A&P Points

24 OF THE LAST 26 MAJOR STOCK MARKET TURNS SINCE 1980 HAVE OCCURRED WITHIN TWO DAYS OF ONE OF THESE POINTS ! ! !

(Please note that stating that 24 of the last 26 major stock market turns have occurred within two days of one of these points is not the same as stating that all "A" & "P" points generate major stock market turns.)

The arrows in the following chart of daily Dow Jones Industrial Average prices show the May 23 to July 16 decline of 1996 which, through year-end 1996, was the largest stock market correction since 1990.

The "A" & "P" points nailed the top and missed the bottom by one day
marking the 19th and 20th major turns since 1980.

And when the stock indexes again peaked in the first quarter of 1997 (the NASDAQ peaked first in January, the S&P 500 in February, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average in March), each major peak was but one trading day off an "A" or "P" point in this, the 21st major turn since 1980!

The chart shows the March peak in the Dow with the arrow marking the "P" point.

The ensuing "correction" to 970414 was the steepest in 7 years.

(The 970414 low provided the 22nd major turn since 1979 and the first of the 22 missed by the "A" and "P" Points).

IF YOU TRADE OR INVEST IN STOCKS,
DO YOU REALLY WANT TO BE
WITHOUT THIS INFORMATION???

UPDATE September 30, 1997

The trader should not confine the use of "The Almanac's" "A" and "P" points to only the stock market, either. As an example, the chart below shows daily prices for December, 1997 gold (top) and silver (bottom) over the last few months.

To date, there have been 4 "A" points in the second half of 1997 and no "P" points. Each of the 4 "A" points is marked in the chart.

"A Point 1" marked the low in the gold market for the last 10 years or so. This low came amid widespread panic as "news" of Australian and other central bank gold sales hit the market and was repeatedly and widely disseminated by such "authoritative sources" as CNBC, etc. Sure seemed important at the time, didn't it?

Isn't it funny how reporters always seem able to get "hooked" on "important news stories" distributed by inside dealers which cause the uninformed public to sell right into major bottoms as the large dealers who distributed the stories are filling their baskets with buy orders and lining their pockets with the ill-informed public's money?

"A Point 2" missed the low in the silver market for the last 4 years or so - by one day!!!

"A Point 3" marked the initial high in the gold market which was not exceeded for the next 2 1/2 months or so.

"A Point 4" exactly marked the end of the two month correction in the gold market.

Now, I can't guarantee you that every "A Point" and every "P Point" is going to mark an exact turn of similar proportions in the metals complex . . .

But, if you have ANYTHING to do with the markets,
do you EVER want to be without the knowledge of WHEN these points occur ???

In fact, wasn't the REAL news on the dates marked in the chart not that which they speak of on CNBC, but the occurrence of the "A" and "P" points?

The 23rd and 24th major stock market turns (basis the Dow Jones Industrial Average or DJIA) occurred when the market peaked on August 7, 1997 and bottomed 57 trading days later (FIBONACCI # = 55) on October 28, 1997.

The "A & P Points" missed this peak, although they did catch the peak made just 5 trading days earlier. Further, the steepest portion of this decline occurred from October 8, 1997 to October 28, 1997.

AP Points Graph4.gif (3622 bytes)

The "down arrow" in the chart of daily DJIA prices marks the end on October 8, 1997 of the retest high and one of the most significant "clusters" of points on the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 8th since the cluster on the 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, and 25th of August, 1987 ended on the very day of the 1987 all-time high prior to the "Black Monday" crash 56 calendar days later (FIBONACCI # = 55).

The ensuing 1997 drop was, again, the steepest since the October, 1990 correction.

Furthermore, the closing low coincided with an "A Point" on October 27, 1997 EXACTLY while the intraday low occurred 1 day later.

The following chart shows daily cash prices for the RUSSELL 2000 stock market index for most of 1998.

The first "down arrow" shown in the chart marks the all-time high in small-cap stocks through year-end, 1998 and occurred EXACTLY ON an "Astro Point".

The Dow Jones Transportation Average peaked the previous day while the New York Stock Exchange advance/decline line also peaked in April.

The second "down arrow" marked the July high in most other stock market averages such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average which also occurred EXACTLY ON an "Astro Point".

The "A&P Points" thus marked both important peaks TO THE EXACT DAY.

Given the severity of the ensuing decline, the two peaks taken together are considered the 25th major stock market turn since 1980.

The remaining arrows mark other "A&P Points" of importance listed in the 1998 edition of "The $upertrader's Almanac".

Of particular importance is the "up arrow" near the 981008 low which barely missed the exact low day.

The NASDAQ 100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both moved to new all-time highs the next month (November, 1998).

The 981008 low can thus be labeled as the 26th major market turn since 1980.

Through early December, 1998, the all-time high in the US Treasury Bond market was recorded on 981005.

This record high is shown in the chart which follows of daily December, 1998 prices.

The high occurred on an "A Point" EXACTLY.

COMMENT #s 728 and 731 of 981005 ALIGNED the "A&P Point" projections with the "Inversion Cycle Index" projections in "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" to identify the very day of the all-time high.

As can be seen in the chart, the ensuing sell-off was quite vicious as bond market liquidity evaporated as the Long Term Capital Management fiasco blew up.

The chart shows an "Elliott Wave" pattern which was used with an "Inversion Cycle Index" projection from "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" and the seasonal tendencies from "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition" in conjunction with an "Astro Point" to identify the high of the decade.

This decade high, which is shown in the chart just below "Point 5", occurred on Monday, August 17, 1998, just 1 calendar day after the "A Point" projection.

Because of the weekend, the turn is thus considered an EXACT HIT.

The October 8, 1998 low and November 30, 1998 correction high each missed an "A Point" projection - by but 1 day!

The lesson is, first, that the "A&P Point" projections are not limited to just the stock market and, second, that the information is especially important WHEN it ALIGNS WITH other information in the books which suggests either a market turn or trend acceleration.

The alignments in the preceding bond and dollar discussions serve as such examples.

Hence, although not every "A&P Point" projection is going to produce a major turn in the stock market, almost every "A&P Point" projection will ALIGN WITH a major market turn (i.e., a market other than the stock market IF not the stock market).

At the least, we should ALWAYS analyze the other projections in the books as each "A&P Point" approaches and search for ALIGNMENTS of the other projections with the "A&P Point" projections.

Use of this second approach will lower the number of markets we will need to closely monitor as the "A&P Point" draws near.

This trading technique is very easy to do, requires little more than the dates of the projections and a chart, and, as can be seen by the preceding examples, repeatedly leads to some of the most important turning points the markets experience during the course of the year!

. . . and you STILL have another 300 PAGES of valuable and timely information at your personal disposal!