APRIL COMMENTS
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Comment numbers for 20060427 141 142 143 144
GENERAL COMMENTS
"It would indeed be ironic if,
in the name of national defense,
we would sanction the subversion of one of the liberties . . .
which makes the defense of the Nation worthwhile."
- United States v. Robel, 389 US 258, 264 (1967)
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1. We always want to be aware of those projected turning points on page 368 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition".
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CURRENT COMMENTS
I would rather live my life as if there is a God, UPDATED 20060427
COMMENT #141
CHART #s 280 & 281
1. CHART #280 shows monthly prices for the continuous spot futures contract.
2. The interpretation shown is the alternative.
3. From a monthly perspective, this interpretation is actually the favored one at this time.
4. We can see how the initial decline to the black Wave A low lasted 61 months.
5. From this low, the market then rallied 34 months to the black Wave a of B high.
6. In the yearly CHART, there was quite a question as to whether this advance was a two or three year advance.
7. As was mentioned at the time, the advance was seen as only a two year advance on the yearly CHART.
8. On the monthly, however, we can see that the 34 month advance is much closer to 3 years than it is to two.
9. Hence, the labeling on the yearly CHART, though not exactly 3 years, is certainly acceptable as interpreted because of its closeness to an exact 3 year movement.
10. The decline that followed then lasted, under this interpretation, 160 months to the low shown.
11. Note that this low is the 2001 low shown in the yearly CHART and which also marked the 8 year cycle low marked in recent CHARTS by the blue vertical lines.
12. There's a big problem with labeling this market in that fashion, and that problem is the sharp two month advance up from the 1999 low.
13. Nevertheless, the values presented do favor this interpretation.
14. From the 2001 low, the market has advanced another 60 months to this month's high.
15. There are numerous PHI-related relationships marked in the CHART by the black text.
16. One of the more interesting is that the black Wave A decline and black Wave c of B advance are about equal at 60 and 61 months (100 X 1/PHI=61.8).
17. Both are also related to the black Wave b of B decline of 160 months (100 X PHI=161.8) as 160/60=8/3=SQ PHI.
18. They are highlighted in the CHART by the green background.
19. Wave B of 254 months thus relates to both the Wave c of B advance and Wave A decline by approximately CUBE PHI (4.236).
20. These values are highlighted by the yellow background.
21. The market thus seems to be at a natural pausing, if not completion, point.
22. CHART #281 shows prices for the cash index cited.
23. This advance lasted 144 months (FIBONACCI #=144).
24. Although the exact beginning of the advance is not shown in the data accessed for this market, the best starting point is the one shown in the lower left corner.
25. From this low, the market then rallied 16 months and then declined 8 so that W1/W2=2.000.
26. How the rally unfolded is shown by the black text.
27. There are several interesting relationships shown including the rally to the 1974 high of 144.50 points (FIBONACCI #=144).
28. We can add this 144 month length to the 61 month Wave A decline and 254 Wave B advance and obtain 459 months total with 398 up and 61 down in the movement which yields a ratio of 6.525:1 (4th POWER of PHI=6.854) this month.
UPDATED 20060427
COMMENT #142
CHART #282
1. The CHART #282 continues hourly prices for the July contract and updates that of the last few days.
2. The market has continued to hold the green channel as can be seen.
3. The lower green line has been adjusted to the rate of advance of the two highs shown in the CHART through which the upper green up channel trendline is drawn.
4. The old up green trendline is the thin one at the bottom of the channel.
5. We can see how the 6 hour periodicity is continuing in this market.
6. The three arcs are at .500, 1.000 and 1.272 (SQ RT PHI) with 1.000 being the green arc.
UPDATED 20060427
COMMENT #143
CHART #s 283-284
1. CHART #s 283 & 284 show hourly prices for the July contract.
2. The CHARTs continue the discussion of a few days ago as presented here:
3. We can see that both CHARTs are suggesting that the market is in weak position so long as the horizontal pink line shown in the #284 CHART of day session prices is not breached (in other words, that price does not trade above this price level.
4. We can see that the equivalent price level is higher in the #283 CHART.
5. Because of the 5 wave impulsive sequence to the downside, the assumption is that the market is now in position to begin the 3rd of a 3rd down.
6. The #284 CHART shows that this market, in the day session contract, at least, appears to be vibrating to the 1.414 (SQ RT 2) rate.
7. The point is that risk is as teensy as can be obtained in this market and the reward : risk ratio huge.
8. Both the day session and overnight session contracts are suggesting the same outcome.
UPDATED 20060427
COMMENT #144
CHART #285
1. CHART #285 shows daily prices for the overnight contract.
2. The market just did take out the high of earlier in the month in the contract shown.
3. However, no other contract has confirmed the breakout and the breakout appears as a false flag operation.
4. The belief is that this market has set the blue Wave 1-2 sequence shown in the true markets of this complex (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
5. There are many interesting relationships in the CHART, among which is the inability of such momentum oscillators as RSI and Slow Stochastics to confirm the overnight breakout to new highs shown in the CHART (see the short red sloping trendlines above price and in the bottom box along with pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
6. There is an interesting inflection of the up/down numbers in the trading day totals shown in the black text in the upper left corner of the CHART versus the 25 down and 28 up number of trading days shown in the movement over the last few months, 53 total (FIBONACCI #=55).
7. Note that, from the blue Wave 1 low of last week, the market has seen a 2-1-2=5 trading day correction versus the initial downthrust (FIBONACCI #=5).
8. (The overnight intraday high has thus occurred on the 28+5=33rd trading day of the advance (FIBONACCI #=34) and 84th calendar day (36 down - 48 up [both divisible by 12 as is 84 total yielding PHI proportions in that 84/12=7, 48/12=4 and 36/12=3 {LUCAS #s=3, 4 & 7}]).
9. The relevance of LUCAS #s is also seen in price as the 3rd and 5th up legs are about equal at 47 points each.
10. The total advance of 104.8 points versus that of W3 is thus equal to 2.239 (SQ RT 5=2.236).
11. We can see that, in the other contracts (which haven't experienced the false flag breakout to new highs) that this market is set up for short side entry today via the trading technique presented on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
2. We always want to be aware of those "Inversion Cycle Indexes" in the weekly pages of the April through September edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" which is available in an easy-to-use electronic format. A sample of the format for the charting file may be seen in the NOTICE posted here. Ordering information here!
3. The initial issue of the free "Trading on the Edge" E-Zine was released 20001021. Archived copies are available here. Subscription information here.
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and die to find out there isn't,
than live my life as if there isn't,
and die to find out there is.
