MAY COMMENTS

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Comment numbers for 990528:  383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396

UPDATED 19990528

COMMENT 1999-383

1. We always want to be aware of the turning point projections on page 406 of "The 1999 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition".

2. When we have a "cluster" of such points, it seems, from experience, that the most important market turns appear near the last day of the "cluster".

3. We use the daily projected turns on this page to ALIGN WITH the weekly projections and further reduce the time span of our expected turn in markets which are projected to turn during this period.

4. There is one more such forthcoming "cluster" in front of us (hint : focus on the major "Astro Points" and on the "Pesavento Points" and then fill in with the minor points to form the "cluster").

5. It would appear that this is one of the greatest such "clusters" since 1987.

6. That year, a "cluster" occurred on 870819-870821-870823-870824-870825.

7. "Events" occurred every single day from the 16th to the 25th.

8. 55 calendar days later, Wall Street experienced the October 19th "Black Monday" stock market crash.

9. The 25th of August marked the peak of the rally, to the day.

10. The "cluster" and "events" just reviewed are as they were listed in "The 1987 Commodity Trader's Almanac", our second "Almanac" published.


UPDATED 19990528

COMMENT 1999-384

1. The following chart updates that of COMMENT # 375 of 990526.

2. Instead of 20-34-20 = 74 periods, the first "a-b-c" was 20 periods and the second "a-b-c" was also 20 periods.

3. These two "a-b-c" movements are likely part of a larger "A-B-C" movement as was discussed yesterday.

4. In other words, the first "a-b-c" shown in the chart is an "A" up and the second "a-b-c" is a "B" down.

5. 20 periods each.

6. A reasonable expectation remains as presented yesterday.

7. Instead of 20-34-20, we now expect 20-20-34.

8. The first 20 up and second 20 down are already complete as shown in the chart.

9. The expectation is that the final 34 will unfold in a "1-2-3-4-5" sequence.

10. We've already finished 3 up (FIBONACCI # = 3) and 5 down (FIBONACCI # = 5).

11. We will know immediately tomorrow morning.

12. Since the expectation is that the market has already finished waves "1 & 2" of the expected "1-2-3-4-5" sequence, the market should embark in a 3rd wave up if the ideal scenario is to unfold.

13. The perfect scenario would see a movement to just above 1310 by 1230 CST tomorrow, a brief correction, and then a final move to a 1322-1325 high which should be made on the close.


UPDATED 19990528

COMMENT 1999-385

1. The following chart shows 30 minute bars for the DJIA.

2. It would not be surprising to see a bounce in this market from yesterday's lows.

3. If the Elliott Wave "count is correct", the 25 51 and 10 periods down in the 1st, 3rd and 5th legs.

4. 131 total periods.

5. 131/25 = 5.24 (FIBONACCI # = 5).

6. 131/10 = 13.1 (FIBONACCI # = 13).

7. 131/51 = 2.568 (SQ PHI = 2.618).

8. 51/25 = 2.040 (2.000).

9. 38.48 points down in leg 1 (3 X FIBONACCI # 13 = 39).

10. 42.64 points down in leg 3 (2 X FIBONACCI # 21 = 42).

11. 28.68 points down in leg 5 (LUCAS # = 29).

12. 69.61 total points.

13. 69.61 / 38.48 = 1.809 ([SQ PHI + 1.000]/2 = 3.618/2 = 1.809.

14. 69.61 / 42.64 = 1.637 (PHI = 1.618).

15. 69.61 / 28.68 = 2.427 (SQ RT 2 + 1.000 = 2.414).

16. 42.64 / 28.68 = 1.487 (SQ RT 2 = 1.414).

17. The 144th period occurs at the vertical line or around 13:00 hours today CST.

18. The short horizontal line is at the .618 retracement and is just below the previous "WAVE 4" of smaller degree.

19. Note how well the down channel trendlines have contained price so far.


UPDATED 19990528

COMMENT 1999-386

1. In the two previous COMMENTS, if the scenarios outlined does not quickly develop, we must be very sensitive of the possibility of a panic selloff tomorrow.

2. Such would create over-the-weekend margin calls.

3. Such would lead to a margin washout into Tuesday morning.

4. Not expected this early, but it is on the radar screen.


UPDATED 19990528

COMMENT 1999-387

1. Be very sensitive to the possibility of a reversal in the markets reviewed in COMMENT # 379 yesterday.

2. Note that the two have DIVERGED (see pages 171-84 in "The $upertrader's Reference Manual) with one making a new low yesterday and the other failing to make a new low.

