They're either elected or appointed;
WORSE yet, they're payed, on average,
at least twice as much as the average American
and have more benefits than a single prostitute when the fleets in.

--Anon

UPDATED 20060720

COMMENT #244

CHART #s 488-491

(Posted mid-morning Thursday, 20060720)

1. We haven't taken a look at the following indicator since the end of last year when a buy signal was provided at the right side of the CHART as the magenta line shot upwards.

2. The buy signal led to a short term rally to the high of the last few years in the following market.

3. In the 20060512 COMMENT, we discussed the importance of identifying the key markets(s) in a complex as a means to gaining insight as to the rest of the complex.

4. The short red line in the above CHART of daily prices for the March contract shows the sell short signal provided by the trading technique presented on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual".

5. CHART #488 updates daily information for the last 1 ½ years or so.

6. The colors are changes a little so that the green lines can be associated with buy signals and the red with sell signals.

7. The red and green dotted lines are drawn from the extremes recorded for most of 2005.

8. We can see how values went above the green dotted horizontal line a few days ago.

9. This was the first time this year since the indicator did the same late last year (see the first CHART above).

10. That buy signal led to a new high for the last few years as seen in the 2nd CHART above.

11. Not all the markets in this complex peaked at this time.

12. A little bit ago, we saw how three important highs so far this year were identified in the following CHART of daily prices.

13. These highs have been identified in today's CHART #488 below the thin red line.

14. We can see how this indicator did not provide anything insightful at these highs.

15. The movement a few days ago at the recent low, however, would seem to be, near term, of importance.

16. CHART #489 is a replay from the COMMENTS of 713.

17. From the 35.6% values shown, the current readings have widened the spread again to 42.2% and 33.3%.

18. The quick rewidening of this spread is normal and is more indicative of how quick folks are wanting to reenter this complex from the buy side.

19. The key market we want to return to today moved through an important price support level when it broke the pink horizontal line shown in the following CHART earlier this year:

20. The decline continued over the next couple of months eventually forming the 5 wave impulsive sequence shown here (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual"):

21. The 5 wave impulsive sequence suggested that the true trend in this market was down since the high in the upper left corner of the CHART was set and that the rest of the complex, though one more minor new high remained to be set, was in very weak position.

22. At the end of March, it seemed that the market was in position to set the blue Wave II high shown.

23. The high in this market occurred a few days later at the red MLC and WLC projected highs shown in the upper right corner of this CHART (Monthly and Weekly Linear Time Cycle Index projected highs from the April-September edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles"):

24. From the early April high we can see the importance of the two pink horizontal lines shown in the CHART.

25. In the first instance at the top, price was unable to break the early high of the year.

26. In the second, price has returned to the price support level of March and assumed blue Wave I low.

27. Note the low shown in the very left corner of the above CHART and how the ensuing rally began from April of last year and experienced the 3 legged rally to the blue Wave 1 high shown in August.

28. Note the early July low, also, as these will come into play later in this COMMENT.

29. The traditional movement experienced by such an ascending diagonal triangle formation as the one shown in the CHART by the red ascending trendlines see price return to the beginning of the move which, in this case, would be the April low shown in the lower left corner.

30. So if the March low was a true blue Wave I low as was believed at the time, the assumption was that this market was in a blue Wave III decline at the time this CHART was posted.

31. This information was thus key to the rest of the complex because the most insightful CHART that was making a new high for the year was certainly not about to see the Wave III acceleration of the first market.

32. But it was peaking, and the peak shown was the high for the last several years.

33. The next CHART of daily prices shows how the pink horizontal line was broken and how the decline appeared about to find support at the blue and green boxes shown.

34. The whole movement was thus a decline from the red boxes to the green.

35. From the low, another important event occurred when price was unable to break above the pink horizontal line drawn from the black Wave 1 low of March.

36. Price, again, was approaching the next blue WIC (Weekly Inversion Cycle Index projected turn) shown in the lower right corner and, from the black Wave 4 high, was also at the next pink horizontal trendline.

37. The green arrows show how the black Wave 1 and Wave 3 declines were in beautiful PHI proportions.

38. We can see how price found support at the lower blue descending pitchfork line.

39. In the next CHART of weekly prices of a few days ago, we can see how price had edged through the lower red ascending channel trendline.

