Futures Market - Copper Highlight #1
Long copper position signaled by "Inversion Cycles" and "ALMANAC V" trading technique exact day of 4 year low and prior to sharp rally
(COMMENT #s 107, 126, 132)
UPDATED 19980219
COMMENT 1998-107
1. Turn to pages 269 and 345 of "The 1997-98 Book of Linear Time Cycles".
2. Can you see how the largest weekly "Inversion Cycle Index" in the chart (the dotted line) occurs this week?
3. On a weekly chart, can you see how this market is attempting to hold a multi-year low just like so many other commodity markets of late (in this case, a 10 year low or so)?
4. Can you see how the lows in the May contract this week are not being CONFIRMED by such momentum oscillators as RSI and Slow Stochastics?
5. Can you look at page 316 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition" and tell whether we should be preparing to buy or sell this market?
6. Can you see how the December and deferred contracts have failed to CONFIRM the new lows in the spot contract?
7. Can you see how the "ALMANAC V" trading system, minus the SET UP, has already given a buy signal in this market?
UPDATED 19980224
COMMENT 1998-126
In my opinion, traders should apply the "ALMANAC V" trading system, minus the SET UP discussed in #s 1. through 3. of page 256 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition", to the market reviewed in COMMENT # 107.
UPDATED 19980226
COMMENT 1998-132
1. Still don't believe?
2. Let's go back to COMMENT # 107.
3. The "Wall Street Journal" featured this market Monday morning, 980223.
4. The headlines blared, "How low can [this market] go"?
5. Numerous reasons were cited for the anticipated lower prices - increased capacity, less demand - the usual claptrap commercial dealers dispense to the financial media which causes public consensus to focus on the obvious while commercials are accumulating postions.
6. If this information was so important, DO YOU REALLY THINK THOSE WHO POSSESSED IT WOULD SHARE IT WITH YOU AND ME until WELL AFTER they had positioned themselves accordingly???
7. The market opened lower on this BAD NEWS and bottomed Tuesday.
8. I guess the poor public participants who bought the silver on the very high date of 980205 were maybe exiting their silver longs so they could switch to new short positions in this market because of this important NEWS which was SURE to drive the market lower - after all, it WAS printed in the WSJ, wasn't it?
9. Wednesday, of course, experiences a sharp upside reversal and the public eats another one.
10. Can you see how the "ALMANAC V" trading system, as reviewed in COMMENT # 126, caught this reversal VERY close to both the exact low price and low day and PRIOR TO the upside surge? (A second try was required - the first lost $250).
11. Note how price is now much HIGHER than it was on Monday when this NEWS was announced.
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