MAY COMMENTS
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Comment numbers for 20060509 157 158 159
GENERAL COMMENTS
"It would indeed be ironic if,
in the name of national defense,
we would sanction the subversion of one of the liberties . . .
which makes the defense of the Nation worthwhile."
- United States v. Robel, 389 US 258, 264 (1967)
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1. We always want to be aware of those projected turning points on page 368 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition".
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CURRENT COMMENTS
He who kneels before God can stand before anyone.
UPDATED 20060509
COMMENT #157
CHART #327
(Post-close)
1. CHART #327 shows daily prices for the continuous spot futures contracts shown.
2. We can see how the following two markets are set up for long side entry today via the trading technique presented on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual".
3. At the same time, the green down sloping trendlines shown in the CHART have also gained importance today.
4. Long side entry is consistent with recent discussion.
5. What we want is for the market to force us into the position by acting in the expected manner.
6. The market cannot go up without first breaking through the two buy stop points cited.
UPDATED 20060509
COMMENT #158
CHART #323
(Post-close)
1. The #323 CHART updates hourly prices for the July contract through Monday's close.
UPDATED 20060509
COMMENT #159
CHART #s 324-6
(Post-close)
1. The following CHART #289 of monthly prices was presented earlier this month.
2. The pristine relationships shown in the #289 CHART, which include the two numbers in the green boxes, have been violated.
3. Today's CHART #324 updates through today (Tuesday 509).
4. We can see that the time relationships have not changed.
5. The three green numbers in the upper right corner measure the blue Wave c advance of the 2nd a-b-c advance, the 2nd a-b-c and the entire advance of the last 4 years or so.
6. The ideal outcome from a price perspective is shown in the upper left corner of the CHART.
7. Note that this ideal price is above the red dashed horizontal line.
8. At this price level, there are numerous unique relationships identified in the black and blue boxes in the lower left corner.
9. The black box pertains to the 2nd a-b-c advance.
10. The blue box pertains to the total 4 year advance versus the 1st and 2nd a-b-c movements.
11. A weekly CHART was also presented at the beginning of the month that targeted the current week.
12. Today's CHART #325 shows weekly prices and updates.
13. We can see that the decline to the low lasted 143 weeks (FIBONACCI #=144) followed by a 71 week rally (1/2 FIBONACCI #=72).
14. After the 71 week rally, a 36 week decline ensued (1/4 FIBONACCI #144=36 and ½ 72=36).
15. From the blue Wave X low, the market has seen a 19-31-30=80 week movement through the current week's action.
16. The red lines below price show that this movement leaves the market at tad above the red upper up channel trendline shown.
17. The blue Wave a advance and blue Wave b decline total 19+31=50 weeks with the blue Wave c advance totaling 30.
18. 80 total.
19. Total/(a+b)=PHI.
20. Total/c=SQ PHI.
21. (a+b)/c=PHI.
22. The entire advance from the low shown has lasted 187 weeks through this week.
23. The blue lines show how this advance is comprised of a 71 and 116 week segment.
24. Here we see 116/71=1.634 (PHI=1.618).
25. 187/116=1.612 (PHI=1.618).
26. 187/71=2.634 (SQ PHI=2.618).
27. Up/down=151/36=4.194 (CUBE PHI=4.236).
28. 2nd a-b-c / blue X=80/36=2.222 (SQ RT 5=2.236).
29. 2nd a-b-c / blue Wave a=3.210 (2 X PHI=3.236).
30. The ideal price target is shown by the black horizontal line that points to the right.
31. We can see that the decline/advance shown has taken 31-30=61 weeks total so that the blue Wave b decline and blue Wave c advance are about equal as shown in the CHART by the black boxes.
32. The numbers in the black boxes will be equal, of course, next week at 31 weeks.
33. The reason the above is of importance, of course, is because of the red lines above prices which divide the down/up move shown into two equal sections.
34. Here we see a decline to the vertical red line of 165 weeks (FIBONACCI #s 3 X 55=165) followed by a rise of equal amount to this week's high.
35. 330 total (FIBONACCI #s 2 X 3 X 55=330).
36. The information for this week/next fits quite well with the cycle information for this market which is presented in the daily CHART #326 below which updates the following two CHARTS.
37. In the first, we can see how price peaked at the blue and red boxes shown.
38. This movement is now believed to have completed a Wave 3 advance from the low shown in the lower left corner of the CHART (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
39. From the high, the market movement down to the blue WIC box (Weekly Inversion Cycle Index projected turn) at the end of March and then up into the red WLC (Weekly Linear Time Cycle Index) projected high marked above price in early April.
40. Price has since rallied up from the green boxes to today's high which is shown in today's CHART #326 of daily prices for the cash index.
41. We can see how price has moved up into the blue and red WIC and WLC boxes.
42. These boxes align with the information from the weekly CHART suggesting a high this week (or next).
2. We always want to be aware of those "Inversion Cycle Indexes" in the weekly pages of the April through September edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" which is available in an easy-to-use electronic format. A sample of the format for the charting file may be seen in the NOTICE posted here. Ordering information here!
3. The initial issue of the free "Trading on the Edge" E-Zine was released 20001021. Archived copies are available here. Subscription information here.
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