AUGUST COMMENTS
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Comment numbers for 20060815 290 291
GENERAL COMMENTS
"It would indeed be ironic if,
in the name of national defense,
we would sanction the subversion of one of the liberties . . .
which makes the defense of the Nation worthwhile."
- United States v. Robel, 389 US 258, 264 (1967)
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1. We always want to be aware of those projected turning points on page 376 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".
5. Click here to access our new charting service!
CURRENT COMMENTS
No matter that patriotism is too often the refuge of scoundrels. UPDATED 20060815
COMMENT #290
CHART #589
1. CHART #589 of daily prices updates the following CHART from a few days ago.
2. We can see that the horizontal pink line remains at the July high and remains unbroken.
3. The assumption thus remains that the July high ended a corrective advance of the May-June decline.
4. From the July high, the 5 wave impulsive sequence shown in today's CHART is consistent with the much more important colored boxes shown in the first CHART.
5. Price has found support at the red up trendline shown and at the grey box marking the late July up gap, but the support is expected to be temporary and to be broken.
6. Should this support be broken, the blue Wave 1 low should shortly thereafter fail followed by a break of the June low.
7. At the bottom of the CHART, we can see that the net commercial position is at the most negative level of the last 6 months and is even more negative than at the May high.
8. At the top of the CHART, the red lines show that the 32-55=86 calendar day segmentation (FIBONACCI #s=34, 55 & 89) show that the two identified segments are in approximate PHI proportions.
9. From the blue Wave 1 low and impulsive sequence shown to the downside, the blue A-B-C, though a minor adjustment from the recent CHART, consists of overlaps (the blue Wave B low is lower than the blue Wave A high) suggesting the counter-trend / corrective nature of the blue A-B-C advance.
10. Such movements, being counter-trend in nature, ratify the trend implications of the impulsive July decline to the blue Wave 1 low in that both the blue Wave 1 decline, being impulsive, and blue Wave 2 advance, being corrective, suggest that each is a component of the emergent downtrend.
11. When we analyze the black Wave 2 day last Thursday, we see that the page 205-9 trading technique presented in "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" entered short this day.
12. Close examination also shows that early in the day, the previous day's intraday high was exceeded, thus resulting in an outside-day with a down close.
13. Such trading techniques are pattern-based and, thus, rather than being formula-based, are reflective of market action.
14. The idea is that once a setup is identified, the market is required to act in the expected manner and force entry into the expected position.
15. In the example, the expectation is for a resumption of the downtrend.
16. The reality of the situation is that we actually have no idea as to whether or not the expected outcome will occur.
17. The only thing we can do is put the orders in and then go milk the cows.
18. The market will do what the market will do.
19. There's no use fretting about it.
20. Our job is to learn how to identify the highly-probable setups and to then put the orders in.
21. It's absolutely irrelevant whether or not this one particular situation works out, or doesn't.
22. Some will, some won't.
23. When they don't, a small loss is incurred.
24. When they do, some will have some pretty large gains.
25. Most will just have some nice gains.
UPDATED 20060815
COMMENT #291
CHART #590
(Posted noon Tuesday, 20060815)
1. CHART #590 shows hourly prices for the September contract.
2. The assumption in this scenario is, essentially, the third alternative discussed previously which sees a blue Wave i decline to the low shown in the CHART and the black A-B-C corrective / counter-trend rally to today's high.
3. The blue Wave ii high suggests that the A-B-C counter-trend rally is complete.
4. If so, Wave A measured 146 ticks (FIBONACCI #=144), Wave C 135 ticks and the blue Wave ii advance 168 ticks (SQ FIBONACCI #13=169).
5. This places the blue Wave ii rise in 1.244 ratio versus the black Wave C advance (SQ RT PHI=1.272).
6. The two red sloping trendlines show that such momentum oscillators as RSI and Slow Stochastics are failing to confirm the new highs, thereby forming important price / momentum oscillator divergences (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
7. The blue Wave i-ii movement thus lasted 45-13=58 hours with 16-4-6-3=29 up and 6-11-8-4=29 hours down (up=29=down = equality).
8. It would be very bearish were this market, and the complex, to spend the rest of the day in a selloff.
9. Should such an event occur, the implication would be that the blue Wave i low / Wave ii high movement shown in the CHART is complete.
2. We always want to be aware of those "Inversion Cycle Indexes" in the weekly pages of the April through September edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" which is available in an easy-to-use electronic format. A sample of the format for the charting file may be seen in the NOTICE posted here. Ordering information here!
3. The initial issue of the free "Trading on the Edge" E-Zine was released 20001021. Archived copies are available here. Subscription information here.
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Dissent, rebellion, and all-around hell-raising remain
the true duty of patriots.
--Barbara Ehrenreich