3. Note that the "ALMANAC VII" trading system is primed and ready to go on the slightest hint of a buy signal in the market (not officially listed on page 372) which made the new low (see pages 369-72 of "The 1999 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half
Edition").


UPDATED 19990528

COMMENT 1999-388

1. Now look at trade #s 2 & 3 in the "ALMANAC VII" listing on page 372 of "The 1999 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition.

2. Note that this market is scheduled to shift from the June to the September contract.

3. You can see the June trade listed for this week on page 227 in the "ALMANAC VII" section.

4. It's # 2 in the listing in the right half of the section.

5. Now note, on page 235, how the trade shifts to the left half of the page and to the September contract in next week's listings.

6. It's # 3 in the listing at the top of the page.

7. You'll have to turn to page 219 to see this, but note that the most important "ANNIVERSARY DATE" of the month for the "Weighted Low" values occurs on 990530 in the prime market.

8. Now look at the values for the sister market.

9. Now check out page 288 and the same information for its companion market.


UPDATED 19990528

COMMENT 1999-389

1. Now look at page 115 of "The 1999 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".

2. Go to the "Inversion Cycles" section.

3. Look at the first listing in the "WIC" ("Weekly Inversion Cycles") information.

4. Now go to this week's information.

5. Can you see this same information listed in the "WLC - LO" section?

6. If you need to visually see this information, turn to page 311.

7. The "WLC" (Weekly Linear Time Cycle Index) is represented by the solid line in the chart.

8. Can you see how the cycles are projecting major lows around NOW!

9. Can you see how the information ALIGNS WITH (though not perfectly) the dotted line in the chart?

10. The dotted line is the "Inversion Cycle Index".

11. The projected turns signaled by the "Inversion Cycle Index" occur only when the index PEAKS.

12. Isn't this all so very easy?

13. Traders should be particularly sensitive to market reversals to the upside in this complex and should employ approaches that provide long entry with tight stops against recent lows.

14. The very short term trading system presented on pages 96-101 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" is such a "system".

15. A close above the open over the next few days will cause a "black" candlestick which should be sufficient to provide a short term entry signal.

16. Note that these same patterns apply to intraday data such as hourly charts where risk is further reduced and tighter stops provided.

17. The reader should observe that trading is simply the process of identifying a number of situations such as this one that have a chance of working out quite well if the analysis is correct but which involve very little risk to capital if wrong.


UPDATED 19990528

COMMENT 1999-390

1. Now let's turn to this week's information on page 119 "The 1999 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".

2. Again, note the 2nd and last listings in the weekly "Inversion Cycles" listing.

3. Is the market trending up or down into this expected turn?

4. If it's trending up, can you expect that the trend reversal should be from up to down and vice versa?

5. Now turn to page 327.

6. Can you see how this is all beginning to fit?


UPDATED 19990528

COMMENT 1999-391

1. Look at the 4th listing on page 119 of this week's listings in "The 1999 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".

2. We're again focusing on the "WIC" information in the "Inversion Cycles Index" section.

3. Can you see how this information ALIGNS WITH the discussion yesterday in COMMENT # 382?


UPDATED 19990528

COMMENT 1999-392

1. Now look at the 1st listing on page 119 of this week's listings in "The 1999 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".

2. We're again focusing on the "WIC" information in the "Inversion Cycles Index" section.

3. Can you see how this information ALIGNS WITH the discussion yesterday in COMMENT # 370 of 990526?


UPDATED 19990528

COMMENT 1999-393

1. Last week, we listed a weekly "Inversion Cycle Index" for the market on page 363 of "The 1999 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".

2. Study the information in the chart at the bottom of the page.

3. We want to focus on the "Linear Time Cycle Index".

4. This is the solid line.

5. Should we be expecting higher or lower prices throughout the summer?

6. See how the NEWS is irrelevant?


UPDATED 19990528

COMMENT 1999-394

1. See the market on page 302 of "The 1999 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles"?

2. Now turn to this week's info on page 228.

3. See the "FND LAUNCHINGS" listing for this market?

4. See the 528 date (May 28th)?

5. Is TODAY May 28th?

6. Should we be expecting a reversal in this market from down to up?

7. For the "LAUNCHING" to work, the "SLAMMER" should have first worked?

8. Has it in this market?


UPDATED 19990528

COMMENT 1999-395

Note how much more aggressive we are RIGHT NOW because of the information on page 406 of "The 1999 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition".


UPDATED 19990528

COMMENT 1999-396

1. There's been no word to date on TAUCHER V CFTC.

2. Also, I've fallen behind on answering client e-mails and will attempt to use the weekends for such answers in the future(s).