MAY COMMENTS
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Comment numbers for 20060518 170 171 172 173
GENERAL COMMENTS
"It would indeed be ironic if,
in the name of national defense,
we would sanction the subversion of one of the liberties . . .
which makes the defense of the Nation worthwhile."
- United States v. Robel, 389 US 258, 264 (1967)
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1. We always want to be aware of those projected turning points on page 368 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition".
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CURRENT COMMENTS
Each of us has a natural right to defend his person, UPDATED 20060518
COMMENT #170
CHART #351
1. CHART #351 updates 15 minute bars for the July contract.
2. We can see how the market is at the green lower channel up trendline again.
3. It would be bullish for this market to break the thin green down trendline and hold above the blue horizontal box shown in the CHART.
UPDATED 20060518
COMMENT #171
CHART #352
1. CHART #352 shows hourly prices for the overnight June futures contract.
2. From the blue Wave 5 low, the market rallied in a 13-20-13=46 hour advance back up to the upper down green channel trendline shown in the CHART (FIBONACCI #s=13 & 21).
3. We can see that the two uplegs of 13 hours each were about equal at 27 and 24 ticks.
4. At the bottom of the CHART, we see, just below the horizontal black line, the "Possible" alternative.
5. This alternative has been twice discussed previously and remains a possibility in this market.
6. If it is to become reality, the market would make a minor new low.
7. The black horizontal arrow pointing to the right shows the price level at which such the black a and c legs would be equal should the new low occur.
8. This scenario is not favored.
9. The red A-B-C treats the decline shown as a completed movement of 6-4-4=14 hours.
10. If the actual number of hours are used instead of the 24 hour clock, the movement is seen, from the black Wave 4 high shown in the upper left corner, to have unfolded in a 53-42-14 hour sequence.
11. In other words, two segments of 53 and 56 hours (FIBONACCI #=55).
12. The price action shown has increased the importance of both the upper and lower green down channel trendlines.
13. If a new low is made, the lower line becomes important again.
14. If not, a break of the upper down green channel trendline should serve as confirmation that the market has, in fact, bottomed and that the trend has turned up.
UPDATED 20060518
COMMENT #172
CHART #s 353-355
1. Recently, we've been discussing the importance of focusing on a key market in a complex.
2. Late last year, the following market appeared in position to set an important high.
3. But such momentum oscillators as RSI and Slow Stochastics, as marked in the CHART by the green up sloping trendline in the bottom box, were suggesting that the market had not exhausted its upside energy.
4. The day session contract provided an important clue here:
5. The up gap was believed to be a signal that the market was in the process of moving higher, so long as the gap held.
6. A couple of weeks or so later, the market had tested the gap and was thrusting higher.
7. It was stated at the time that this was the key market for the rest of the complex and that the rest of the complex was not likely to peak until this key market had run out of gas.
8. A couple of analog years were shown at the time of how this market has reacted in the past when it has broken early year highs.
9. Today's CHART #353 shows weekly prices for the cash index.
10. We can see that the rally shown has lasted 235 weeks (FIBONACCI #=233).
11. The blue 5 wave impulsive sequence shows several unique relationships in the rally shown (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
12. We can see that Wave 5 / Wave 3 ~ PHI ~ Wave 3 / Wave 1.
13. These relationships are marked by the green arrows and the two green boxes.
14. The .500 at the top of the CHART shows that the time spent in the blue Wave 1 rally is about equal to that of the rest of the move.
15. Of the entire advance shown, the blue Wave 1 is about equal to .214 of the advance (1.000-SQ RT PHI=.214) and that the blue Wave 3 high marked the halfway point.
16. At the same time, the blue Wave 3 high is about equal to the Wave 2 low + .618 X the advance of blue Wave 5 while the blue Wave 1 high is about equal to .382 X Wave 5.
17. CHART #354 shows daily prices for the continuous spot futures contract.
18. The movement shown appears as a blowoff top for the last three days that ended at the high of the move shown.
19. We can see several interesting relationships in this movement that support a blowoff interpretation.
20. CHART #355 shows hourly prices for the July contract.
21. If the advance shown is complete, we should expect to see an impulsive decline from the high shown in the upper left corner of the CHART.
22. However, as shown in the CHART, the movement seems to be more of an a-b-c movement followed by another a-b-c movement to the high at the right red vertical line.
23. From the second a-b-c high, we can see what appears as a 5 wave impulsive decline marked by the blue numbers in the CHART and then an A-B-C corrective advance (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
24. The question is whether the decline shown has started a new decline as seen by the blue Wave 1 low and Wave 2 high labeling, or whether the decline shown is just another "plain vanilla" A-B-C correction as is shown below the black horizontal trendline shown in the CHART.
25. If the latter, the CHART would suggest that the market is in bullish position.
26. Such is not the favored position.
27. It is expected that this market has made an important peak.
28. CHART #354 of daily prices shows that this market has already triggered a sell signal via the trading technique presented on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual".
29. As this market is believed to be key to the rest of the complex, the market should be monitored closely for insight over the next couple of days.
UPDATED 20060518
COMMENT #173
CHART #356
1. CHART #356 shows 15 minute bars for the June futures contract and updates yesterday's discussion.
2. We can see an almost ideal outcome yesterday in that the market has that big up opening and then spent the rest of the day acting in the expected manner by going down.
3. We can see how important was the gap discussed and the upper percent retracement level.
4. The black 5 wave impulsive decline labeling remains.
5. As the movement up to yeterday's high appears corrective, the movement is labeled as the blue Wave 1 decline / blue Wave 2 advance shown.
6. Since the decline - advance lasted 36 + 28 = 64 hours, the relationship of the two is 1.286 (SQ RT PHI = 1.272).
7. The blue down pitchfork has been added and its relevance to the movement shown highlighted by the green circles.
2. We always want to be aware of those "Inversion Cycle Indexes" in the weekly pages of the April through September edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" which is available in an easy-to-use electronic format. A sample of the format for the charting file may be seen in the NOTICE posted here. Ordering information here!
3. The initial issue of the free "Trading on the Edge" E-Zine was released 20001021. Archived copies are available here. Subscription information here.
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his liberty, and his property."
--Frederic Bastiat
