"Our forefathers made one mistake.
What they should have fought for was
representation without taxation."

--Fletcher Knebel, historian

UPDATED 20060501

COMMENT #145

CHART #s 286-288

1. A few weeks ago, we were expecting this market to end its decline and to complete the A-B-C-X-A-B-C movement shown.

2. At the bottom of the CHART, we could see how the net commercial position was making new highs for the last year or so as shown by the red horizontal dashed line.

3. We can see how price was moving into the green and blue boxes in the lower right corner.

4. The numbers in the two red boxes alerted us that the two legs shown were about equal suggesting the Elliott Wave count marked in the CHART by the blue and black numbers (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

5. The black and red arrows showed that the downlegs shown were related via the SQ RT PHI (1.272).

6. A week later, however, the market had made a new low for the move.

7. However, the move suggested the extension shown.

8. The blue and green boxes still seemed to be controlling.

9. Another week later and another new low was being made.

10. In today's CHART of daily prices for the continuous spot futures price, we can see that one more low was seen this past week.

11. Each of these lows was quickly reversed.

12. But the reversals proved fleeting.

13. The orange lines shown that the two segments marked by the two orange vertical brackets shown in the CHART are about equal and project right to last week's low.

14. The black arrows connecting the two A-B-C declines show that the two declines are related by PHI X SQ RT PHI = 2.058 (see the blue box).

15. This second A-B-C decline has lasted 161 trading (100 X PHI=161.8) and 238 calendar days (FIBONACCI #=233).

16. The two red declining lines mark the down channel shown and show how last week's low occurred right at the bottom of the lower down channel trendline.

17. Again, the lows remain in the green and blue boxes (though at the end thereof).

18. The blue Wave 5 decline has had to be reassessed.

19. For the market to bottom now, the interpretation shown is the best fit (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

20. Most of the information from prior CHARTS remains, though the measures taken have changed a bit as have the ratios.

21. If the low shown holds, then the blue W5/blue W1=1.654 (PHI=1.618).

22. The total decline will have been 296 ticks (3.000 X 100=300) so that Total/blue W3=1.686 (PHI=1.618) and Total/blue W5=1.721 (SQ RT 3=1.732).

23. We can see how such momentum oscillators as RSI and Slow Stochastics are diverging with price of late (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

24. The real story is shown in the bottom box, however.

25. Here we see the net commercial position having increased again taking it well above the level of a couple of weeks ago when it was already quite positive.

26. The black line shows who's been doing the selling (that being large speculators or hedge funds).

27. The buying by commercials and selling by large speculators has taken the spread between the two to record levels.

28. This remains a very bullish development for this market.

29. In CHART #145, we take a look at a 15 minute bar CHART of overnight prices.

30. Here we see the 3 trading day decline from the 424 high marked as the black Wave 4 high in the #286 CHART of daily prices.

31. What we're looking for is a 5 wave impulsive decline to complete the black Wave 5 decline, the blue Wave 5 decline, and the second A-B-C sequence and decline.

32. The blue numbers suggest that the expected move is present and that price has completed the downmove.

33. From the low, the red numbers show that the market unfolded in the 5 wave impulsive pattern and advance shown.

34. This advance was followed by the red A-B-C sequence shown.

35. The two are thus consistent with an important change in trend from down to up.

36. A couple of weeks ago, the sister market was in similar position as shown in the next CHART of daily continuous spot futures prices.

37. Today's CHART #288 updates.

38. The major feature is the sharp increase of over 150,000 contracts this last week.

39. We can see how price is still within the colored boxes shown in the lower right corner.

40. As was reviewed previously, we can see how the LTC TREND INDEX is changing from red (down) to green (up).

41. When we turn to the back of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition" and look up the long term seasonal tendencies for these two markets, we can see that the long terms seasonal tendencies are switching from down to up.

42. The seasonal tendencies are thus in alignment with the cyclical information suggesting that an important low has been set in these two markets.

UPDATED 20060501

COMMENT #146

CHART #s 289-291

1. CHART #289 shows monthly prices.

2. This month sees equality shown at the top of the CHART by the red lines occur at the 76th month from the high in the upper left corner (LUCAS #=76).

3. From the low shown, the market appears to have unfolded in the a-b-c-X-a-b-c movement through Friday's high.

4. The movement to the early 2004 high lasted 16 months followed by an 8 month correction to the blue Wave X low shown.

5. 16/8=2.000.

6. The second a-b-c advance has lasted 5-7-7=19 months this month with c=7=b.

7. The red up sloping trendlines show how price is approaching the upper up channel trendline.

8. CHART #290 shows when the periodicity occurs from a weekly perspective.

9. What is labeled as the blue X wave low in the monthly CHART above was presented as follows a couple of years or so ago.

10. CHART #291 shows daily prices for the cash index.

11. The green boxes show that the two uplegs are close to being equal as price nears the red upper up channel trendline.

12. The 9 trading day advance shown to last Friday's high has risen 378.5 points (FIBONACCI #=377).

13. The entire blue a-b-c advance shown has lasted 380 trading days (FIBONACCI #=377) with 91 in the blue Wave a upleg (FIBONACCI #=89).

14. In the very upper right corner, we can see that the entire advance from the blue X wave in the lower left corner has risen 1,709.20 points.

15. When this second blue a-b-c advance is compared with the first, the ratio is 2.081 (PHI X SQ RT PHI=2.058).

16. CHART #292 shows hourly prices through this morning.

17. The low shown in the CHART is the low of two weeks ago on 417.

18. In other words, on the assumed movement, it is the black Wave 4 low of the blue Wave C advance (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

19. The ideal would be to see an Elliott Wave pattern suggesting completion of the advance of the last couple of weeks.

20. Such a clear pattern does not seem to be evident.

21. What is clear, however, is the failure of such momentum oscillators to confirm the new high this morning, thereby forming an important price/momentum oscillator divergence (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

22. There are two spike advance shown in the CHART, both of which occurred on fundamental announcements by the new Fed Chairman many are referring to as Whirly Ben because of the perception of passing out $100 bills from helicopters.

23. But each surge of enthusiasm has taken out stops and then petered out.

24. It is possible that the market is in some sort of an ascending diagonal triangle topping formation, but as of this morning, it is not clear that such is the case.