JULY COMMENTS
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Comment numbers for 20060726 257
GENERAL COMMENTS
"It would indeed be ironic if,
in the name of national defense,
we would sanction the subversion of one of the liberties . . .
which makes the defense of the Nation worthwhile."
- United States v. Robel, 389 US 258, 264 (1967)
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1. We always want to be aware of those projected turning points on page 368 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition".
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CURRENT COMMENTS
You've got to rattle your cage door. UPDATED 20060726
COMMENT #257
CHART #518
1. A monthly CHART of the following market was posted at the beginning of the year here:
2. A weekly CHART was posted at the recent low.
3. A minor new low was made here in the continuous spot futures contract:
4. From that low, the market was believed to be in bullish position here as noted by the black Wave 1-2 sequence of 8 & 24 calendar days (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
5. One question that was unresolved at the time was the light blue MIC box (Monthly Inversion Cycle Index) in the lower right corner.
6. As the July low in that CHART was not below the June low, the projected turn of monthly Degree of Trading actually aligned better with either the June low or June high than with the July low even though the July low was seen as of especial significance in that it occurred at the .618 retracement level and set the black Wave 2 low of the Elliott Wave sequence.
7. Today's CHART #518 of daily prices for the continuous spot futures contract updates.
8. The black Wave 1-2 sequence remains.
9. The normal extension of the black Wave 2 low is that the up-down movement shown for formed the blue Wave 1 advance / blue Wave 2 correction shown.
10. This means that these movements are part of a black Wave 3 advance that began at the black Wave 2 low and that the blue numbers identify the first sequence of that black Wave 3 movement.
11. This interpretation is consistent with prior discussion.
12. However, at the bottom of the CHART, we see, in the red lines, that from the June low, the up-down-up movement to the 613 high, 707 low and 719 high has unfolded in 8-24-12 calendar days, 44 total.
13. This measurement is important because of how it relates to the two segments identified at the top of the CHART by the red lines.
14. Here we see a 44 and 88 calendar day segment (FIBONACCI #=89 and ½ FIBONACCI #89=44.5).
15. Hence, the entirety of the movement from the January low to the March high to the June low to the July high is 44-88-44 calendar days.
16. What all this means is that there exists a possibility that the 605 low to 719 high movement is, instead of the bullish black and blue 1-2-1-2 sequence shown, actually an A-B-C corrective sequence.
17. This sequence is shown in the black framed box in the upper right corner with the pink shading.
18. It suggests the possibility that the decline to the June low is a very bearish Wave 1 decline and that the correction to the 719 high is a black Wave 2 high.
19. From the 719 high, under this bearish interpretation, the market has then unfolded, as seen in the pink box, in a 2 trading day decline to a blue Wave 1 low and has since corrected 2 more trading days to yesterday's Wave 2 high.
20. This would put the market in position to trigger the trading technique presented on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" and provide short entry today (the 26th).
21. This is not the expected outcome.
22. Nevertheless, we can see that the market appears that it is about to break out of its sideways lethargy of the last few months and enter a trending mode.
23. The breakout is expected to be in an upward direction.
24. One needs to note that, if the Alternative (bearish) scenario prevails, the market will have seen a 50 percent retracement of the March - June decline (see the red horizontal dotted line) and the light blue MIC box in the lower right corner will be moved above the 719 high as it will have marked the black Wave 2 high in this market.
25. A third alternative does exist which sees the blue Wave 2 low a couple of days ago as only being Wave A of 2.
26. If such is the case, yesterday's high would likely be Wave B of 2.
27. This would mean that the market would see a couple of days of decline that would, more than likely, carry the market below the blue Wave 2 low, but not below the black Wave 2 low of 707.
28. The thick horizontal pink line has thus been drawn from the 707 low to emphasize its importance.
29. So long as price remains above that line, the assumption should be that the market is in bullish position to move higher which remains the favored interpretation of this market at the time.
30. Because of the current structure of this market, and because of its importance to the rest of the complex, and to other markets, this post is being made early to assure, as best possible, that the information is timely received and considered.
2. We always want to be aware of those "Inversion Cycle Indexes" in the weekly pages of the April through September edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" which is available in an easy-to-use electronic format. A sample of the format for the charting file may be seen in the NOTICE posted here. Ordering information here!
3. The initial issue of the free "Trading on the Edge" E-Zine was released 20001021. Archived copies are available here. Subscription information here.
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You've got to let them know that you're in there,
and that you want out.
Make noise. Cause trouble.
You may not win right away,
but you'll sure have a lot more fun.
--Florynce Kennedy
