JUNE COMMENTS
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Comment numbers for 20060620 215
GENERAL COMMENTS
"It would indeed be ironic if,
in the name of national defense,
we would sanction the subversion of one of the liberties . . .
which makes the defense of the Nation worthwhile."
- United States v. Robel, 389 US 258, 264 (1967)
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1. We always want to be aware of those projected turning points on page 368 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition".
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CURRENT COMMENTS
"The hardest tumble a man can make is to fall over his own bluff." UPDATED 20060620
COMMENT #215
CHART #427
(Posted late morning 20060620)
1. Yesterday, we took a look at the possibility that the market in the upper left corner would attempt to set the low suggested by the pattern in the CHART versus the corrective pattern seen in the upper right corner and movement to new lows by the markets in the bottom row.
2. The market in the upper right corner joined those in the bottom row by the end of the day by taking out the low of the second potential 1-2 pattern (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual") thereby negating the setup for the 3rd of the four markets.
3. This left only the one in the upper left corner that might still set the low and advance in price.
4. For awhile yesterday, the market appeared that it would hold the black horizontal price level shown in the following CHART of hourly September prices.
5. The low was broken this morning, however, though the potential for the blue Wave 1-2 movement has not been totally negated.
6. The reason this development is of importance is due to when the formation began.
7. That date is shown in the lower left corner of the above hourly CHART.
8. It was also at this time that many other markets made important turns.
9. Stocks and metals, for example, peaked.
10. The dollar bottomed against other currencies which topped.
11. This turn together of several markets is consistent with the liquidity affect we've been discussing over the last several years.
12. It's where markets, today, move and turn together being more affected by monetary and financial developments than by, or so it often seems, events in individual markets.
13. So let's update one of the most important of these markets and see if the weakness shown above is starting to spread to other markets.
14. At the bottom of the following market, this weekly CHART suggested bottoming prices:
15. A daily CHART of the cash index posted the same day saw the movement from the low in the lower left corner as being an advance to the blue Wave [A] high and decline to the blue Wave [B] low.
16. The blue Wave [B] decline was composed of the blue A-B-C legs and the blue Wave B of [B] advance composed of the blue Wave a-b-c-d-e movement shown (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
17. Price was at the blue and green WIC and WLC (Weekly Inversion Cycle Index projected turn and Weekly Linear Time Cycle Index projected low).
18. The bottoming picture did not change a couple of weeks later when the following CHART was posted at the low:
19. From that latter low, today's CHART of daily prices for the continuous spot futures contract is released.
20. At the bottom, we can see how the red line shows that commercial interests remain favorably disposed towards this market.
21. We can see how the market has declined from the high shown at the blue Inversion Cycle Index boxes above price to the low shown at the blue and green boxes.
22. From the low, we can see how price has rallied to the blue box in June.
23. This rally from the 512 low has occurred, as shown just above the blue box, over 6-9-6=21 trading days (FIBONACCI #=21).
24. This movement suggests the possibility that the advance to the 522 high, decline to the 605 low and advance to the 613 high is an A-B-C corrective (counter-trend) corrective movement and that the advance, just as the bond complex did recently at the Point of Decision, is about to run out of gas.
25. We can see that the long red sloping down trendline is providing stiff resistance to continuation of the up trend at the present time.
26. The information in the CHART suggests that the early June low is of greater importance than just a temporary pause in a continuing downtrend.
27. The blue box at the 613 high is what it is, however.
28. It would not be surprising to see this market make a temporary minor Wave 1 high on the 13th and to then retest the early June low.
29. The alternative now is for the market to break vigorously through the 613 high and the red down trendline now and accelerate the uptrend.
30. It would seem that this is how commercial interests are positioned.
2. We always want to be aware of those "Inversion Cycle Indexes" in the weekly pages of the April through September edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" which is available in an easy-to-use electronic format. A sample of the format for the charting file may be seen in the NOTICE posted here. Ordering information here!
3. The initial issue of the free "Trading on the Edge" E-Zine was released 20001021. Archived copies are available here. Subscription information here.
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--Ambrose Bierce
