The rank and file is usually much more primitive than we imagine.
Propaganda must therefore always be essentially simple and repetitious.
The most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success
unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly ...
it must confine itself to a few points
and repeat them over and over.

--Joseph Goebbels

UPDATED 20060927

COMMENT #367

CHART #705

1. The following CHART of daily prices for the cash index ……

2. …… is updated in today's CHART #705.

3. This is one of the weakest indexes in the complex.

4. We can see, at the horizontal pink trendline to the right of yesterday's price, how this market is set up today for short side entry via the trading technique presented on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual".

5. As can be seen, price is trying to hold the lower blue ascending pitchfork line.

6. The most important aspect of the current situation is how price traded up into the blue and red boxes in the upper right corner and set the high shown at the blue Wave 2 high amidst the boxes.

7. The following CHART was released at the high just before the eclipse and equinox.

UPDATED 20060927

COMMENT #368

CHART #s 706 & 715

1. We were viewing the daily CHART of the cash index as price moved up from the green to the red box in the upper right corner:

2. A couple of days later, the December hourly futures contract was shown here when it appeared that the advance was complete:

3. The two segments marked in the CHART by the vertical red lines showed two 27 hours segments, 54 total (FIBONACCI #=55).

4. Although the top did occur, after a minor decline, a new high 25 hours later occurred as was shown here:

5. The new high caused reassessment which was shown in the new hourly CHART above.

6. Today's CHART #766 shows daily prices for the cash index.

7. The new high has caused further reassessment of both the daily and hourly CHARTS.

8. We can see how price is holding the lower blue ascending pitchfork line.

9. Such momentum oscillators as RSI and Slow Stochastics are continuing to diverge with price as shown by the short red sloping trendlines thereby forming an important price / momentum oscillator divergence (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

10. The four black numbers 1 through 4 suggest that the market is now about to complete the black Wave 5 advance (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").

11. We can see how the high in the upper left corner occurred at the "cluster" of Astro turning points in the 1st Half Edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac".

12. The black Wave 3 high of the current advance occurred at the next "cluster".

13. These "clusters" are identified by the red arrows in the yellow boxes.

14. We can see, in the upper right corner, how the next "cluster" aligns with the red and blue boxes shown.

15. The three red shaded boxes show that the decline to the July low lasted 71 calendar days (l/2 FIBONACCI #144 = 72) and that the rise to today has lasted another 71 calendar days.

16. There is no doubt that the break of the red horizontal dashed line drawn from the May high should help raise the bullish sentiment in this popular market and contract.

17. We've already discussed how these new highs seen in the markets in the top row in the following CHART are not being confirmed by those in the bottom row, thereby forming an important intramarket divergence.

18. If the black Wave 1 is assigned a value of 1.000, the black Wave 3 is about .786 X W1.

19. On Friday, the rise from the July low will have lasted 72 calendar days (1/2 FIBONACCI #144 = 72) and will consist of 60 up and 12 down days so that up / down = 5.000.

20. The series of black a-b-c 3 legged movements in each of the black numbered waves can thus be used to explain today's CHART #715 of daily prices for the December contract.

21. In fact, given the reassessment seen in the #706 CHART of today, a 3 legged movement is what is expected.

22. We can see that the total distance marked in the CHART by the red lines above price covered 27-27-25-30=109 total hours (2 X FIBONACCI #55=110) through yesterday's close.

23. Several relationships are marked in the CHART by the green numbers and arrows.

UPDATED 20060927

COMMENT #369

CHART #707

1. The following CHART of daily prices for the cash index ……

2. …… is updated in today's CHART #707.

3. A minor new intraday and closing high occurred late yesterday.

UPDATED 20060927

COMMENT #370

CHART #708

1. The following CHART of daily prices for the continuous spot futures price ……

2. …… is updted in today's CHART #708.

3. We can see how price has moved up to the next descending blue pitchfork line.

4. The decline to the low shown lasted 133 trading days followed by a 50 trading day rally to yesterday's high.

5. Down / up = 2.660 (SQ PHI = 2.618).

6. The 5 black numbered waves shown in the decline and a-b-c nature of the ensuing advance suggest that trend has turned down in this market.

7. It also suggests that this market is about to complete the up trend.

8. The ratio of the total 50 trading day advance to the black Wave a upleg is 1.643 (PHI = 1.618) and suggests that it is not out of the question that the advance is already down or is about to be completed.

9. The short red lines show that such momentum oscillators as RSI and Slow Stochastics are failing to confirm the new high yesterday just as such oscillators failed to confirm the June and July lows and the January high (see the short red lines in the bottom box).

UPDATED 20060927

COMMENT #371

CHART #709

1. The following CHART of daily prices for the cash index was used to mark the high of the year for most markets in the complex ……

2. The subsequent decline appeared as a 3 legged affair, however, as may be seen by the two red boxes between the May / June downleg.

3. By late last month, the market was exhibiting unusual strength and was about at the year's high as may be seen above.

4. A monthly CHART was then presented to attempt to explain the unusual strength in this market:

5. At the same time, the following CHART of daily prices suggested, because of the three green ratios shown, that the movement was about complete:

6. Today's CHART #709 shows that price has continued to advance, however:

7. The new high has caused a reassessment.

8. We can see that we are at the 233rd trading day from the October low at yesterday's intraday high (FIBONACCI #=233).

9. The two green boxes above price show that the two uplegs shown are about equal in price.

10. The June low divides the movement shown into two segments of 161 and 72 trading days (100 X PHI = 161.8 and ½ FIBONACCI # 144 = 72).

