Expect nothing, live frugally on surprise.

--Alice Walker

UPDATED 20060911

COMMENT #316

CHART #s 635-636

1. CHART #635 updates prices for the cash index.

2. Friday's close has unfortunately not been updated as of this review, however.

3. The down red arrows and yellow highlighting in the upper left corner of the CHART show the last "cluster" of Astro turning point projections from "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition".

4. The next "cluster" of such points is identified in the lower right corner by the red arrows and yellow highlighting from "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

5. Most of the lines are continuations of recent discussion.

6. The decline from the high in the upper left corner to the June low is the blue Wave C downleg of the red Wave B corrective movement of the last 7 months.

7. It is important that the cash index June low held above the May low as shown in the CHART and also held the thick green ascending trendline shown.

8. Note that this ascending green trendline has continued to hold many attempts to take it out since in the face of extremely bearish news.

9. The inability of this market to crash that green line in the face of repeatedly bad fundamental news has formed a bit of a price / news divergence (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

10. An Elliott Wave interpretation from the June low is marked in the CHART by the blue Wave 1 high and Wave 2 low (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

11. However, the pattern shown is not very convincing.

12. Of greater importance is how the pattern has made important turns at the Astro turning points marked by the red up and down arrows and the other Astro information noted in the CHART.

13. Also of importance to this market is the 26 calendar day cycle identified above price by the red lines that has developed since the red Wave [B] low in June.

14. The emergence of this cycle since that low suggests that the market has entered a new phase.

15. This new phase is believed to be a red Wave [C] advance that should unfold in impulsive manner eventually taking out the thick horizontal pink line above the July high, the blue Wave B high in the upper left corner, and the high of 2004.

16. The important aspect of the CHART the last few days are the three attempts to reassert the downtrend at the three green arrows shown.

17. What happened on each of these three days is that price was much higher during the day, but was "slammed" into the close.

18. However, as can be seen, the terrible looking daily price action was not followed through.

19. The light blue shaded horizontal box identified the upper price level of these "slam" days.

20. As can be seen, on Thursday, price gapped above Wednesday's "slam" day.

21. Wednesday further took out the late August high identified by the thin pink horizontal line.

22. Then, on Friday, price followed through by taking out the August high.

23. Caution is signaled by the event with the black down arrow identified in the CHART to the very right.

24. The market is attempting to follow through to the upside.

25. CHART #636 shows daily prices for the continuous spot futures contract with prices updated through Friday's close.

26. We can see how price moved through the July low marked by the horizontal pink line which should signal that the low marked by that line is not Wave 1 of an impulsive decline.

27. As a result of Friday's close, the market is believed to have set the black Wave 1 high and Wave 2 low shown in the CHART and within the triangle marked by the green ascending and black descending lines.

28. A larger cycle is seen by the continuation of the 44 calendar day periodicity market in the CHART by the red lines above price (1/2 FIBONACCI #89=44.5).

29. The last rep of this cycle appears to have marked the black Wave 2 low as shown in the CHART.

30. It is also important that the net commercial position continues to support this market as seen by the red line in the bottom chart.

31. The expectation is that the breakout shown is not a false one.

32. However, sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish in this market, and the trend will not be seen to have emerged until price has traded above the July high shown.

33. At this time, that breakout is still expected to occur.

34. Higher prices are thus still favored.

UPDATED 20060911

COMMENT #317

CHART #637

1. CHART #637 updates daily prices for the continuous spot futures contract.

2. The May high was expected to have completed a very important corrective advance as shown in the following CHART at the time of the high:

3. This market made a new high last month after receiving fundamentally bullish news that a foreign country was going to buy this market.

4. But the new high attained on the news has not been able to follow through.

5. Recently, we had discussed how it would be normal to see the low shown at the 818 low to align with the green WLC (Weekly Linear Time Cycle Index projected low) and WIC (Weekly Inversion Cycle Index projected turn) on 818 and to then finish the up move by advancing into the red MLC (Monthly Linear Time Cycle Index projected high) marked in the CHART by the red box in the upper right corner.

6. These cyclic projections are from the April-September edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".

7. Since the low occurred on time, and the advance from the 818 low unfolded in the blue A-B-C corrective manner shown, we assume that the decline / advance has formed the blue Wave 1 decline / Wave 2 advance shown.

8. The 5 blue boxes from the 808 high to 818 low shown in the CHART identify the decline as having unfolded in impulsive manner.

