I hate war as only a soldier who has lived it can,
only as one who has seen its brutality,
its futility,
its stupidity.

--Dwight D. Eisenhower

UPDATED 20060721

COMMENT #248

CHART #497

1. CHART #497 of annual prices over the last couple of centuries or so speaks for itself.

UPDATED 20060721

COMMENT #249

CHART #s 498-500

1. CHART #498 is an update from a few days ago of daily prices for the cash index.

2. Price broke the horizontal pink line at the bottom of the CHART earlier this week, but the breakout seems to be a false one.

3. Yesterday, price made it up to the upper blue descending pitchfork line after finding support at the center blue fork but was unable to trade above the prior day's high.

4. There are three wide-bar days now since the June lows.

5. Those days are identified by the green vertical lines as was previously discussed for the first two.

6. Again, the 3rd one in the CHART of this week was followed by a narrow range yesterday.

7. But when we look at the volume information at the bottom of the page, we see that yesterday's decrease in price occurred on less volume.

8. This decrease is contrary to that of the experience of the first two such events.

9. It is possible that the market is forming the bearish head-and-shoulders top shown with 10 trading days on the left and the same to yesterday's price high, 20 total (FIBONACCI #=21).

10. CHART #499 is similar, but is believed to have formed the 1-2-1-2 blue/black sequence shown (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

11. Here we see price holding above the pink line at this month's July low, therby forming a bit of a breakout divergence between this and market in the #498 CHART (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

12. Hourly prices are shown in CHART #500 for the continuous spot futures contract.

13. We can see that the ability of price to hold above the June low is much more distinguishable here than in some of the prior CHARTS.

14. From the low, the market has advanced 8 hours and declined 8.

15. The ideal would see the market now rise above the black Wave a high but not break above the high in the CHART.

UPDATED 20060721

COMMENT #250

CHART #s 501-504

1. CHART #501 shows daily prices for the cash index.

2. We can see how price is holding both above the low of late last year and above the June low.

3. CHART #502 shows various futures contracts.

4. In the upper left corner, we can see how the continuous spot futures contract broke the June low by moving below the red horizontal trendline.

5. But the green letters show that this decline occurred at the date indicated.

6. We can see, also, how the September and December contracts have also broken before the June lows.

7. The March contract in the lower right corner, and other deferred contracts, have not broken the June low, however, thereby forming various intramarket price divergences between the various contracts and between the various contracts and the cash index (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

8. When we inspect the hourly contract for the continuous spot futures contract in CHART #503, we can see that the reason for the break of the green line is due (apparently) one trade at the end of the day of the event identified in the #502 CHART.

9. With this background, let's now update the hourly CHART of December prices in CHART #504.

10. From the blue Wave 1 high, the movement appears to have unfolded in the blue a-b-c shown (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

11. This decline appears to have unfolded over 24-7-20=51 hours with various FIBONACCI segments identified in the CHART.

12. Since the initial blue Wave 1 advance lasted 17 hour (1/2 FIBONACCI #34=17) and the decline 51, blue W2 / blue W1 = 51/17 = 3.000.

13. The total movement from the June low to the July low thus has lasted 17+51=68 hours so that total / W1 = 68/17 = 4.000.

14. The red numbers below the blue a and c waves identify the price decline for each of the downlegs and for the total decline of the blue Wave 2.

15. The green arrows and number to the right of the black bracket show that these three relationships are in ratio of 1.679, 1.299 and 1.292 (PHI = 1.618 & SQ PHI = 1.272).

16. Whereas prior discussions of this CHART were unable to identify the completion of 5 impulsive waves comprising the blue Wave c decline, the CHART shows that 5 are now possible and, even, likely.

17. At the bottom of the CHART, we can see how such momentum oscillators as RSI and Slow Stochastics are failing to confirm the new low, thereby forming important price / momentum oscillator divergences and enhancing those identified above (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

18. We can see the minor price break at the horizontal green line.

19. But we can also see, above, that this price break seems to be due to the single trade (assuming the data is accurate) and that the trade, even if accurate, is not confirmed in the cash market or the deferred futures contract.

20. Hence, in this situation, the blue Wave 1 advance / blue Wave 2 decline remains in effect and the market is expected to set an important low and begin a blue Wave 3 advance that should carry price above the blue Wave 1 high.

UPDATED 20060721

COMMENT #251

CHART #505

1. The following market was seen, since the end of last year, as being the key to the rest of the complex.

2. The sharp rally shown earlier this year wound up ending, to date, as this CHART of weekly prices was posted.

3. At the same time, the "Tops Down" analysis showed how daily prices also suggested an important top.

4. This daily interpretation was then carried down to the 15 minute bar CHART.

5. Today's CHART #505 of daily prices for the continuous spot futures contract shows how price declined sharply into the blue and green boxes at the bottom of the CHART.

6. From these boxes, price then rallied to this month's high.

7. The decline / advance has lasted 22+19=41 trading days (2 X FIBONACCI #21=42).

8. The pink horizontal trendline shows where the trading technique presented on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" provided another sell short signal.

9. The market yesterday just broke the red up trendline shown in the CHART.

10. Price is believed headed lower and should eventually approach the lower blue descending pitchfork line.

UPDATED 20060721

COMMENT #252

CHART #506

1. Near the end of last year, the following bearish and bullish interpretations of weekly prices were presented.

2. CHART #506 updates the bullish interpretation.

3. We can see that price has broken the horizontal trendline shown in the CHART and that it has also broken the lower up ascending trendline of the ascending diagonal triangle identified by the red lines.

4. The small sloping red lines show the price / momentum oscillator divergence that occurred at the top as the final high formed through the first few months of this year.

5. CHART #507 is actually of greater importance from a trendline perspective, however.

6. Here we see that the thick red ascending trendline shown in the CHART is a multi-year trendline that has just recently been broken.