11. From the June low, the market is assumed to have unfolded in the blue 5 wave sequence shown.

12. If the blue Wave 3 advance is assigned a value of 1.000, W1 = 1/PHI X W3 and W5 = .500 X W3.

13. The two blue ascending trendlines show a diagonal triangle forming with a minor throwover at the end of this, one of the strongest indexes in the complex.

14. The two red ascending trendlines market an ascending channel and show that price has reached the upper ascend thin red trendline.

15. At the top of the CHART, we can see that price is about at the red thick ascending trendline.

16. At the bottom we can see that the two segments divided by the June low are in a ratio of 2.236 : 1.000 (SQ RT 5 = 2.236).

UPDATED 20060927

COMMENT #372

CHART #710

1. A couple of days ago, the following December futures contract was believed to be in weak position.

2. But the market has traded up and taken out the red Wave 2 high as can be seen in today's CHART #710 of hourly prices for the December contract:

3. The break is seen at the pink horizontal line and has necessitated that the interpretation be refigured.

4. That reconfigured picture is shown herein:

5. We can see that price has traded up to the upper red ascending channel trendline.

6. The Wave B low has been moved over to the right and is comprised of a 6-10-5=21 hour movement as marked in the CHART by the numbers in red box below price.

7. The previous measurements remain.

8. The new ones are in the red box above price and show that the movement now to the red Wave 1 low and red Wave 2 high has occurred over 36 hours in the decline and 35 in the advance, 71 total (FIBONACCI #=34 & ½ FIBONACCI #144 = 72).

9. The two green boxes show that the red Wave A of 2 advance is about equal in price to the red Wave C of 2 advance.

10. Price has traded back into the grey price gap shown, but the assumption remains that this market and complex is believed to be in weak position.

UPDATED 20060927

COMMENT #373

CHART #681

1. A few days ago, we saw how the following CHART of daily prices for the December contract was retesting the low of the last several months.

2. An alternative bullish scenario was presented below price in the blue box.

3. Today's CHART #711 updates.

4. From the red Wave [B] low, the market has attempted to go back up and retest the 48 trading day island gap marked in the CHART.

5. Today is the 8th trading day of the upside attempt after an 8 trading day decline (FIBONACCI # = 8).

6. These time segments are shown in the CHART.

7. We can see the short green line in the bottom box suggesting that such momentum oscillators as RSI and Slow Stochastics have not yet diverged with price.

8. It is likely that quite a few public sell short / bail out stop orders are just a bit below the pink horizontal trendline.

9. The ideal price action will see an early high that takes out yesterday's high and then fails.

10. New / add-on positions can be added on a break of the early morning price range and low, yesterday's intraday low, the lower red ascending channel trendline and so on.

11. The point is, if the market is in as weak hands as it appears to be, it is likely to be in position to stage another cascading decline.

12. Whether it does or not is not important.

13. The point is that risk to find out if it does or not is very small and potential reward quite large.

UPDATED 20060927

COMMENT #374

CHART #712

1. A bit ago, the following CHART was suggested from the short side after about a half-year sideways chop:

2. Today's CHART #712 shows that price has declined to the blue Monthly / Weekly Inversion Cycle Index alignment shown.

3. This is one of the most powerful of market forces we can learn to follow.

4. We can see that yesterday's low occurred 55 calendar days after the August high (FIBONACCI #=55) and 287 after the high shown in the upper left corner (2 X FIBONACCI #144=288).

5. As can be seen, the August high was 232 calendar days after the December high (FIBONACCI #=233).

6. At the bottom of the CHART, we can see that large speculative interests appear to still be holding on to large long positions and have throughout the decline of the last couple of months.

7. This suggests that the decline is not over, though a short term bounce is expected.

UPDATED 20060927

COMMENT #375

CHART #713

1. CHART #713 shows daily prices for the day session contract shown.

2. We can see that these markets are in position to provide long side entry signal today via the trading technique presented on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual".

3. We can use this signal to exit positions in these markets, if filled.

4. If price continues lower, hopefully, the positions will not be exited.

5. If exited, the expectation is that another opportunity to reenter short positions will present itself later.

UPDATED 20060927

COMMENT #376

CHART #714

1. In July, the following CHART of seasonal tendencies from "The 2006 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition" combined with the red and blue projected highs and turns from the April - September edition of "The 2006 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" to produce an important high in price.

2. The action was shown in the following CHART of September daily prices.

3. Today's CHART #714 shows daily prices for the December contract.

4. From the July high, the market appears to have unfolded in the 5 wave Elliott Wave pattern shown (see pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Refrence Manual").

5. The low seems to have been set a month or so later than the low that normally occurs in August.

6. An advance thereafter usually occurs for a month or so.

7. The blue Monthly / Weekly Inversion Cycle Index alignment shown in todays CHART and the red LTC TREND INDEX shown in the CHART below price appear to have delayed the normal seasonal rise this year.

8. At the bottom of the CHART, we can see that the net commercial position has increased during the price rise from a very net negative level at the July highs.

9. The expectation is that the normal rise is about to get underway.

10. We can see how price is set up for long side entry today via the trading technique presented on pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual".

11. Hopefully, price will spend a couple of more days trading a bit lower and retesting the low shown prior to advancing.

UPDATED 20060927

COMMENT #377

CHART #715

1. See COMMENT #368 above.