Bond Market Highlight #2
US Treasury Note 2 year high occurs 1 day after ANNIVERSARY INDEX signal.
(COMMENT #s 2 [#9], 16, 18, 25)
UPDATED 19980105
COMMENT 1998-2
9. Note that these dates are right on the highest anniversary values of the month of January (see the table on page 78 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition").
Odds favor approaching this market from the short side.
UPDATED 19980109
COMMENT 1998-16
Turn to the "Progression of Prices" discussion on pages 272-280 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition".
1. TB have broken the February, 1996 high in this market but are nowheres near the October, 1992 high.
2. ED are considerably below their February, 1996 or October, 1992 highs and are DIVERGING with the TB high of this week (see pages 171-184 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
3. TN have not broken their February, 1992 or September, 1993 highs and are DIVERGING with the TB high of this week (see pages 171-184 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
4. TN are not CONFIRMING the new all-time highs in the BD (see pages 171-184 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
5. BD, by moving higher, are DIVERGING from stocks, which are moving lower.
6. When bonds peak and begin to move lower, one of the most interesting questions of 1998 will be answered. Continuation of the present DIVERGENCE would suggest that stocks would be in position to rally. The more traditional expectation that stocks and bonds somewhat parallel each other's moves would suggest that they both move down together.
7. Each market's phase is a little different. In this phase, for instance, funds have flown to the long end of the interest rate sector during times of instability rather than to the highest quality, short end.
UPDATED 19980113
COMMENT 1998-18
1. The OPTIONAL FAX "Seasonal Trade Portfolio" began to follow BD and TN from the short side by using the "ALMANAC V" trading algorithm beginning yesterday (see pages 256 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition").
2. The OPTIONAL FAX "Seasonal Trade Portfolio" began to follow CL, HO, CC, and SV from the long side by using the "ALMANAC V" trading algorithm beginning yesterday (see pages 256 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition").
UPDATED 19980115
COMMENT 1998-25
1. The March bonds were sold 980112 at 12323 in COMMENT 1998-18.
2. The March notes were sold 980112 at 11420 in COMMENT 1998-18.
3. Should pay for a few year's Almanacs!
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