MAY COMMENTS
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Comment numbers for 20060524 178 179 180
GENERAL COMMENTS
"It would indeed be ironic if,
in the name of national defense,
we would sanction the subversion of one of the liberties . . .
which makes the defense of the Nation worthwhile."
- United States v. Robel, 389 US 258, 264 (1967)
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1. We always want to be aware of those projected turning points on page 368 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition".
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CURRENT COMMENTS
At the feast of ego everyone leaves hungry. UPDATED 20060524
COMMENT #178
CHART #s 365 & 367
1. We recently took a look at the long term picture in the CHART of monthly prices:
2. The outlook for bottoming prices was supported by the blue MIC box (Monthly Inversion Cycle Index) and the decline in price into the projected turn.
3. The question was whether the decline was finished or whether price would rise a little into the red box shown and then move lower to complete the decline.
4. A few days later, it appeared that the market had completed the move lower here:
5. Today's CHART #365 shows daily prices for the continuous spot futures contract.
6. As can be seen, said contract has held the low of last month which has held above the low of late last year marked in the CHART by the horizontal green line.
7. CHART #367 shows daily prices for the July contract where a new low was seen Monday.
8. The Monday low was on schedule.
9. We can see that the final decline of 345 points was almost exactly half that of the blue Wave 5 decline (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
10. The relationships of the two legs is marked in the CHART to the right of the black bracket and measures 1.991 (2.000).
11. The black Wave 5 decline verus the black Wave 1 & black Wave 3 declines measures 1.391 and 1.348 (1.000+SQ[1/PHI]=1.382).
12. The blue Wave 5 decline versus the blue Wave 3 decline is seen at 1.229 in the green box.
13. This is an important relationship to the market as it suggests that the decline to the 323 low is the blue 1-2-3 affair shown and that the entire decline from the February high is not a blue Wave 1 decline (which would make this week's low as but a blue Wave 3 instead of how it is labeled in the CHART which is as a blue Wave 5 completed leg down).
14. The red sloping trendlines show that such momentum oscillators as RSI and Slow Stochastics have failed to confirm the new low in price, thereby forming an important price/momentum oscillator divergence (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
15. The initial up thrust from the low Monday and follow through yesterday suggest that the low is in place and that the market should be traded from the long side.
16. The importance of this move should be reviewed in the CHARTS that have been posted in the COMMENTS of 513 & 519.
UPDATED 20060524
COMMENT #179
CHART #366
1. The CHART shows hourly prices from a few days ago.
2. Here the market was seen as being at the Point of Decision (see discussion in the #175 COMMENT).
3. The expectation was that a but of a correction, at the least, was in store for this market.
4. Today's update of hourly prices for the December contract shows that the correction has (assuming that the CHART is properly interpreted) unfolded in an irregular corrective movement marked in the CHART by the black A-B-C movement (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
5. This movement has lasted 4-7-7=18 hours with 11 up and 7 down (LUCAS #s=4, 7, 11 & 18).
6. These numbers thus show that the movement that has occurred is in PHI proportions.
7. We can see that yesterday's high has retraced 50 percent of the decline to the blue Wave 1 low (see pages 185-7 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
8. The black Wave C advance can be seen, by the blue boxes in the CHART, to have unfolded in the 5 wave sequence shown.
9. We can see how price has carried up into the grey box shown.
10. The decline / advance has lasted 25 & 18 = 43 hours from the high marked at the green right shoulder.
11. If all this is correct, the market should be in place to begin a blue Wave 3 decline that should see new lows for the move.
UPDATED 20060524
COMMENT #180
CHART #368
1. CHART #368 shows hourly prices for the June overnight session contract.
2. The expectation is that the market completed the blue Wave 1 or A high this morning.
3. The problem is that the first leg of this advance appears to have unfolded in the black Wave a-b-c movement (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
4. What suggests that the movement is complete is that the upleg lasted 42 hours (2 X FIBONACCI #21=42) and the blue Wave 5 lasted 21 (FIBONACCI #=21).
5. 42/21=2.000.
6. At the same time, these two uplegs lasted 37 and 36 ticks as shown by the green boxes in the CHART.
7. With 74 in the green Wave 3 advance, W3 / W1 = 74 / 37 = 2.000.
8. The movement lasted 163 total hours (100 X FIBONACCI #1.618=161.8).
9. There are several other interesting relationships shown by the black text in the CHART.
10. The green and red up trendlines show a channel that has been contained price over the last few days.
11. What is suggested is that this movement is complete and that the market should set an A-B-C correction over the next few days that should be bought.
12. Such is consistent with recent discussion anticipating the low in the lower left corner of the CHART.
2. We always want to be aware of those "Inversion Cycle Indexes" in the weekly pages of the April through September edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" which is available in an easy-to-use electronic format. A sample of the format for the charting file may be seen in the NOTICE posted here. Ordering information here!
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