Futures Market - Silver Highlight #3
Seasonals signal lower silver prices.
(COMMENT # 131)
UPDATED 19980226
COMMENT 1998-131
1. As an example, let's focus on the SV market.
2. Can you turn to seasonal trade # 68 on page 122 for the SVK market?
3. Can you see that this is a DOWN seasonal (note the "-" sign in front of the 678 "AVPF" [average profit])?
4. Can you see how SVK is listed as a "SEASONAL SLAMMER" and as a "SEASONAL LAUCHING" on page 131 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition"?
5. Can you review COMMENT # 67 and see how the trading technique cited in that COMMENT when applied to SVH on the date of the COMMENT, 980210, resulted in an exit at, roughly, the 69800 level, or just before the beginning of seasonal trade # 68?
6. Now look at the examples on pages 79 and 87. Would the use of such a trading technique not have been in accordance with the ALIGNMENT principles reviewed on those pages?
7. The "Wall Street Journal" ran a front page article (markets section) on Warren Buffet's purchase of silver on 980205, the EXACT HIGH DAY of the move.
8. CNBC was hyperventilating they were so excited to share this "important" information with their viewers. Where were they in July when Buffet began accumulating the metal approximately $ 3.00 per ounce cheaper?
9. I believe I counted 5 separate articles in "Barron's" the weekend after the Thursday, 980205 high reviewing the bullish implications of Buffet's purchases to the silver market.
10. Through last night's close, the market had surrendered in just 13 trading days $ 1.45 of the $ 3.00, seven month upward move. All the people who followed the huffations of the financial media and bought the early February highs have either been forced out of the market by margin calls or are extremely squeamish at the 20 percent, 2 week price decline.
11. Do you now see another example of why I consider such information nothing but tabloid gossip?
12. Do you now see why, in my opinion, such information serves as a CONTRARY INDICATOR (see COMMENT # 106)?
13. Now turn to pages 273 and 361 of "The 1997 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".
14. Do you know the significance of the dotted line on page 361 (see page 20)?
15. Now review # 1.) of this COMMENT.
16. Now review seasonal trade # 100 on page 140.
17. Today is the 21st calendar day (FIBONACCI # = 21) since the 980205 high.
18. Isn't this easy?
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