9. Since impulsive movement supposedly define trend, and corrective movement counter-trend, both the impulsive and corrective movements are suggesting that trend has now switched to the downside.

10. The ability of price to knife through the thick green ascending trendline is consistent with this labeling.

11. We can see how this market peaked at the blue Wave 2 retest amidst the "cluster" of Astro point projected turns from page 376 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

12. At the bottom of the CHART, we can see that the red line signals that the net commercial position moved to a new recent bearish level well below the "0" (zero) line which is marked in the bottom chart by the grey dotted line.

13. In the middle box / chart, we can see how such momentum oscillators as RSI and Slow Stochastics did not confirm the new high in price on 808, thereby forming a price / momentum oscillator divergence (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

14. This is normal that the divergence should occur at the high and not at the retest of the high at the end of the month.

15. The importance of this CHART is that it suggests that the expectation in the prior CHART is the most probable outcome.

16. In other words, it ratifies the other market in the complex which is what we want to see various markets in a complex do as important moves begin to emerge.

UPDATED 20060911

COMMENT #318

CHART #s 638-641

1. CHART #638 updates weekly prices.

2. The question posed a few weeks ago was with relation to a single market in the complex which was approaching a WIC (Weekly Inversion Cycle Index projected turn) marked in the CHART by the blue box above price just as the net commercial position had turned extremely negative.

3. The trading technique was in place to trigger a sell short signal.

4. The November low was believed to be an important price level which, if decisively broken, would, presumably, provide an important roadmark should an important price advance truly be underway.

5. The sell signal was not triggered and price continued higher in the key market reviewed and elsewhere in the complex.

6. Today's weekly CHART shows that price has just barely peeked above the pink horizontal trendline drawn off the November low.

7. At the same time, we can see that the market has also traded above the green down channel marked by the thick descending trendline below price and the thin descending trendline above.

8. A new descending trendline has also been added which is a thick down trendline drawn off the 2005 and 2006 highs shown.

9. We can see that this high of this month shown in the CHART is a very important price level for this market.

10. In the bottom box, we can also see that, as price has advanced over the last few weeks, commercials have rapidly been reducing their net record long position marked in the CHART by the red line.

11. Again, the grey dotted line is the "0" (zero) line or line at which the net position is neither long nor short.

12. For this market, we also want to investigate weekly prices from an inverted perspective.

13. In this CHART #639, we note that the decline from the 2000 high to the 2003 low lasted 178 weeks (2 X FIBONACCI #89=178).

14. From this low, the market rallied 47 weeks and then declined 55 (LUCAS #=47, FIBONACCI #=55).

15. The green horizontal line shows how price held above the 2003 low in this CHART.

16. From this low, the market advanced 22, 14 & 13 weeks to the May high shown (FIBONACCI #s= 13 & 21).

17. This advance over 49 total weeks retraced, as can be seen in the CHART at the red horizontal dotted line, about .786 of the 55 week decline (1/SQ RT PHI=.786).

18. We can see that the ensuing decline to the pink horizontal line at last November's high has taken price back down to the lower green ascending channel trendline and the lower blue ascending pitchfork line.

19. A very interesting point occurs in the future in this market that is marked in the upper right corner of the CHART by the black date of Friday, 1117.

20. At this point, the market will be 27 weeks from the May high (1/2 FIBONACCI #55=27.5).

21. The 27 week segment will be equal to the 14 week decline and 13 week advance to the May high and will be 54 weekly from the 22 week high of last November.

22. At such time, the market will be 76 weeks from the 55 week low of 2005 shown in the CHART (LUCAS #=76).

23. Since the advance from the 2003 low lasted 47 weeks, the 76 week segment will be in PHI proportion to the 47 week advance since 47 & 76 are successive LUCAS #s.

24. Hence, at such time, the market will be in a 47-55-76=178 week position (again, 2 X FIBONACCI #89=178, LUCAS #s=47 & 76 and FIBONACCI #=55).

25. There will thus be 47+76=123 up and 55 down weeks if the market is able to set an important low here and advance into mid-November.

26. CHART #640 shows daily prices.

27. Here we see how important the descending blue pitchfork and red descending channel are right now to this market as price attains the pink horizontal line shown at last November's high.

28. CHART #641 updates this information from prior discussion for the continuous spot futures price (daily prices).

29. We can see that, in the futures market, price has just barely attained the pink horizontal line.

30. But look at what's in the very upper right corner of the CHART (blue and red boxes).

31. When we look at the net commercial position shown by the red line in the bottom chart, we can see that the net commercial position is approaching levels seen at the beginning of the year as price was peaking.

