AUGUST COMMENTS
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Comment numbers for 20060822 302 303 304
GENERAL COMMENTS
"It would indeed be ironic if,
in the name of national defense,
we would sanction the subversion of one of the liberties . . .
which makes the defense of the Nation worthwhile."
- United States v. Robel, 389 US 258, 264 (1967)
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1. We always want to be aware of those projected turning points on page 376 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".
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CURRENT COMMENTS
"The whole aim of practical politics UPDATED 20060822
COMMENT #302
(Posted afternoon 20060822)
1. The reason for the importance of the 822 date this year is not because of the Islamic calendar, but the Persian calendar.
2. Today is Seshhanbqh:31 and ends Mordad, 1385.
3. Tomorrow is Chaharshanbeh:1 and begins Shahrivar, 1385.
UPDATED 20060822
COMMENT #303
CHART #605
1. CHART #605 shows daily prices for the continuous spot futures price.
2. It continues the discussion of weekly prices and the black Wave 1 low, a-b-c correction and black Wave 2 high in this CHART (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
3. We can see that the 29 week advance to the blue Wave B high on 605 shown in the weekly CHART has not been broken.
4. Such is the case also in the cash and September spot futures contract.
5. Yesterday, price took out the 804 high.
6. We can see in the CHART #605 how price traded up to the upper ascending red diagonal triangle trendline.
7. The movement has been labeled with the black A-B-C-D-E lettering because of the 17-8-12-6-5=48 trading day breakdown of the movement.
8. Here we see, as noted in the black box, that WA=17=WC + WE (1/2 FIBONACCI #34=17).
9. In other words, 34 up and 14 down days in the 48 trading day movement.
10. Hence, from the blue Wave B high, the black Wave 1 decline and black Wave 2 rally lasted 6 + 48 = 54 trading days (FIBONACCI #=55) making today the 55th.
11. The vertical red and green lines are those shown in yesterday's weekly CHART and mark the troughs in the net short commercial position.
12. As can be seen in the middle box, yesterday's new high for the last couple of months was not confirmed by such momentum oscillators as RSI and Slow Stochastics (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
13. This nonconfirmation has resulted in an important price / momentum oscillator divergence as noted by the short red down sloping trendline shown in the middle box.
14. Yesterday's move to a new high for the last couple of months thus looks like a wrong-way, false breakout engineered by floor traders and commercial interests to elect public buy stops just prior to reversing prices and slamming the market.
15. The information shown is thus consistent with yesterday's discussion and should be applied to other markets in the complex, too.
UPDATED 20060822
COMMENT #304
CHART #606
1. CHART #606 shows daily prices for the continuous spot futures contract.
2. The three blue boxes show the WICs (Weekly Inversion Cycle Index) projected turns for the period shown for this contract from the April - September edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".
3. Since we are at the next projected turn, and since price has been moving up into the projected turn, the expectation is that the turn will result in an important high.
4. We thus want to apply the ascending diagonal triangle in the prior CHART to this market in an effort to explain the reason an important top might be expected now.
5. At the top of the CHART, we can see that the market declined 40 calendar days and rallied 65 (FIBONACCI #s 5 X 8 = 40 and FIBONACCI #s 5 X 13 = 65), 105 total (FIBONACCI #s 5 X 21 = 105).
6. As can be seen by the green numbers and arrows in the CHART, these measurements are in approximate PHI relationship.
7. Yesterday, the market formed in important inside trading day (where the high is lower than Friday's and the low is higher than Friday's).
8. Today, the market opened and traded up.
9. A break of yesterday's intraday low should thus be considered important to this market.
10. Also, we have discussed many times in these COMMENTS the concept of applying the trading technique presented on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" to intraday prices by treating the early morning trading range as a completed day and entering a position (in this case, a short position) on a break of that early morning trading range.
11. Such trading tactics are applicable to this market today and to the rest of the complex.
12. The risk is minuscule if wrong, and the downside potential enormous.
2. We always want to be aware of those "Inversion Cycle Indexes" in the weekly pages of the April through September edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" which is available in an easy-to-use electronic format. A sample of the format for the charting file may be seen in the NOTICE posted here. Ordering information here!
3. The initial issue of the free "Trading on the Edge" E-Zine was released 20001021. Archived copies are available here. Subscription information here.
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is to keep the populace alarmed
by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins
all of them imaginary."
--H. L. Mencken
