the stock market correction which began the day of this low would end on one of the "A & P" point projections.

4. As you can see in the chart, the "A & P" points did not ALIGN with all turns since the 980901 low or with the 980923 high, but they were pretty close.

5. Just another example of why it is ALWAYS important to be aware of the upcoming dates of these listings relative to the position of the stock and other markets.

UPDATED 19980929

COMMENT 1998-716

If the information on the SF and DM is correct, then why should we not also apply the PATTERN on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" to the US Dollar (buy side)?

UPDATED 19980930

COMMENT 1998-717

1. The chart which follows shows 15 minute bars of the December S&P through the first 15 minutes this morning.

2. The 3 bars in the lower right corner of the chart show this morning's trading.

3. The original projection shown in chart # 706 of 980928 is included and shows "How It Came Out".

4. As is obvious, the ideal projection just below the "C" in the chart at the point of the "cross" of the vertical and horizontal lines was quite close to the final corrective peak which occurred about an hour later.

5. The tendency of late has been to rally after large down openings.

6. If the market truly peaked a week ago today, the trading technique on pages 236-7 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" should not only be able to provide an appropriate level at which to add contracts in the stock indexes, but should also provide
appropriate exit stop and reentry points.

UPDATED 19980930

COMMENT 1998-718

1. The bond market has broken Friday's high this morning.

2. This is disappointing and dampens the classic SET UP reviewed in COMMENT # 704 of 980927.

3. It does not negate it, however.

4. The key signal was yesterday's price action as presented in COMMENT # 711.

5. This price action is the third time this key signal was provided in this market.

6. It is very instructive to go back and review how price reacted throughout the day on 980730 (the very day the current up move began), 980916 and, of course, yesterday.

7. If price is to reverse, the trading technique on pages 236-7 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" will catch it (as applied to today's price intraday price action).

UPDATED 19980930

COMMENT 1998-719

1. The chart which follows shows hourly bars for the December S&P through the close today.

2. The 2 channels, 1 up and 1 down, tell the whole story.

3. A normal trendline (the lower up trendline drawn in the chart) would appear, at first glance, to have been broken.

4. Now the "cradle" created by the two lower channel trendlines, however, and where price stopped (see page 304 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

5. Note where the decline stopped today.

6. If this decline is to stop, it must stop here.

7. If it opens higher tomorrow, however, the trading technique on pages 236-7 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" will be applicable to add another contract.