Stock Market Highlight #21
Market peak occurs at confluence of concepts taught in "The
$upertrader's Reference Manual" and at "Cyclic Trend", "Linear Time
Cycle", and "Inversion Cycle" ALIGNMENTS projected in "The 1998-99
$upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".
(COMMENT #s 681, 692, 701, 703)
UPDATED 19980915
COMMENT 1998-681
1. Volume on this stock market "rally" over the last two weeks has been anemic.
2. It has not CONFIRMED the price movement up (see pages 171-84 of "The $upertrader's
Reference Manual").
UPDATED 19980923
COMMENT 1998-692
1. The chart shows hourly prices for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
2. The horizontal line in the chart shows the .382 retracement of the entire downmove from
the 980720 high to the 980901 low (intraday basis on both).
3. The horizontal down trendline at today's high is drawn off the 980720 high and the peak
of 980825.
4. For the DJIA, this is an obvious point of resistance.
5. Other averages, however, have well exceeded this equivalent point of resistance.
6. The December S&P 500, for instance, has not only broken, but has closed well above
this down trendline.
7. The equivalent up channel shown in COMMENT # 687 of 980920 is presented in the chart.
8. One possible Elliott Wave pattern is that two "A-B-C" corrective formations
have formed connected by the "X" wave shown in the chart.
9. We used to joke, however, that "X" waves are "don't know" waves.
10. In other words, with the other indexes having already broken above the down trendline,
the implication is that this is not a high probability scenario.
11. It is possible, however.
UPDATED 19980924
COMMENT 1998-701
1. The chart shows hourly December S&P prices.
2. As can be seen on pages 283-92 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual",
Elliott Waves surge in waves of 5 and correct in waves of 3.
3. Lesser known, however, are Elliott Wave impulse movements which occur in moves of 9
waves and corrections of 7 waves.
4. Another possible interpretation which uses this interpretation is shown in the chart.
5. The chart updates the features presented in recent charts of this market.
6. The up channel as originally presented is still drawn off the 980831 lows and the
"Point 4" low shown in the chart as it has been all along.
7. The upper channel trendline is still drawn off the "Point 1" high.
8. An additional up trendline is also shown in the chart which has now peaked prices 5
times this month.
9. Can you see these peaks in the chart?
10. The horizontal trendline shown in the chart which halted the price rise Wednesday is
the 50 percent retracement of the entire move from the mid-July high.
11. The move from the 980831 price low to the "Point 3" high required 34 trading
hours (FIBONACCI # = 34).
12. The move from the "Point 3" high to the "Point 6" low required 57
trading hours (FIBONACCI # = 55).
13. The move from the "Point 6" low to the "Point 7" high required 20
trading hours (FIBONACCI # = 21).
14. The entire move required 111 hours (2 X FIBONACCI # 55 = 110, 3 X MASTER # 37 = 111).
15. Note Monday's low at "Point 6".
16. This low was made on the opening as the tapes on the President's escapade were
released (NEWS).
17. The high yesterday was also made on NEWS as Greenspan's speech was discounted.
18. Have I misinterpreted my own work?
19. It's certainly possible.
20. After all, the weekly "Linear Cycle Indexes" on pages 293 and 297 of
"The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles" in the S&P 500 and
the NYSE clearly bottomed along with prices right at the beginning of the month.
21. More important, these projected cycle lows occurred right as the first weekly
"Inversion Indexes" were listed since the very week of the all-time mid-July
highs in the stock market as shown on pages 293 and 297 of the "Cycles Book".
22. OK, since this information has been so hot, let's simply turn to page 185 in "The
1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles".
23. Note the weekly "Inversion Cycle Indexes" listed under "WIC".
24. Hmmmm.
25. Isn't this interesting?
26. Now note the "WWX - HI" and "WLC - HI" listings for this market.
27. If you don't know what you're looking at, just reference the "key" which
explains that these terms are telling us that the weekly window and linear cycle indexes
are peaking this week.
28. Now let's look at the "Cyclic Trends" on the same page.
29. Note the "S" for this market.
30. As you can see in the "key" below the listings, "S" means sell
short.
31. Hence, the monthly and weekly linear time cycles are now in ALIGNMENT to the downside.
32. Wasn't that easy?
33. Just turn the pages of the book.
UPDATED 19980927
COMMENT 1998-703
In the stocks, we should note that, in such averages as the DJIA and NQZ, the PATTERN on
pages 205-9 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual" is set up.
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