JUNE COMMENTS
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Comment numbers for 20060619 211 212 213 214
GENERAL COMMENTS
"It would indeed be ironic if,
in the name of national defense,
we would sanction the subversion of one of the liberties . . .
which makes the defense of the Nation worthwhile."
- United States v. Robel, 389 US 258, 264 (1967)
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1. We always want to be aware of those projected turning points on page 368 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition".
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CURRENT COMMENTS
"The world has cancer, and the cancer is man." UPDATED 20060616
COMMENT #211
CHART #s 422-423
1. In the following CHART of a few days ago, we were discussing how the market was at the Point of Decision where the upside movement either runs out of energy and becomes an A-B-C corrective movement or accelerates through the upside green upper up channel trendline and becomes a 3rd wave advance requiring the expenditure of more time and price (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
2. Recently, the following CHART showed how the contract in the lower right corner of the CHART had broken the low shown, thereby lessening the probability of potential upside acceleration.
3. Today's CHART #422 updates.
4. In the upper right corner we see the A-B-C outcome.
5. In the upper left corner we see the alternative.
6. The alternative allows that the CHART has now seen the CHART in the lower left corner join the break of the low made by the CHART in the lower right corner.
7. We can see that the break of the low in the lower left corner is of much greater importance, however, since the low in the market in the lower left corner is the same low in mid-May that was set by the two markets in the upper row.
8. The alternative scenario in the upper left corner has still not been negated, however.
9. Let's move to the #423 CHART which also shows daily prices.
10. The difference in the #422 and #423 CHARTS is that the first is of the continuous spot futures contracts while the second is of daily day session September contracts.
11. The black circles mark the mid-May lows from which the movement originated.
12. The market in the lower right corner shows several circles as lower lows continued to be set.
13. In the lower left corner, we can see how both the pink and green horizontal trendlines have been breached.
14. In the upper row, we can see that these lines are still holding, though the pink line for the market in the upper right corner is close to failing.
15. This is probably the most important market we can focus on right now as it affects so many others.
UPDATED 20060616
COMMENT #212
CHART #424
1. Recently, these CHARTS were suggesting a bottom at hand.
2. CHART # 424 of daily prices for the December contract updates.
3. We can see how the two items in the lower right corner of the CHART are in play now in this market.
4. The red up arrow is from page 368 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition".
5. We can see that the commercial interests have increased their net long position in this market in Friday's report to the highest level of the last year or so.
UPDATED 20060616
COMMENT #213
CHART #s 425-426
1. CHART #425 updates hourly prices for the September contract through Friday's close.
2. The total advance lasted 139 hours (FIBONACCI #=144).
3. We can see that price is approaching the .786 retracement level of the 601 to 613 advance of 57 hours (FIBONACCI #=55).
4. The two red sloping trendlines show that price is diverging with such momentum oscillators as RSI and Slow Stochastics (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
5. CHART #426 updates through early this morning (Monday).
6. We want to focus on the possibility that the advance from the 601 low of 57 hours is the blue Wave 1 discussed earlier in the alternative proposal and that the decline of 29 hours to this morning's low is now setting a blue Wave 2 low (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
7. The reason this alternative remains a possibility is because of the information in this CHART, the most important of which is the green and blue boxes in the lower right corner.
8. We can see that the trading technique presented on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" is now set up for long side entry this morning with very little risk to the position if wrong.
UPDATED 20060619
COMMENT #214
CHART #s 425-426
1. CHART #425 updates hourly prices for the September contract through Friday's close.
2. The total advance lasted 139 hours (FIBONACCI #=144).
3. We can see that price is approaching the .786 retracement level of the 601 to 613 advance of 57 hours (FIBONACCI #=55).
4. The two red sloping trendlines show that price is diverging with such momentum oscillators as RSI and Slow Stochastics (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
5. CHART #426 updates through early this morning (Monday).
6. We want to focus on the possibility that the advance from the 601 low of 57 hours is the blue Wave 1 discussed earlier in the alternative proposal and that the decline of 29 hours to this morning's low is now setting a blue Wave 2 low (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
7. If so, the market is at a 50 percent time retracement point at the same time that the market is at a .786 price retracement level.
8. The reason this alternative remains a possibility is because of the information in this CHART, the most important of which is the green and blue boxes in the lower right corner.
9. We can see that the trading technique presented on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" is now set up for long side entry this morning with very little risk to the position if wrong.
2. We always want to be aware of those "Inversion Cycle Indexes" in the weekly pages of the April through September edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" which is available in an easy-to-use electronic format. A sample of the format for the charting file may be seen in the NOTICE posted here. Ordering information here!
3. The initial issue of the free "Trading on the Edge" E-Zine was released 20001021. Archived copies are available here. Subscription information here.
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--A. Gregg, Mankind at the Turning Point