32. When we examine the price action of the last few days, we can see that this market is set up for short side entry today via the trading technique presented on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual".

33. This situation is similar to that shown a few weeks ago and at the beginning of this COMMENT.

34. We would like for price to continue to advance above the 901 high without reversing to the downside just as it did a couple of weeks ago.

35. We can see that the red ascending trendline shown below price has held for many weeks now.

36. Such momentum oscillators as RSI and Slow Stochastics are confirming the new high shown in the CHART as seen by the two green short sloping lines.

37. Obviously, as can be seen, we are at an important point in this complex.

38. Let's thus see how other markets in the complex look.

UPDATED 20060911

COMMENT #319

CHART #s 642 & 642

1. CHART #642 shows inverted prices for the advance of the last couple of years or so.

2. We had earlier discussed the importance of the movement since January of this year.

3. That date is shown in the middle of the CHART #642 below price.

4. The red lines above price show that it was 157 trading days to this date from the 2005 low and has then been another 158 to the 901 low (equality).

5. The red lines below price show that the latter 158 trading day segment further divides into the two 79 trading day segments shown.

6. Further, from the 2005 low and January, 2006 low, the market advanced to the important highs of last November and June of this year in 108 and 110 trading days (2 X FIBONACCI #55=110) as shown in the CHART.

7. These advances were then followed by two approximately equal declines of 49 & 48 trading days as marked below price at the 118 and 901 lows by the red numbers.

8. One of the important items of concern in this complex has been the November turn.

9. That turn is shown in the above CHART by the horizontal pink line drawn off the November high.

10. But note that, in this market, price has not attained that high.

11. Hence, an important divergence exists with the market in the prior COMMENT and will continue to exist until that line is broken (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

12. Now look at the thick green ascending trendline.

13. That equivalent line is nowhere close in the prior COMMENT, but is right at the 901 low in the #642 CHART.

14. CHART #643 updates the continuous spot futures contract for this market.

15. Remember that this CHART will be inverted from the #642 CHART.

16. First, we can see how price has been laying right on that thick green ascending trendline.

17. This CHART also adds the Astro turning point projected dates from "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition" at the red up and down arrows.

18. Note the "cluster" to the right.

19. The decline to the November low / advance to the 118 high is shown in the black box in the upper left corner as having required 65+75=140 calendar days (see the blue shading).

20. FIBONACCI #=144.

21. From the 118 high, the decline to the 628 low lasted 161 calendar days (100 X PHI=161.8) with another 65 to the 901 high, 226 total (see the black box and blue shading to the right).

22. 140 + 226 = 366 calendar days total (FIBONACCI #s = 233 & 377).

23. Hence, these two segments are in proportion of 226 / 140 = 1.614 (PHI=1.618).

24. We can see by the short green trendlines that such momentum oscillators as RSI and Slow Stochastics are not diverging with price in this market, either.

25. But the bottom box has shown that commercial support for this market has absolutely collapsed over the last couple of months and moved well below the "0" (zero) grey dotted line shown in the bottom chart.

26. At the top of the CHART, the green horizontal thick arrow pointing to the right shows the up trend projection from the April - September edition of "The $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".

27. We can see that his arrow is nearing an end and that price has generally trended higher during the time frame identified by the arrow.

28. The expectation is thus that we want to pay attention to the end of the projected uptrend.

UPDATED 20060911

COMMENT #320

CHART #644 (See also COMMENT #329 & CHART #654)

1. CHART #644 shows daily prices for the continuous spot futures price.

2. From the June high last year, we can see that the assumption is that this market has declined in the blue a-b-c-x-a-b-c movement shown (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

3. The second blue Wave c decline, in turn, unfolded in three declines identified by the three red numbers below price.

4. If the first segment is seen as measuring 1.000, the second down segment is .786 of the first and the third down segment is .618 of the first.

5. From the 628 low, price has advanced up to the red and blue boxes shown and retraced 50 percent of the second blue Wave c decline as seen by the red horizontal dotted line marked in the CHART.

6. Again, we see the green up trendline.

7. The black box above price shows the 1 year anniversary of the blue Wave X high.

8. (continued in COMMENT #329 - sorry for the confusion)

UPDATED 20060911

COMMENT #321

CHART #645

1. CHART #645 shows daily prices for the continuous spot futures price.

2. Here, again, we can see that this market is well below the November low which is identified in the CHART by the horizontal pink line.

