"Procrastination is the art of keeping up with yesterday."

--Don Marquis

UPDATED 20060626

COMMENT #216

CHART #s 428-430 & 435

(Post-close COMMENT)

1. CHART #428 updates weekly prices.

2. There are some minor adjustments.

3. As can be seen, the assumed blue Wave B decline assumes a low this week and that the decline will have unfolded in a 3-9-9=21 week movement with b of B=9=c of B and c of B / a of B = 3.000.

4. Such would mean that the decline from the high has lasted 27-18-21=66 weeks with 18 up (LUCAS #=18) and 48 down (LUCAS #=47).

5. CHART #429 updates daily prices for the continuous spot futures contract and shows the red Linear Time Cycle Index projected highs, green Linear Time Cycle Index projected lows and blue Inversion Cycle Index projected turns.

6. Price has been moving down into the green and blue boxes in the lower right corner.

7. Prices are as of Friday's close.

8. The red lines at the top of the CHART identify two approximately equal segments of 89 trading days (FIBONACCI #=89).

9. Another 89 trading day segment shifted a few trading days to the right is marked in the CHART by the blue lines and consists of two 44 and 45 trading day segments.

10. We can see that the small short red sloping trendline continues to signal that such momentum oscillators as RSI and Slow Stochastics are failing to confirm the new price lows, thereby forming important price/momentum oscillator divergences (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

11. The red line in the very bottom box shows that commercial interests continue to increase their long position.

12. The black and blue horizontal arrows pointing to the right show the price levels at which the blue Wave C decline is equal to the blue Wave A decline and the price level where the black Wave 5 decline is equal to the black Wave 1 decline.

13. CHART #430 shows the December contract.

14. We can see that price is right at the green dashed horizontal price support line.

15. The most important line in this CHART remains the upper descending blue pitchfork line which has provided resistance over the last couple of months.

16. The event at the black up arrow in the following CHART is still an important factor.

17. CHART #435 shows hourly prices for the December contract through the close of trading Monday, 626.

18. From the early June high, the market appears to be have unfolded in the movement shown.

19. If the movement is complete today, then the blue numbered movement will have unfolded in 1-1-12-23-29=66 hours (2 X FIBONACCI #34=68) with 24 up and 42 down (2 X FIBONACCI #s 13& 21 = 26 & 42) with the blue Wave 4 movement lasting 5-13-5 hours.

20. Under this interpretation, the blue Wave 5 descending triangle marked in the CHART by the two green descending trendlines has lasted 4-6-11-5-3=29 hours with 11 up and 18 down (LUCAS #s=11, 18 & 29).

21. The LUCAS #s alert us that the green descending triangle has unfolded in PHI proportions.

UPDATED 20060626

COMMENT #217

CHART #s 431-434

(Post-close COMMENT)

1. CHART #434 updates monthly prices.

2. From the 24 month high shown, the market has declined 32 months through June.

3. 24+32=56 months total (FIBONACCI #=55).

4. The break of the green up trendline is clearly the most notable event on the CHART.

5. Equally important, however, is the 4-6-4=14 month decline from the April high a year or so ago.

6. When we go back to February, the following CHART showed that an important high was expected to be established:

7. The 256 trading day segment marked by the red lines that preceded this topping action will be shown, below, to be related to today's price action.

8. We can see in the following CHART how commercial interests were supporting price in August and December but had moved to more-negative levels at the time than were seen at the October high.

9. The market was believed here to be experiencing the black Wave A decline and black Wave B rise, suggesting a black Wave C decline to follow (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

10. A couple of weeks later, the market was believed to have set the black Wave C decline and to have formed the larger blue Wave A high and blue Wave B low shown in the next CHART.

11. Commercials had moved back up to very positive net long positions.

12. The next CHART shows, however, that the 323 low did not end the decline, but only marked a pause.

13. The market was seen as at the bottom of the red descending channel shown and at the bottom blue descending pitchfork line.

14. A few days later, the continuous spot futures contract was not making a new low as were other individual contracts such as the December contract shown on the right.

15. What was suggested at the time was that the black Wave C decline was again ready to be set as shown here:

16. This low led to a rally over the next month as today's CHART #432 of daily continuous spot futures prices shows.

17. However, price was not done to the downside.

18. The CHART shows 169 trading days (SQ FIBONACCI #13=169) to the 815 low of last summer and then another 216 to today (1 ½ X FIBONACCI #144=216, CUBE 6=216).

19. 385 total (FIBONACCI #=377).

20. This places the two segments in relationship of 1.278 (SQ RT PHI=1.272).

21. But the date of the low, 815, in today's #432 CHART has been moved forward 4 calendar days from the 819 CHART shown above.

22. When the 819 low is used, the number of trading days in the next segment that ends at the February high is reduced from 132 to 128 trading days.

23. This measurement is exactly half the 256 of the earlier segment.

24. To today's low, the movement is seen as having unfolded in 83-91-82-128-84 trading days.

25. The 1st, 3rd and 5th segments are thus approximately equal at 83, 82 & 84 trading days to today.

26. But as can be seen in the above CHART, the decline from the high can hardly be seen as having declined in a 5 wave sequence as would normally be expected to be seen in such a down-up-down movement.

27. When we inspect the same movement in the CHART #433 of daily spot futures prices for the July contract from the February high, however, we can see how the blue numbers 1 through 5 appear to identify a pretty clear 5 wave impulsive decline.

28. The black A-B-C sequence is able to be identified in this CHART, and the blue Wave A high / blue Wave B low continues to suggest that the next event should be, at a minimum, a blue Wave C advance.

29. At the bottom of the CHART, we can see that the blue Wave B decline unfolded in 83-110-97=290 trading days with 110 up and 180 down.

30. If we divide the 110, 180 and 290 by 10, we can see that only LUCAS #s 11, 18 & 29 are left meaning that the movement is in PHI proportions to today's low.

31. In the lower right corner, we can see, just above the black "C" and blue "B", the reason today's low is of importance.

32. In inspecting the black Wave C decline, we can see that the blue Wave 3 portion is about 1.242 (SQ RT PHI=1.272) times the blue Wave 1 decline and that the blue Wave 3 and blue Wave 5 legs are about equal.

33. CHART #434 shows daily prices for the December contract.

34. Here we obviously do not see the same Elliott Wave pattern as is the July contract.

35. We can see how the green lower descending channel trendline has come into play and how the blue descending pitchfork line has also come into play at these lows.

36. The upper descending pitchfork line is seen as relative at the June high.

37. The net of this information is that this market, like the one in the prior COMMENT, is believed to be ready to set the next important low.

38. Further, the manner in which both of these markets have reacted of late suggests the likelihood that the following information will be of greater importance than usual to the markets identified.

39. We can identify those markets in the bottom left corner of the following page of The $upertrader's Almanac.