MAY COMMENTS
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Comment numbers for 20060525 181 182 183
GENERAL COMMENTS
"It would indeed be ironic if,
in the name of national defense,
we would sanction the subversion of one of the liberties . . .
which makes the defense of the Nation worthwhile."
- United States v. Robel, 389 US 258, 264 (1967)
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1. We always want to be aware of those projected turning points on page 368 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition".
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CURRENT COMMENTS
It's hard to make a comeback UPDATED 20060525
COMMENT #181
CHART #369
1. A bit ago, we discussed this CHART of yearly prices:
2. The nuances of the CHART can be reviewed, if needed, in the COMMENT number which is the first of the two numbers that follow the "#" sign in the lower right corner.
3. Although the time parameters of that CHART remain pretty much unchanged, the high set 11 days later has altered the price relationships.
4. Today's CHART #369 updates.
5. The important price change is the movement from the red dotted line at the .618 price retracement level in the first CHART to the .786 price retracement level in the second (see pages 185-7 of "The $upertrader's Rererence Manual").
6. The essence of the CHART is that, from the high in the lower left corner, the market declined to the black Wave A low shown and has since advanced to the black Wave B high shown in the upper right corner (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
7. The black Wave B advance is, in turn, seen as having unfolded in the blue a-b-c movement shown.
8. The blue lines above price shows the ideal outcome of 3-13-5=21 years (FIBONACCI #s=3, 5, 13 & 21).
9. The CHART seems important enough to suggest that maybe a pause is in store at the moment to study before moving on to discussion of the Smaller Degrees of Trading.
UPDATED 20060525
COMMENT #182
CHART #s 370 & 371
1. A bit ago, we reviewed quarterly prices in the following two CHARTS:
2. At the bottom, the 8 year Linear Time Cycle was identified by the blue lines shown.
3. The red lines above and below price divided price into the interesting segments shown.
4. The one above price at the top of the page suggested two approximately equal segments in both CHARTs.
5. The movement from the blue Wave B low is the same in both CHARTS and shows the advance as having unfolded in the blue 5 wave sequence shown.
6. Where this low is shown to have occurred is different in these quarterly CHARTs than is the low in the yearly CHARTs in the previous COMMENT.
7. The difference in the quarterly CHARTS is where the blue boxed Wave A low is assumed to have occurred.
8. The #278 CHART shows the blue boxed Wave A low as having occurred a bit below that of the #279 CHART.
9. Today's #370 & #371 CHARTs update to adjust primarily for some price relationships.
10. The time relationships remain as presented in the #278 & #279 CHARTS.
11. The #370 CHART shows what actually has been the favored structure of the market.
12. This structure defines the move from the upper left corner as a decline to the blue boxed Wave A low followed by the blue A-B-C advance to the blue boxed Wave B high in the upper right corner.
13. The black arrows show that the relationship between the blue boxed Wave B advance versus the blue boxed Wave A decline, in terms of price, is 1.216 in the #370 CHART (SQ RT PHI=1.272).
14. In the #371 CHART, the same relationship is seen to have increase a bit to 1.245.
15. This brings the ratio closer to the true value of 1.272 for the SQ RT PHI.
16. The blue pitchforks in both CHARTS show how the geometry of this seemingly minor change has also brought the ascending blue pitchfork shown in both CHARTS from the blue boxed Wave A low and incorporating the blue A-B points of the blue boxed Wave B advance into play in the #371 CHART.
17. Further, the ratio, in time, of the blue Boxed Wave B advance of 85 quarters to the blue boxed Wave A decline of 20 quarters is 4.250 (CUB PHI=4.236) in the #371 CHART but is not a meaningful value in the #370 CHART.
18. All this would seem to suggest that the #371 CHART of quarterly prices is actually the better interpretation.
19. Here we see that several of the relationships shown by the various arrows in the CHART have come into alignment with SQ RT PHI as a result of the 11 day increase in price.
20. Important among these relationships is that the blue Wave 5 advance is now related to the blue Wave 3 advance by 1.541 (PHI=1.618) and to the blue Wave 1 advance by 3.645 (1.000 + SQ PHI=3.618).
21. The dn / up number of quarters in the blue boxed Wave B advance, shown in the upper right corner by the blue numbers, is 1.237 (SQ RT PHI=1.272).
22. The point of all this is that price has advanced up to the next point of pause.
23. This point is expected to end the blue boxed Wave B advance as shown in the CHART.
24. From this high, price is expected to move down to a blue boxed Wave C low, one logically alternative of which is shown in the lower right corner.
UPDATED 20060525
COMMENT #183
CHART #372
1. The following CHART shows monthly prices for the continuous spot futures CHART and is also an update.
2. The updated changes are, for the most part, minor.
3. The prior CHART has thus not been included.
4. This CHART uses the low shown in the #371 CHART for Wave A and the low shown in the yearly CHART which was at the 8 year cycle low for the black Wave b of B.
5. The two green boxes are now equal at 61 months each (5 years=60 months).
6. As the black Wave b of decline totaled 160 months (100 X PHI=161.8) and the advance 61 months (100 X 1/PHI=61.8), we know that these legs are going to be in approximate PHI relationship.
7. The actual number is 2.623 (SQ PHI=2.618).
8. The red line shows how the current high is about twice that of the black Wave a of B high added to itself.
9. The information in the monthly CHART is thus consistent with that of the yearly and quarterly discussions.
2. We always want to be aware of those "Inversion Cycle Indexes" in the weekly pages of the April through September edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" which is available in an easy-to-use electronic format. A sample of the format for the charting file may be seen in the NOTICE posted here. Ordering information here!
3. The initial issue of the free "Trading on the Edge" E-Zine was released 20001021. Archived copies are available here. Subscription information here.
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