MAY COMMENTS
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Comment numbers for 20060530 186 187
GENERAL COMMENTS
"It would indeed be ironic if,
in the name of national defense,
we would sanction the subversion of one of the liberties . . .
which makes the defense of the Nation worthwhile."
- United States v. Robel, 389 US 258, 264 (1967)
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1. We always want to be aware of those projected turning points on page 368 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition".
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CURRENT COMMENTS
"When I was a boy I was told that anybody could become President; UPDATED 20060530
COMMENT #186
CHART #375
1. CHART #375 shows daily prices for the continuous spot futures contract.
2. Friday's commitment of trader's information is shown in the bottom box.
3. The net commercial position is shown by the red line and the small speculator by the green.
4. The green circles show where these two lines have been about equal and the rally that followed thereafter.
5. We can see, by the red dashed horizontal line at the bottom, that current net commercial levels are more negative than they were earlier in the month.
6. On the other hand, what is of especial interest is the net small spec position.
7. The blue horizontal dashed line shows the decline that ensued when the small specs were last as bullish as they are now.
8. The green vertical up arrow a year or so ago showed how price continued lower after such levels were attained.
9. That the small specs have increased their net long position over the last couple of weeks given the price action shown is rather astonishing.
10. The two red up arrows show the dates on which the last two readings were taken.
11. The red circles show the last couple of times when the gap between these two lines widened.
12. We could also easily include the values of last summer when the blue Wave 1 high shown in the CHART was set.
13. To the far right, we can see how the lines now, in spite of the decline in price, are wider now than at any time over the period shown in the CHART.
UPDATED 20060530
COMMENT #187
CHART #376
1. CHART #376 shows weekly prices and continues last week's discussion.
2. The favored position of the blue Wave 4 low late last year is shown in the bottom of the CHART.
3. The advantage of this position is that the 3rd and 5th black uplegs are equal in time at 6 weeks each and are about equal in price at 82.4 and 85.6 points.
4. These two black waves are part of the green Wave 3 advance which lasted 144.8 points (FIBONACCI #=144) and was in relation to the black Wave 5 advance at 1.692 : 1.000 (PHI=1.618).
5. Black Wave 3 : Black Wave 1 = 2.070 (PHI X SQ RT PHI=2.058).
6. The green Wave 5 upleg versus the green Wave 1 upleg is 6.837 (4th POWER of PHI=6.854).
7. Again, we see that this favored interpretation of the weekly price action over the last 1 ½ years or so does not affect the longer term perspective shown recently by the monthly, quarterly and yearly CHARTS.
2. We always want to be aware of those "Inversion Cycle Indexes" in the weekly pages of the April through September edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" which is available in an easy-to-use electronic format. A sample of the format for the charting file may be seen in the NOTICE posted here. Ordering information here!
3. The initial issue of the free "Trading on the Edge" E-Zine was released 20001021. Archived copies are available here. Subscription information here.
4. NOTICE of refund and cancellation polices may be accessed here.
I'm beginning to believe."
--Clarence Darrow
