Currency Market - Deutschmark Highlight #2
1998 low identified through the use of extensive technical
analysis contained in "The $upertrader's Reference Manual".
(COMMENT #s 283, 295, 296)
UPDATED 19980406
COMMENT 1998-283
1. Let's look around page 93 of "The $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" a little more.
2. From the "WIC", let's turn to page 333.
3. Can you see how this market is still holding last August's lows?
4. Traders should be particularly sensitive to market reversals to the upside in this market and should employ approaches that provide short entry with tight stops against recent lows in the June contract.
5. The very short term trading system presented on pages 96-101 of "The $upertrader's Almanac - Reference Manual" is such a "system".
6. A close above the open over the next few days will cause a "black" candlestick which should be sufficient to provide a short term entry signal.
7. The system presented in pages 205-209 of "The $upertrader's Almanac - Reference Manual" is particularly suitable for this market at this time as is the "ALMANAC II" trading system presented in "The 1996 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition).
8. The reader should observe that trading is simply the process of identifying a number of situations such as this one that have a chance of working out quite well if the analysis is correct but which involve very little risk to capital if wrong.
9. If prices did not bottom for the year this last week, odds will begin to favor that the scenario presented in the middle chart on page 282 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition", last sentence, will not manifest itself.
10. Momentum oscillators such as RSI and Slow Stochastics are providing bullish DIVERGENCES (see pages 171-184 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
UPDATED 19980408
COMMENT 1998-295
Here's a couple of trendlines which should be monitored;
1. The up trendline in the NYM off the 980109 low - broken today, but closed above the trendline.
2. The up trendline in the redrawn DJM which was touched today (same in the cash DJIA market).
3. Most other stock indexes have now broken their up trendlines, the RTM quite dramatically so.
4. The cash DM is right on a down trendline of the last 1 1/2 years while the spot futures contract is just below this down trendline.
5. One more factor for the weight of the evidence if these trendlines are broken.
UPDATED 19980408
COMMENT 1998-296
1. Hope you caught the four plays in COMMENT #s 283 and 291.
2. Four plays, and we go home tonight with four winners in our pocket, all for turning a few pages in the books.
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