JUNE COMMENTS
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Comment numbers for 20060612 201 202
GENERAL COMMENTS
"It would indeed be ironic if,
in the name of national defense,
we would sanction the subversion of one of the liberties . . .
which makes the defense of the Nation worthwhile."
- United States v. Robel, 389 US 258, 264 (1967)
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1. We always want to be aware of those projected turning points on page 368 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition".
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CURRENT COMMENTS
"Five percent of the people think; UPDATED 20060612
COMMENT #201
CHART #403
1. Keeping in mind the possible corrective nature of the following market, we now want to explore if this possible corrective setup may be seen anywhere else.
2. We thus want to take a look at CHART #403 of hourly prices for the day session September contract.
3. From the low, we can see that the movement to the high shown in the upper right corner has occurred over 40-42-39=121 hours (2 X FIBONACCI #21=42, 3 X FIBONACCI #13=39 & SQ LUCAS #11=121).
4. The black arrows shows that the two advancing segments are about equal.
5. The price advance of each segment is marked in the CHART in the green boxes and connected by the green arrows.
6. We can see that these two uplegs are about equal at 78 ticks each (6 X FIBONACCI #13=78).
7. The advance has carried up to the center prong of the ascending pitchfork as can be seen in the CHART.
8. The green up channel trendlines show that price has carried up to the upper up channel trendline.
9. The movement is not expected to peter out here.
10. It is expected to carry higher.
11. However, just as in the first market above, we can see that this market has reached the Point of Decision.
12. This is where markets either prove their promise by accelerating through the point of resistance or run the risk of turning into a counter-trend A-B-C corrective movement (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
13. When the acceleration does occur, the right upleg often turns out to be Wave 1 of a 3rd Wave advance.
UPDATED 20060612
COMMENT #202
CHART #s 404-406
1. Recently, we were expecting a rally of about 16 hours to occur that was to take price back up to the upper up channel trendline shown in the CHART of hourly prices for the June contract.
2. The same expectation was reviewed in the following CHART of hourly June prices here.
3. The numerous impulsive (5 wave pattern) downlegs shown in the CHART suggested lower prices.
4. Today's CHART #406 updates the hourly CHART of June prices.
5. Here we can see how price did advance into the 16 hour high shown in the CHART.
6. From the high, the market declined to the low shown where the two short red sloping trendlines show a price/momentum oscillator divergence has occurred (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
7. The following CHART #404 of hourly June prices updates the second market.
8. From the red Wave C high shown, we can see how the market decline that followed unfolded in the 5 wave impulsive sequence shown.
9. Hence, the CHART is composed of a 90 hour decline, 38 hour rally and 30 hour decline.
10. 90/30=3.000.
11. 38/30=1.267 (SQ RT PHI=1.272).
12. From the low, the market has rallied 6 hours and decline 5 into Friday's low.
13. The ideal will see a sharp decline the first hour this morning to complete the Wave B low shown in the CHART after 6+6=12 hours from the recent low.
14. The question presented is whether the 30 hour decline is Wave 1 of a 3rd.
15. For this to be the case, the 90 hour decline would have to be a completed 5 wave impulsive sequence down to complete a Larger Degree of Trading Wave [I] low.
16. The 38 hour A-B-C correction to the high at the red dotted line marking the 50 percent price retracement level would the be Wave [II].
17. This would mean that the 30 hour decline is Wave 1 of [III] and that the market is now in the process of setting a Wave 2 of [III] corrective high.
18. If such is the case, the market is in very bearish position.
19. Now let's take a look at daily prices for the cash index in CHART #405.
20. This CHART actually updates the following CHART.
21. We can see how price has declined from the high shown over 34 calendar days to the low shown in the lower right corner (FIBONACCI #=34).
22. The small red arrows show how turns have occurred at the Astro Turning Point projected turns listed on page 368 of "The $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition".
23. As can be seen in the CHART, the decline has taken price down into the blue boxes shown representing the WIC and MIC projected turns (Weekly and Monthly Inversion Cycle Indexes).
24. It is easier to argue in the daily CHART that the decline to the first low shown at the Wave 5 low did, in fact, complete a 5 wave impulsive decline.
25. That would make the A-B-C correction shown in the hourly CHART as the Wave [II] corrective high discussed above.
26. The blue boxes suggest a more important low.
27. However, about 15 percent of the time, the boxes do not mark a price reversal, but experience a price acceleration.
28. In short, a good down opening this morning is likely to be supported and to set a Wave B of 2 low.
29. The character of the rise, should it occur, should then provide clues as to whether or not this interpretation is likely to unfold as discussed.
30. Overall, lower prices are still expected and errors should be to the downside.
2. We always want to be aware of those "Inversion Cycle Indexes" in the weekly pages of the April through September edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" which is available in an easy-to-use electronic format. A sample of the format for the charting file may be seen in the NOTICE posted here. Ordering information here!
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ten percent of the people think they think;
and the other eighty-five percent would rather die than think."
--Thomas Edison