40. The 26 and 16 week measurements of the two downlegs (2 X FIBONACCI #8=16 and 2 X FIBONACCI #13=26) suggested that caution was at hand.

41. With that background, we can now proceed with today's CHART #490 of daily prices for the continuous spot futures index.

42. Here we see a 12 trading day rally to the black Wave 4 low and then another 12 trading day segment consisting of the decline to the low shown.

43. Price has moved below the pink horizontal trendline shown and down into the blue box.

44. The red numbers in the red boxes report that the black Wave 1 decline and black Wave 5 decline (if that's what it is) are almost exactly equal.

45. For example, the 5 wave impulsive decline to the January low of last year saw the 3rd and 5th downlegs, identified in the following CHART by the negative red numbers, was shown in the March contract of this market here:

46. The April low (remember the April low shown in the lower left corner of the above CHART) ended the A-B-C decline and set the low of the year in this key market as shown in the following CHART:

47. Here we see the two red boxes showing how the two downlegs identified in the CHART were, again, almost exactly equal.

48. The black arrows show how the blue Wave A and blue Wave C declines were in almost exact PHI proportions.

49. The reason the above market was so important at the time was because the failure to make a new high in March as shown here ….. :

50. ….. did not align with the new high made here …..

51. ….. signifying that the breakout to new highs for the year was a false flag operation.

52. The green arrows show that the ratio of the black Wave 3 decline to the decline from the black Wave 4 high is) 1.240 (SQ RT PHI=1.272).

53. The total decline is the red number in the lower right corner not in a box.

54. We can see that the ratio of this total decline to the decline from the black Wave 4 high is 2.060 (PHI X SQ RT PHI=2.058).

55. We can see a very important segmentation in this market in that the rise from the London bombing of last year to the high of the move lasted 132 trading and 187 calendar days whereas the decline from that high to the India bombing lasted 133 trading and 187 calendar days, or vitual exact equality.

56. The total movement lasted 374 calendar days as shown in the CHART (FIBONACCI #=377) with, in the decline, 45 up and 143 calendar days (FIBONACCI #=144).

57. At the black Wave 3 low, we can see how price experienced a short term false breakdown below the October low of last year and the pink dashed horizontal line.

58. This month, price appears to be doing the same thing by experiencing the short term break of the low of last July marked in the CHART by the thin pink horizontal line.

59. The short thick pink horizontal line has come into play.

60. This line is drawn off the black Wave 3 low.

61. Yesterday's high was just below this line, from which price broke back.

62. If the 5 wave movement identified by the 5 black numbers in the CHART is complete, then price should experience an upward corrective movement in proportion to the 133 trading and 187 calendar day decline shown.

63. Price is attempting to, again, bounce up off the lower blue pitchfork line just as it did at the black Wave 3 low.

64. Since the decline essentially lasted 6 months, a 2 to 4 month correction would be typical with price retracing 100-200 points or so of the decline.

65. However, another very probable alternative is that the correction (assuming it occurs as expected) will be very short and will not be able to break above the black Wave 4 high.

66. Should such turn out to be the case, then the 12 trading day decline from the black Wave 4 high will likely turn out to be but the 1st Wave of the black Wave 5 downleg instead of the entirety of the black Wave 5 decline itself.

67. If this turns out to be the case, the black Wave 5 decline from the black Wave 4 high will unfold in another blue 5 wave sequence similar to that decline seen from the April black Wave 2 high to the June black Wave 3 low.

68. Should such turn out to be the case, the black Wave 5 decline will likely dwarf the black Wave 3 decline in both price and time.

69. For now, the July low is expected to hold and for price to trade higher over the short term.

70. However, the market overall, from a long term perspective, still is presumed to be in a very weak position and errors should favor the downside.

71. Hence, a break of the July low should be taken that the market has much lower objectives.

UPDATED 20060720

COMMENT #245

CHART #491

(Posted mid-morning Thursday, 20060720)

1. The CHART of December hourly prices updates.

2. It remains unclear if the assumed blue Wave C decline from the blue Wave b high is complete, or if the low shown is only the 3rd wave of the decline.