3. The green circle in the lower right corner identifies an anomaly in the complex.

4. Here we see that the net commercial position increased significantly last month after price had already risen off its lows from the green and blue boxes shown.

5. An Elliott Wave interpretation is presented which assumes that the advance began with the red Wave 1-2 sequence shown.

6. If this is correct, what is suggested is that the market just completed a red Wave 3 high at the 901 high.

7. This market too, however, is also set up for short side entry today via the trading technique presented on pages 205-9.

8. We will use this technique to exit long positions in the complex.

9. If not executed, we will use the green ascending trendlines to exit positions and will hopefully see the latter three markets able to follow the leader above the pink horizontal lines at the November turns of last year.

UPDATED 20060911

COMMENT #322

CHART #646

1. Last month, we were studying how price had formed a series of lower highs on the weekly CHART.

2. Today's CHART #646 of daily prices for the December contract shows similar weakness which is identified in the CHART by the lower red caps.

3. We had discussed how the market appeared to have formed an extremely weak red Wave II high at the 802 top shown in the CHART.

4. From that high, the market was then seen to have declined in the blue Elliott Wave impulsive sequence shown to the 818 low (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual") as was seen here.

5. The market was setting a temporary bottom at the 829 Astro turning point date and WIC and WLC projected low and turn as seen here.

6. Today's CHART #646 appears to have set the corrective movement shown in the CHART by the red A-B-C movement to the red Wave 2 high.

7. If this all is correct, the point at which the red Wave 2 high was set (which was well below the July high) again leaves the market in extremely weak position and is consistent with the red Wave c high of Wave II in early August also being unable to trade above the July high.

8. If all this is correct, last week's high will likely market the MIC and MLC projected turn and high for the month of September shown in the upper right corner by the blue and red boxes in CHART #647.

UPDATED 20060911

COMMENT #323

CHART #648

1. CHART #648 updates daily prices for the December contract.

2. This market has seen strength that others in the complex have not.

3. The strength has taken the market up to the upper up channel green trendline shown.

4. This high has occurred at the red and blue boxes in the upper right corner and at the red down Astro turning point projections marked above the boxes by the red down arrows.

5. We can see that the decline / advance shown in the CHART is measured by the red lines at the very top which show 22 down and 57 up days (FIBONACCI #s=21 & 55) placing the two segments in a ratio of 2.591 (SQ PHI = 2.618).

6. The red horizontal dotted line shows that price has advanced back up to the .618 retracement level (see pages 285-7 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

7. The advance shown appears, now, to have unfolded in the red A-B-C corrective movement shown (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

8. The A & C legs, as shown by the green numbers, measure 217 & 272 ticks placing these two legs in ratio of 1.253 (SQ RT PHI=1.272).

9. The red Wave C advance is believed to have unfolded as marked by the 5 black numbers from the 718 low to 905 high.

10. This red Wave C advance, as shown by the black arrow pointing to the left in the lower right corner, has lasted 34 trading days (FIBONACCI #=34).

11. The red Waves B + C = 55 calendar days (FIBONACCI #=55) as is also shown in the lower right corner.

12. What is suggested is that this market, strongest in the complex of late, has but moved up from the blue and green boxes at the bottom of the CHART to the red and blue boxes in the upper right corner.

UPDATED 20060911

COMMENT #324

CHART #649

1. CHART #649 shows daily prices for the last contracts this year (mostly December) for the markets shown.

2. In the upper left corner, we can see how, from the initial thrust down to the June low, this market has risen to form the head-and-shoulders top formation shown on the retest of the May high.

3. This is an important development for this complex as this was the market we identified late last year as providing insight as to the rest of the complex because of a large short position purportedly of Chinese origin.

4. The final high in May as shown at the high in the following two CHARTs was thus instrumental to the rest of the complex:

5. The head-and-shoulders top shown is also expected to be an important event for this complex.

6. We can see that each of the shoulders is separated from the head by 20 trading days (FIBONACCI #=21).

7. In today's #647 CHART, we had seen how the red down trendline above price had just barely been breached last week.

8. However, note in today's CHART #649 CHART in the upper left corner that the December contract was well below this same down trendline at last week's high.

9. The chart in the lower right corner shows the basic Elliott Wave pattern that is prevalent in the complex over the last few months.

