Stock Market Highlight #19
"Astro Points" listed in "The 1998 $upertrader's
Almanac - 2nd Half Edition" and retracement concept presented in "The
$upertrader's Reference Manual" combine to produce sell recommendation the very day
of the stock market's largest advance ever (to date).
(COMMENT #s 665, 667)
UPDATED 19980908
COMMENT 1998-665
1. The chart which follows shows hourly day session prices for the day session of the
September S&P 500.
2. The chart continues the discussion of the last few days in COMMENT #s 633, 649, and
660.
3. The market traded up to 1028 today, just a tad above the 1022 target of COMMENT # 649
on 980903.
4. The vertical line shown in the chart is the same one which has been projected in recent
charts.
5. It contains the projection for 14:30 this afternoon.
6. Hence, the market has achieved its price target projected in COMMENT # 649 and its time
target projected in the same COMMENT.
7. It has done so, however, during a veritable stampede into stocks.
8. The 14:30 hour culminated the most points gained ever in the DJIA for a day's trading.
9. The "A" wave projection in COMMENT # 633 that the DJIA would not trade
appreciably above the 7900 level if our analysis was correct was a severe test of faith.
10. The "B" wave low on Friday was a second test of faith.
11. The "C" wave high today is a third test of faith.
12. If the analysis is correct, that's it.
13. We've just finished "Wave IV".
14. We'll know quickly tomorrow.
15. If you recall, in COMMENT # 633, and right in the middle of the biggest stock market
panic ever, our original expectation was that "Wave III" to the downside had
ended.
16. We discussed the TIME when (assuming our interpretation continues to be correct)
"Wave IV" should end.
17. See page 398 in "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 2nd Half Edition".
18. Now go to pages 236-8 in "The $upertrader's Reference Manual".
19. The horizontal lines in the middle of the chart show the 50 percent retracement level
and .618 retracement level of "Wave III" and of the entire move down since the
July high
.
UPDATED 19980909
COMMENT 1998-667
1. The chart at the end of this COMMENT shows hourly DJIA prices.
2. It continues the discussion of COMMENT #s 590 of 980820, 605 of 980826, and 633 of
980901, among others (i.e., 649, 660 and 665).
3. The first 3 COMMENTS should be reviewed now for orientation.
4. The "C of II" wave projection in COMMENT # 590 is shown in the chart as
originally presented.
5. As can be seen, the market peaked a bit lower and a tad earlier than projected, but
this early and lower peaking was the exact scenario reviewed in Point #s 7 - 12 of COMMENT
# 590 of 980820.
6. The actual "C of II" and the "II Wave" are, of course, a little to
the left of the "Point C" shown in the chart.
7. From "Point II", the market is labeled in accordance with recent COMMENTS and
the expectations presented in those COMMENTS.
8. In TIME, IF "Wave III" equals the 116 hours of "Wave I", "Wave
III" will end around 12:30 Friday.
9. As reviewed in COMMENT # 605, tomorrow 980910 is the 55th calendar day from the 980717
all-time closing high in the DJIA.
10. Sunday 980913 is the 55th calendar day since the 980720 intraday high in the DJIA.
11. One should recall that, IF everything is labeled correctly, and IF the PRICE and TIME
targets presented in this and recent COMMENTS are achieved, it will only be "Wave
III" that ends WHEN and IF the anticipated targets are attained.
12. The key factor in this interpretation, as it has been all along since the 980717 peak,
is that price is acting as it should - i.e., it is moving down in accordance with the
expectation.
13. The analyst always has several alternatives from which to choose.
14. It is the action of price itself which CONFIRMS which of several alternatives is the
likely path that price will follow.
15. We thus must always ask, "What would it take to invalidate the expectation?"
16. In this case, as this is written, it would take a move above the "Wave 4"
point shown in the chart.
17. RISK is thus very little at this time.
18. Note, because of the TIME factors reviewed in this COMMENT, the market must begin
moving DOWN NOW for the expectation to become reality.
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