3. The only was we'll know for sure is if the thick pink horizontal line is taken out.

4. From the 55 hour low, the market rallied 4 hours and corrected 4 to yesterday's low.

5. If the blue Wave C low is complete, then the up-down sequence is likely a Wave 1 advance / Wave 2 correction in the direction of the new trend which emerged last month at the low shown in the middle of the CHART and whose initial thrust carried price up to the blue Wave 1 high (in other words, the trend is now believed to be up).

6. The descending blue upper pitchfork line, green down trendline and thin pink horizontal line are important resistance points the breaking of which today should signal that the market's in position to mount a pretty good advance.

UPDATED 20060720

COMMENT #246

CHART #s 492-493

(Posted noon Thursday, 20060720)

1. The CHART shows monthly prices and how this market was believed to have made an important high a couple of months ago.

2. The weekly CHART that follows ratified the monthly conclusion.

3. The market peaked a few days after this daily CHART was posted:

4. From the peak at the red WLC (Weekly Linear Time Cycle Index projected high from the April-September edition of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual") box in the upper left corner, today's CHART #492 of daily prices for the continuous spot futures contract shows that price declined sharply to the blue WIC (Weekly Inversion Cycle Index projected turn) box in the middle of the page and has since rallied to the next red box.

5. Although the next blue WIC box is also above price, suggesting that the projected turn will result in an important high, or has already produced the high shown in the CHART, it remains possible that this projected turn will align with the low.

6. The box is thus also presented in the light blue below price, but more as a reminder of the aforespecified possibility.

7. From the low, the market appears to have unfolded in the blue A-B-C movement shown (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

8. This corrective movement will be negated, of course, if the market makes a new high above the high shown this month in the CHART.

9. The blue text to the right shows how this A-B-C movement unfolded and the relationship of some of the waves.

10. Essentially, the market declined for 20 trading days and then has risen another 22 to the July high, 42 total (2 X FIBONACCI #21=42).

11. We can see that the advance has retraced about .618 of the decline and that the decline from this month's high retraced about .382 of the A-B-C advance.

12. The next CHART #493 shows hourly prices for the December contract from the July high.

13. The red diamonds mark what appears to be a 3-legged movement.

14. 3-legged movements are, of course, normally counter-trend / corrective movements.

15. So what the diamonds suggest is that an A-B-C counter-trend / corrective movement has occurred from the July high.

16. As the black text shows, this movement unfolded in a 2-4-6=12 hour decline where A+B=6=C.

17. The next CHART #494 of the December contract shows hourly prices for the overnight session.

18. Here we see the possibility that the decline is actually a 5 wave impulsive decline.

19. Since the blue Wave A high after the decline has already exceeded the blue Wave 1 low, we know that the low of the move is not a Wave 3 low (although the entirety of the decline still can be an A-B-C movement as seen in the #493 CHART).

20. The CHARTS in this COMMENT show the basic "Tops Down" approach where we start with a longer term perspective and then narrow the analysis down to smaller and smaller time segments.

21. Often, a market might be ignored until such time as the various factors come into alignment.

22. It's kinda like an eclipse.

23. The point of opportunity might only last for a little bit of time as things align.

24. The 5 wave impulsive decline is thus an important factor in this market as it suggests, if it is, in fact, present in the #494 CHART as shown, that the market from a very short perspective of only a few hours is aligned with the much slower moving forces of the daily, weekly and monthly CHARTS.

25. An example of how all this started at the top can be seen in the following CHARTS of 15 minute bars as the initial short positions were entered just after the high shown at the top of the page (which is the high shown in the monthly, weekly and daily CHARTS).

UPDATED 20060720

COMMENT #247

CHART #s 495-496

(Posted afternoon Thursday, 20060720)

1. We can use the same "Tops Down" approach in the following market.

2. We start with the long term CHART of monthly prices.

3. Here's the daily CHART.

4. In this CHART, it was noted that a few more days were left before the ideal formation of the right shoulder identified in the CHART by the green hat formed.

5. The hourly CHART, however, suggested that the market was ready to end the corrective process and form the right shoulder as shown in the CHART.

6. From that high, the market declined sharply as shown in todays CHART #495 for the December contract into the green and blue boxes shown at the bottom of the CHART before rallying into the red WLC (Weekly Linear Time Cycle Index) charts this month.

7. The hourly CHART #496 of the December contract shows how the decline has unfolded in the blue 5 wave impulsive sequence thus ratifying the longer term perspective seen in the monthly and daily CHARTS.