10. Here we see a very complex red Wave B decline, a very weak and short red Wave C advance, and a very complex red A-B-C counter-trend, corrective advance from the June low.

11. The red Wave C false breakout should be very telling for this market and shows how little horsepower the long traders were able to muster in support of price.

UPDATED 20060911

COMMENT #325

CHART #650

1. CHART #650 shows hourly prices for the December contract.

2. The 5 blue numbers in the 19 hour decline shown suggest that the movement unfolded in a trend-defining, impulsive sequence (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

3. Prices are through Friday's close.

4. From the low, the market appears to have completed a 6 hour counter-trend a-b-c advance to the .618 price retracement level.

5. The hourly CHART is supporting the page 205-9 trading technique short sale on the daily CHARTS throughout the complex.

UPDATED 20060911

COMMENT #326

CHART #651

1. At the May high in this complex, we discussed the importance of following the underlying stock market indexes.

2. We had believed that a head-and-shoulders top formation was either forming, or had formed, here:

3. CHART #651 is an update of daily prices.

4. The advance from the June low is shown as the basic red A-B-C advance seen in other markets in the complex (see above discussions of prior COMMENTS today).

5. The overall head-and-shoulders topping formation remains, though modified a bit by the additional 56 calendar days shown from the red Wave A high to the red Wave C high (FIBONACCI #=55).

6. Note that it has taken 8 months or so for this pattern to form.

7. The huge length of time suggests that this market is going down for quite some time.

8. It is extremely significant that price peeked above the July high, but was quickly turned back.

9. This, coupled with the inability of the market to attain the pink horizontal dashed line drawn off the left shoulder high seemingly places this market in extremely weak hands and position.

10. At the bottom, we can see that the high last week occurred at the next rep of the 20 trading day periodicity shown at the bottom of the CHART by the red lines.

11. From the head, the decline / advance lasted 33 & 85 calendar days as shown at the bottom by the light blue shading (FIBONACCI #s=34 & 89).

12. The two movements are in a 2.576 ratio (SQ PHI = 2.618).

13. The black box shows that the formation of the H&S pattern shown required 147 up and 71 down calendar days (FIBONACCI #=144 & ½ FIBONACCI #144=72) placing the two in ratio of 2.070 (SQ RT PHI X PHI = 2.058).

14. This market is thus consistent with the conclusions seen elsewhere in the complex.

UPDATED 20060911

COMMENT #327

CHART #652

1. CHART #652 updates hourly prices.

2. We can see that the red Wave 5 decline extended.

3. At the bottom, the decline is seen as lasting 18 hours.

4. From the low, a 6 hour appears to have occurred.

5. Although it is possible that the 6 hour advance completed an a-b-c correction, it is likely that only the blue Wave a advance shown is done (or about to be done).

6. The trading technique presented on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" is set up for short side entry today on the daily chart and in other markets in the complex.

UPDATED 20060911

COMMENT #328

CHART #653

1. CHART #653 shows daily prices for the market shown.

2. We want to take a look at the cycle projections for this market as it provided a very important clue at the May high when the MLC (Monthly Linear Time Cycle Index projected high) aligned with the high shown.

3. We can see how important the blue and green boxes were at the March and June lows.

4. In the upper right corner, it is expected that the red and blue boxes have provided an important signal in manner similar as was seen in May.

5. You should be able to see the formation of a hear-and-shoulders top formation in this CHART as in those in above COMMENTS.

6. Here the pink horizontal dashed line has been drawn from the right shoulder top.

7. The blue ascending pitchfork shown has been quite important to this market and price is just now barely above the lower blue ascending pitchfork.

8. From a monthly perspective, it was 3 ½ (or 4) months from the left shoulder to the head and is 3 ½ (or 4) months from the head to the right shoulder.

9. The expectation is that price is now falling from the right shoulder high.

UPDATED 20060911

COMMENT #329

CHART #654

(continued from COMMENT #320)

1. CHART #654 also shows daily prices for the continuous spot futures contract.

2. The horizontal pink line shows that this market has also failed to attain the November low.

3. The down red arrows show that the recent high was set right amongst the first "cluster" of turns projected by the Astro turning points on page 376 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".

4. We can see that the TREND INDEX is turning down as shown by the red horizontal arrow in the bottom right corner of the CHART.

5. As can be seen, this market, like the others, is set up for short side entry today via the trading technique presented on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual".