JULY COMMENTS
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Comment numbers for 20060731 267 268
GENERAL COMMENTS
"It would indeed be ironic if,
in the name of national defense,
we would sanction the subversion of one of the liberties . . .
which makes the defense of the Nation worthwhile."
- United States v. Robel, 389 US 258, 264 (1967)
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1. We always want to be aware of those projected turning points on page 376 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".
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CURRENT COMMENTS
Talent ... is most likely to be found among UPDATED 20060731
COMMENT #267
CHART #530
(Post-close)
1. CHART #530 shows weekly prices over the last several years.
2. The black line in the bottom box shows small speculative positions while the red shows net commercial positions.
3. Values above the black horizontal dotted line indicate net long positions while those below indicate net short positions.
4. (A net long position, for example, would be one in which small specs were long 100,000 contracts and short 70,000 contracts leaving a net long position of +30,000 contracts).
5. We can see that commercials are very short this market while small specs have been the primary buyers over the last several weeks.
6. Commercial interests are purported to be the "smart" money and small specs the "dumb" money.
7. Hence, the widening of the spread between the two to the widest levels of the period shown is believed to be a very ominous development for this market and the complex.
8. The readings are as of last Tuesday with the report as of Friday.
UPDATED 20060731
COMMENT #268
CHART #531
(Post-close)
1. CHART #531 shows daily prices for the continuous spot futures contract.
2. The information shown is similar to that in the previous COMMENT and CHART.
3. Here we see, since the expiration of the June contracts, options and price low, that it has been the small speculator that has been buying the dips and price advance while the smart money commercials have been adding to net short positions.
4. This development is consistent with that of the prior COMMENT and CHART.
2. We always want to be aware of those "Inversion Cycle Indexes" in the weekly pages of the April through September edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" which is available in an easy-to-use electronic format. A sample of the format for the charting file may be seen in the NOTICE posted here. Ordering information here!
3. The initial issue of the free "Trading on the Edge" E-Zine was released 20001021. Archived copies are available here. Subscription information here.
4. NOTICE of refund and cancellation polices may be accessed here.
non-conformists, dissenters, and rebels.
--David Olgilvy
