When All Life Is Seen As Divine,
We All Grow Wings!

--Anon

UPDATED 20060502

COMMENT #147

CHART #s 293-297

1. Let's take a look at daily day session prices for the markets shown in CHART #293.

2. In the upper left corner of the CHART, we can see that stops were taken out yesterday below the horizontal red line shown.

3. But the market has recently been reviewed as being in strong position as discussed, for example, here:

4. We can see that the other markets shown in the #293 CHART have not breached the equivalent horizontal red line shown thereby forming price / intermarket divergences in the complex (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

5. The breach in the upper left corner of the #293 CHART is thus believed to be a "false flag" operation.

6. Let's look a little further, however, by inspecting the weakest markets shown in the #293 CHART.

7. The #294 CHART shows weekly prices.

8. Back in 2000, we can see how little of a net long commercial position was required to trigger the ensuing rally over the next three years as marked in the CHART by the green circle in the bottom box.

9. The three vertical red arrows show the price peaks that occurred at and shortly after the run ended.

10. We can see how the red line moved below the horizontal dotted grey line at, or near, the three peaks shown.

11. On the other hand, of late, the net long position was coincident with the vertical green arrows and sharp rise in the red line representing the red net commercial line shown.

12. In the lower right corner of the CHART, the black vertical arrow shows the week that the rise shown equates the ensuing decline in the number of weeks of each move.

13. The #295 CHART shows daily prices for the continuous spot futures contract.

14. We can see how price has come down into the blue WIC (Weekly Inversion Cycle Index) projected turn shown in the lower right corner of the CHART.

15. CHART #296 shows weekly prices.

16. This market is similar to that of the prior market, but the commercial position does not align with that suggested in the other markets in the complex.

17. This would normally be a concern were it not for the failure of the commitment of trader's information to be predictive in this market.

18. The #297 CHART shows daily prices for the continuous spot futures price.

19. Here the conclusion is similar.

20. What is of value in the CHART is the failure of such momentum oscillators as RSI and Slow Stochastics to confirm the recent new low, thereby forming an important price/momentum oscillator divergence (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

21. The green down trendline shown has become of importance in this market.

22. The trading technique presented on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" can be seen to be set up for long side entry via the trading technique presented.

23. The low shown in the CHART coincides with the information on page 368 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition".

UPDATED 20060502

COMMENT #148

CHART # s 298-300

1. A few days ago, we looked at the initial decline here:

2. A day or two later, the market appeared to be in very bearish position, so long as the pink horizontal trendline was not broken as was seen here in the following two CHARTS of day and overnight session prices:

3. Let's take a look at this market from a longer term perspective.

4. CHART #298 shows monthly prices for the continuous spot futures price.

5. At the top of the CHART, we can see that the decline and subsequent advance to last month's high are about equal.

6. But the low did not occur in 1993, as the CHART shows, but in 1991 as marked in the CHART by the green box below price which is immediately below.

7. The decline/advance/decline from the high shown in the upper left corner to the low shown occurred over 29-58-46 months (LUCAS #s=29 & 47 and 2 X 29=58).

8. We thus know that this decline unfolded in PHI proportions with respect to time.

9. From the 1991 low, the market saw an 84-45-53 month (to last month's high) advance.

10. Again, we can see that this advance has unfolded in PHI proportions.

11. If we treat the decline and advance as each an A-B-C 3 legged affair, we can see that C/A=1.586 ~ 1.584=A/C (decline versus advance).

12. These are rather remarkable time relationships.

13. They should be considered as representing a much more important vibration underlying relationships of several markets discussed over the last few weeks.

14. The red horizontal line shows that, after all the hullabaloo, price has still not taken out the high of 23 years ago.

15. Since the low occurred in 1991, however, instead of the 1993 ideal, we have to adjust to the 133 and 182 month reality of what has actually occurred in the CHART.

16. Here we see the advance/decline = 1.368 (1.000+SQ[1/PHI]=1.382).

17. Hence, even with a 1991 low instead of a 1993 ideal low, the market is still PHI-related at 1.382 instead of 1.000.

18. An alternative is shown at the bottom.

19. This alternative sees a 29 month decline and 286 month rally (LUCAS #=29 and 2 X FIBONACCI #144=288).

20. Let's start at the black Wave B at the bottom of the CHART.

21. If the movement is as shown with the 1991 low, the movement occurred over 11-46-84=141 months (FIBONACCI #=144) with 95 up and 46 down months =2.065 (PHI X SQ RT PHI=2.058).

