JUNE COMMENTS
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Comment numbers for 20060615 208 209
GENERAL COMMENTS
"It would indeed be ironic if,
in the name of national defense,
we would sanction the subversion of one of the liberties . . .
which makes the defense of the Nation worthwhile."
- United States v. Robel, 389 US 258, 264 (1967)
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1. We always want to be aware of those projected turning points on page 368 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition".
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CURRENT COMMENTS
The greatest exercise for the heart is reaching down and lifting people up.
UPDATED 20060615
COMMENT #208
CHART #417
1. This market made its high for the year in early January as shown in the following CHART of weekly prices.
2. From that high, the market was believed to have declined in a 5 wave impulsive sequence marked in the following CHART of daily continuous spot futures prices.
3. The market was believed to be in position to set a blue Wave II trading high the next day.
4. The market was seen in the vicinity of the blue and red boxes above price a few days later and the market was again reviewed.
5. The final blue Wave 2 high is shown in the following CHART.
6. Note the blue descending pitchfork and the lower prong as it will be seen in today's CHART below.
7. The essence of the CHART was that, from the blue Wave 2 high, the market had formed the black Wave 1 - 2 "running correction" sequence (bearish).
8. As an alternative, the complex movement was seen as a series of Wave 1 - 2 sequences below the black line in the lower right corner (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
9. The break that was occurring to the downside was from the red and blue boxes above price as seen in the following CHART of daily prices.
10. Today's CHART shows how price has descended to the lower blue descending pitchfork prong at a time of the green WLC (Weekly Linear Time Cycle Index projected low) and blue MIC (Monthly Inversion Cycle Index projected turn).
11. The total decline from the January high is shown in the lower right corner by the red numbers and measures 263.25 points (100 X SQ PHI = 261.80).
12. We can see that the black Wave 3 decline versus the black Wave 1 decline are in a ratio of 1.640 (PHI=1.618) as shown by the green arrows.
13. We can see, by the short red sloping trendline in the bottom box showing such momentum oscillators as RSI and Slow Stochastics that price is diverging with the momentum oscillators (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
14. The information suggests that a counter-trend, corrective rally is likely.
15. Nevertheless, the trend remains down and errors should continue to favor the short side.
16. Finally, one should keep in mind that the decline from the black Wave 2 high to the black Wave 3 low is not from a retest high in other markets in the complex, but is from what is the equivalent of the blue Wave 2 high in early May in the above CHART.
UPDATED 20060615
COMMENT #209
CHART #418
1. The CHART shows daily prices for the continuous spot futures contracts for the markets shown.
2. The important event is that, although the markets in the top row traded above the red horizontal line recently, those in the bottom row did not.
3. Even in the top row, the market on the right did not make a new high as did the market on the left day-before-yesterday.
4. The market on the right in the bottom row has now made a new low for the move.
5. A few days ago, we were discussing how the market in the upper left corner had reached the Point of Decision where markets either accelerate or end a counter-trend correction.
6. The weakness in the lower right corner market suggests that the movement from last month's low is an A-B-C correction.
7. However, the picture's not clear at the moment.
8. Hence, we'll address again in a couple of days or so.
2. We always want to be aware of those "Inversion Cycle Indexes" in the weekly pages of the April through September edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" which is available in an easy-to-use electronic format. A sample of the format for the charting file may be seen in the NOTICE posted here. Ordering information here!
3. The initial issue of the free "Trading on the Edge" E-Zine was released 20001021. Archived copies are available here. Subscription information here.
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