APRIL COMMENTS
Scroll down to view each Comment one by one or click on the
individual Comment number you wish to view.
Comment numbers for 20060405 112 113
GENERAL COMMENTS
"It would indeed be ironic if,
in the name of national defense,
we would sanction the subversion of one of the liberties . . .
which makes the defense of the Nation worthwhile."
- United States v. Robel, 389 US 258, 264 (1967)
>> >> << <<
1. We always want to be aware of those projected turning points on page 368 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition".
5. Click here to access our new charting service!
CURRENT COMMENTS
I contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity UPDATED 20060405
COMMENT #112
CHART #224
1. A couple of days ago, the following CHART was suggesting higher prices:
2. The green triangle formed by the two trendlines was provided as a possibility, but the interpretation was not favored.
3. It was noted that a break of the thin pink horizontal trendline drawn to the right from the March low would negated the favored interpretation, but not the green triangle interpretation.
4. Today's CHART #224 of daily prices for the continuous spot futures prices updates.
5. Although the March low has not been broken in this contract, it has in the cash index.
6. The black / blue Wave 1-2-1-2 assumption of the earlier CHART has thus been removed from today's updated CHART because the setup has been negated (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
7. We can see by the yellow highlighting that today will be the 18th trading and 26th calendar day of the decline from the March high.
8. This places the decline to the January low of 47 trading days and decline to today's low in PHI proportions (LUCAS #s=47 & 18).
9. Above price, we can see that the two up legs to the November and March highs are also in approximate PHI proportions at 1.625 (PHI=1.618).
10. The decline from the March high to today's expected low is marked in the CHART by the three red boxes.
11. The larger perspective is noted by the blue "[A]" high last summer and blue "[B]" low in the lower right corner.
12. We can see that the total of these two movements is 189 + 271 = 460 calendar days (2 X FIBONACCI #234 = 468).
13. From the late 2004 low, the blue [A] advance is, under this interpretation, believed to be the blue A-B-C advance shown.
14. From the blue [A] high, the market then is believed to have unfolded in the green a-b-c-d-e triangle shown in both of the two above CHARTS.
15. We can see that the green d and green e portions of the triangle lasted 70 calendar days versus 145 in the green b and green c portions.
16. These segments are marked in the CHART by the red lines below price (145/70 = 2.071 [PHI X SQ PHI = 2.058] and FIBONACCI # = 144).
17. We can see that the blue [B] wave lasted 271 calendar days or ¾ solar year.
18. If all this is correct, the green Wave e low can bottom anywhere from yesterday's low to the pink horizontal (thicker) trendline drawn to the right of the January low and still maintain the Elliott Wave bullish interpretation, though not the green triangle.
19. No doubt that chartists are very aware of the implications of that green up trendline and that many public sell stop orders have been placed just below it.
20. Note that the three red caps and head-and-shoulders chart formation remains (though not favored).
UPDATED 20060405
COMMENT #113
CHART #S 224 & 225
1. The CHART #225 shows daily prices for the June futures contract.
2. The black text in the center of the page above price shows that the leg shown has lasted 18 trading days and 26 calendar days (LUCAS #=18 & 2 X FIBONACCI #13=26).
3. We can see that the advance appears to be a completed 5 wave impulsive Elliott Wave advance (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
4. The 5 waves are marked by the blue numbers.
5. We can see how the blue 3rd and 5th uplegs have further broken down into the 5 black impulsive waves.
6. The green numbers tell us that the 3rd and 5th blue waves are about equal.
7. All this suggests that, from an Elliott Wave point of view, the movement is complete.
8. We can see how price has carried up into the red and blue boxes.
9. When we inspect the price action in this market over the last week or so, we can see that the market is setup for entry sell signal today via the trading technique presented on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual".
10. A few days ago, the following market was discussed.
11. What was reviewed was the possibility that the market was forming the blue Wave II high shown in the CHART.
12. The following CHART updates the June futures contract with the new red and blue boxes from the April-September edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".
13. This corrective advance from the 308 low is actually better balanced than is the above CHART.
14. Here we see a 7-2-7=16 trading day advance.
15. This 3 legged affair suggests an A-B-C movement.
16. Here we see A=7=C.
17. The blue Wave A advance lasted 75 points and the blue Wave C 62.
18. The relationship between the two is 1.210 (SQ RT PHI = 1.272).
19. The total advance from the March low shown in the CHART to the blue Wave C high is 87 points (FIBONACCI #=89).
20. This measurement versus the blue Wave C advance is 1.403 (SQ RT 2 = 1.414).
21. The total decline from the January high was 140.5 points (FIBONACCI # = 144).
22. The ratio of the decline to the advance to the blue Wave C high is thus 140.5 / 87 = 1.615 (PHI = 1.618).
23. The decline lasted 58 calendar days (2 X LUCAS #29 = 58) while the advance has lasted 26 calendar days (2 X FIBONACCI #13 = 26).
24. 58 / 26 = 2.231 (SQ RT 5 = 2.236).
25. In trading days, 41 / 16 = 2.563 (SQ PHI = 2.618).
26. 57 total trading days in the decline & advance (FIBONACCI # = 55).
27. But whereas we saw the trading technique presented on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" set up for short side entry today in the #225 CHART, close examination of the #226 CHART shows that this same set up is not present.
28. The reasons why are shown by the black text numbered 1 through 4.
29. What this means is that some other approach has to be used other than the 205-9 trading technique for the #226 market.
30. The technique presented on pages 205-9 is not exclusive.
31. It is used repeatedly because that happens to be the pattern recognition trading technique that's in the book.
32. There are many ways to offset such situations where the technique does not provide a clear entry signal and corresponding low risk stop point and where the market information is suggesting a reversal / acceleration.
33. For example, one can use another trading technique, or can use a different Degree of Trading.
34. For example, a hourly chart instead of a daily.
35. The point is that both of these markets appear to have completed advances from the same March low.
36. The #225 market appears to be clearly impulsive, while the #226 market appears to be clearly corrective.
37. And, yet, these markets are from the same complex and, one would expect, are clearly related with an expected high degree of correlation.
2. We always want to be aware of those "Inversion Cycle Indexes" in the weekly pages of the April through September edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" which is available in an easy-to-use electronic format. A sample of the format for the charting file may be seen in the NOTICE posted here. Ordering information here!
3. The initial issue of the free "Trading on the Edge" E-Zine was released 20001021. Archived copies are available here. Subscription information here.
4. NOTICE of refund and cancellation polices may be accessed here.
is like a man standing in a bucket
and trying to lift himself up by the handle.
~~Winston Churchill