22. Since the black A & C downlegs lasted 39 & 45 months, the total from the 1983 high to the 2001 low was 39+141+45=225 months total with 141 up and 84 down=1.679 (PHI=1.618).

23. Total / up = 1.596 (PHI=1.618).

24. Total / down = 2.679 (SQ PHI=2.618).

25. This black A-B-C sequence completed the blue Wave b low in 2001 under this interpretation and, again, can be seen to be PHI-related with respect to time.

26. Now let's look at the blue Wave B advance to last month's high which is comprised of the blue a-b-c legs up-down-and-up.

27. 8-225-53=286 total as previously noted.

28. 53/8=6.625 (PWR 4 of PHI=6.854).

29. 225/53=4.245 (PWR 3 of PHI=4.236).

30. 225/61=3.689 (1.000+SQ PHI=2.618).

31. 286/29 (blue Wave A decline)=9.862 (FIB #987/100=9.870).

32. (29+225 down) / (8+53 up)=4.163 (PWR 3 of PHI=4.236).

33. We can thus see unique PHI proportions from three different perspectives at a time when the net commercial short position, shown in the bottom box, is in very negative position.

34. The #299 CHART also shows monthly prices but switches from the continuous spot futures price to the cash price.

35. The study is also logarithmic.

36. At the very bottom, the red horizontal line shows that cash prices bottomed in 1993 versus 1991.

37. This brings the equality of the decline and advance shown in the above CHART into better focus with each equal to 13 years (FIBONACCI #=13).

38. Several relationships are discussed at the bottom of the CHART in the black text.

39. The difference is that the relationships in one instance include the 24 month period from the 1991 in the prior CHART of continuous spot futures prices while others do not include this period as is the experience in the CHART of cash prices.

40. The initial advance of or 60 months covered 376.5 points in the cash index (FIBONACCI #=377).

41. The second advance of 53 months (FIBONACCI #=55) to last month's high covered 1012.0 points (FIBONACCI #=987).

42. The relationship between these two price advances is shown in the CHART by the green arrows and is 2.688 (SQ PHI=2.618).

43. The blue lines show a 4 X multiple of the price low shown in the CHART.

44. The black line just above shows a 2 X multiple of the 1998 high.

45. If the red ascending dashed and thin trendlines seem to diverge, its because they do which is the nature of a log chart.

46. What is of importance is that the upper thin ascending red trendline intersects last month's high right at the high.

47. The ascending thick red trendline is actually of greater importance, however, even though both the thick and thin trendlines arrive at the same place - last month's high.

48. CHART #300 shows daily prices.

49. We can see how the high occurred on time in the midst of the blue WIC (Weekly Inversion Cycle Index) projected turn shown.

50. From the high, price declined 3 trading days and has corrected to yesterday's high in another 5, 8 total (FIBONACCI #s=3, 5 & 8).

51. Today, the movement will show 5-8=13 calendar days (FIBONACCI #s=5, 8 & 13).

52. We can see how price is right at the .786 retracement level as shown by the dotted red horizontal line in the CHART (see pages 185-7 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

53. When we turn to pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual", we see this market set up for short side entry today (given a bit of a fudge or two).

54. The expectation is that the decline is a Wave 1 decline and the counter-trend correction a Wave 2 advance that has either already been set or is about to be set (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

UPDATED 20060502

COMMENT #149

CHART #301-302

1. CHART #301 shows daily prices for the day session contract for both markets.

2. The sloping red lines show that the market on the left is not confirming the one on the right, thereby forming an intermarket divergence that often occurs in this complex at important turns (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

3. CHART #302 updates hourly prices for the July day session contract.

4. The various relationships shown are pretty self-explanatory and, if correct, suggest that an important high is being set this morning.

5. The alternative shown at the bottom is actually the favored interpretation at the moment.

6. If correct, it suggest that a blue Wave 2 high is about to be set.

7. The point is that there is again very little risk to short positions in this market and little will be required to negate the setup shown.