SEPTEMBER COMMENTS
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Comment numbers for 20060912 330 331 332 333 334
GENERAL COMMENTS
"It would indeed be ironic if,
in the name of national defense,
we would sanction the subversion of one of the liberties . . .
which makes the defense of the Nation worthwhile."
- United States v. Robel, 389 US 258, 264 (1967)
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1. We always want to be aware of those projected turning points on page 376 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".
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CURRENT COMMENTS
Whatever we expect with confidence becomes our own self-fulfilling prophecy. UPDATED 20060912
COMMENT #330
CHART #s 655-659
1. After the May high-of-the-year was set, we focused on the retest in the following two CHARTS:
2. Yesterday, we looked at how a head-and-shoulders top was forming in the following CHART of day session prices for the December contract:
3. We also discussed a couple of markets where lower highs were recently seen:
4. Today's CHART #655 of daily prices for the continuous spot futures contract shows that, contrary to the head-and-shoulders top formation in the December contract, this contract has also experienced a series of lower highs as seen by the four red hats.
5. This formation is expected to be of importance due to the occurrence of the 4th red had at the lunar eclipse and blue WIC (Weekly Inversion Cycle Index) box and projected turn in the upper right corner.
6. The decline to the June low required 33 calendar days followed by 85 to the September high (FIBONACCI #s=34 & 89).
7. 85 / 33 = 2.576 (SQ PHI = 2.618).
8. This relationship suggests that the two movements to the June low and September high are related.
9. One possible explanation of this relationship in the continuous spot futures contract is shown at the thick horizontal black line (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
10. This interpretation will not be "confirmed" until the June low at the thick pink horizontal line is taken out.
UPDATED 20060912
COMMENT #331
CHART #656
1. CHART #656 updates hourly prices for the cash index.
2. Close inspection shows that this market is set up for short side entry via the trading technique presented on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual".
3. The blue a-b-c Elliott Wave formation suggests corrective price action (counter-trend).
4. The blue Wave 2 shown in the CHART required (assuming completion) 6-3-3=12 hours with a/c=2.000 and a=6=b+c.
5. W1=18/W2=12=1.500.
UPDATED 20060912
COMMENT #332
CHART #657
1. CHART #657 shows daily prices for the cash index with the cycle projections from the continuous spot futures contract added.
2. In the COMMENT of 20060512, we discussed the importance of focusing on that contract that is best providing insight for the rest of a complex.
3. At this time, this market appears especially important.
4. The reason is the relationship of the high last week to the July high.
5. The upper pink horizontal line suggests that the blue Wave 2 high is still in place (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
6. If correct, then the black Wave 1-2 sequence is now complete and the market has begun a black Wave 3 of blue Wave 3 decline.
7. In words, a "3rd of a 3rd".
8. These are supposed to be the most implosive of declines with downside gaps, spike days down and so on.
9. The CHART shows that the entirety of the movement from the high in the upper left corner to the high last week has lasted 123 calendar days (LUCAS #=123) with 59 calendar days in the blue movement and 64 in the black (approximate equality).
10. 123 / 59 = 2.085 (PHI X SQ RT PHI = 2.058).
11. A break of the lower thick ascending red trendline suggests that the 3rd of a 3rd movement should be underway.
UPDATED 20060912
COMMENT #333
CHART #658
1. CHART #658 shows hourly prices for the continuous spot futures contract.
2. This movement is a little different than the cash index and shows a decline of 20 hours and advance of 14, 34 total (FIBONACCI #s=13, 21 & 34).
3. The decline / advance are thus in approximate PHI relationship at the 50 percent price retracement level which is shown in the CHART by the red horizontal dotted line.
UPDATED 20060912
COMMENT #334
CHART #659
1. The CHART shows daily prices for the continuous spot futures price.
2. The decline shown appears complete just above the last swing low in June.
3. The 5 wave nature of the decline suggests that although a swing low should be seen, the corrective action is not yet done.
2. We always want to be aware of those "Inversion Cycle Indexes" in the weekly pages of the April through September edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" which is available in an easy-to-use electronic format. A sample of the format for the charting file may be seen in the NOTICE posted here. Ordering information here!
3. The initial issue of the free "Trading on the Edge" E-Zine was released 20001021. Archived copies are available here. Subscription information here.
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--Brian Tracy
