Bond Market Highlight #9
"Inversion Cycle Index" and "Linear Cycle
Index" from "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" project
major trend reversal in US Treasury Bond market and combine with "Astro Points"
and "Seasonals" listed in "The 1998 $upertrader's
Almanac - 2nd Half Edition" and Elliott Wave pattern explained in "The
$upertrader's Reference Manual" to anticipate major up trend.
(COMMENT #s 531, 534)
UPDATED 19980717
COMMENT 1998-531
1. I'd again remind you all that it doesn't hurt to turn to page 398 in "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition" once in a while.
UPDATED 19980717
COMMENT 1998-534
1. Here's another way to use the books.
2. It's sort of a "backdoor" analysis.
3. As an example, grab a chart of the September US Treasury Bond market.
4. From the top on 980615, note the pattern which has occurred.
5. Let's ask the question, "Is there any possibility that this market has formed some sort of a large Elliott Wave A-B-C correction since the June high?"
6. "A" low on 980617, "B" high on 980702, and "C" low yesterday.
7. First, let's turn to page 149 in "The $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".
8. See the "WIC" listing?
9. Oh, oh!
10. Now let's turn to page 303.
11. See the solid line at the bottom of the page?
12. If you didn't know what this line represented, just look at the "key" at the bottom of the page.
13. It states that the line is the "Linear Cycle" index.
14. This is the 29th week of the year (see inside of the front cover for quick orientation).
15. Now look at what this line's projecting over the next several weeks.
16. Whoops!
17. Now let's take a quick look in "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".
18. Note the arrows in the second chart down from the top of the page.
19. See the arrows above the long term seasonals in the middle of the page?
20. Can you see how the arrows suggest that the seasonal influence is "up" in this market for the immediate future?
21. Isn't this an easy, intuitive conclusion?
22. What this information is suggesting is that we're at a very important point in this market.
23. There's a pretty good possibility that the market just might be completing a large "A-B-C" formation.
24. We thus need some CONFIRMATION that the downside if our short position is to continue, for this market is subject to reversal.
25. All that aside, the "c of B" outlook repeatedly espoused in these COMMENTS since late April is still the favored scenario in the bond market.
26. This scenario suggests that the top is in and the upmove complete.
27. We thus want the market to "show its cards" and PROVE that the "A-B-C" is the correct interpretation.
28. In other words, we want the market to FORCE us into the reversal position.
27. Now let's get to the purpose of this discussion.
28. The important point is not the bond outlook, but the process by which we have used the information in the book to lend credibility to observed market action.
29. We have noted a possible "A-B-C" pattern or formation.
30. We have used the books to ALIGN information which enforces the observation.
31. What I am trying to reinforce is that, just as the books can be used to originate trades, so can they be used in reverse order to CONFIRM other signals the market is providing (see pages 171-184 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
32. Hence, the REVERSE use of the information in the books.
What Highlight do you want to go to next?
Bond Market Trading Highlights Main Page