SEPTEMBER COMMENTS
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Comment numbers for 20060915 343 344
GENERAL COMMENTS
"It would indeed be ironic if,
in the name of national defense,
we would sanction the subversion of one of the liberties . . .
which makes the defense of the Nation worthwhile."
- United States v. Robel, 389 US 258, 264 (1967)
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1. We always want to be aware of those projected turning points on page 376 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".
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CURRENT COMMENTS
A master can tell you what he expects of you. UPDATED 20060915
COMMENT #343
CHART #S 672 & 673
1. CHART #s 672 & 673 update daily prices for the following:
2. CHART #672 assumes the red Wave 1 advance from the 605 low to the 613 high and red Wave 2 correction to the 804 low (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
3. From the red Wave 2 low, the assumption is that a black Wave 1-a-b-c-2 sequence thereafter occurred as shown in the CHART.
4. This movement ended at the end of the month at the blue WIC (Weekly Inversion Cycle Index projected turn) blue box shown in the lower right corner.
5. The two blue WIC boxes thus appear to have marked both the red Wave 2 low and the black Wave 2 low.
6. From the 831 low, the blue boxes then outline an up-down-up-down series of short term swings to yesterday's low.
7. The expectation is that these blue boxes mark a Wave i, ii, iii & iv wave turns of an expected 5 wave impulsive advance.
8. A bit of caution is in order as shown by the blue box with the 11 calendar days marked as the two advancing segments do allow for the black Wave 1 & 2 shown to be, instead, a Wave A high and Wave B low.
9. The 11 calendar days in each of the advancing segments would thus make the two uplegs equal as A=11=C.
10. This is not believed to be the case, however, and a break of the pink horizontal short line just above Monday's high should negate.
11. CHART #673 updates daily prices for the cash index.
12. The blue shaded box at the upper end of the attempted "slams" marked in the box remains of importance to this market.
13. As can be seen, yesterday price traded back into the box.
14. The ability to hold above the thin pink horizontal line drawn off the 901 intraday high as shown in the CHART suggests that the Wave i, ii, iii, & iv interpretation is likely correct.
15. As can be seen, the movement began at the Astro Point "cluster" listed on page 376 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition" with last week's high and yesterday's low also occurring at the red up and down arrows shown.
16. The thin blue ascending pitchfork has been redrawn to bring the points into proper alignment with the black Wave 1 high of 814 and black Wave 2 low of 831.
17. The ability of yesterday's low to thus hold above the lower prong of this ascending thin blue pitchfork is thus consistent with and unfolding impulsive advance in progress.
18. The next important event in this market is thus a break of the intraday highs of last week.
19. Should such break occur, it will, of course, correspond with a break of intraday lows by other markets in the complex.
UPDATED 20060915
COMMENT #344
CHART #S 674-676
1. CHART #674 updates daily prices for the continuous spot futures price.
2. The red up and down arrows are the Astro turning point projections from page 376 of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".
3. We can see that price remains below the high in the upper right corner.
4. CHART #675 also shows daily prices, but for the cash index.
5. This index is formed from about 30 more years of data than the continuous spot futures contract.
6. We can see how price has move up from the large blue MIC (Monthly Inversion Cycle Index) projected turn at the bottom of the CHART to the large blue MIC box in the upper right corner.
7. Because price has been moving up into the projected turn, the expectation is that price will form an important top in alignment with the projection.
8. The small red lines show that such momentum oscillators as RSI and Slow Stochastics are failing to confirm the new high in price, thereby forming an important price / momentum oscillator divergence (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
9. CHART #676 shows the December futures day session contract.
10. Here we see an up gap this morning.
11. The 5 black numbers suggest that the advance exhausted its energy on the upside opening this morning.
12. If the labeling is correct, the movement unfolded in 2-2-14-7-2=27 hours.
13. Here we see W1=2=W2=W5 and W3=14=2 X W4.
14. The black text in the upper left corner shows 18 up and 9 down hours in this advance so that 18/9=2.000.
15. When we compare the 1st and 5th waves, we can see that they are about equal in both price and time.
16. Hence, although it is possible that the black Wave 5 high is only the 3rd of this movement, such is not likely.
17. The two horizontal pink lines show important support levels that, if taken out, can easily form downside cascade as early morning enthusiasm causes longside liquidation prior to the forthcoming weekend.
2. We always want to be aware of those "Inversion Cycle Indexes" in the weekly pages of the April through September edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" which is available in an easy-to-use electronic format. A sample of the format for the charting file may be seen in the NOTICE posted here. Ordering information here!
3. The initial issue of the free "Trading on the Edge" E-Zine was released 20001021. Archived copies are available here. Subscription information here.
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