Stock Market Highlight #9
Dow Jones Industrial Average unfolds in unusual three month manner.
(COMMENT #s 419, 431, 436, 437)
UPDATED 19980602
COMMENT 1998-419
Look at the following chart of hourly prices for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since mid-March or so.
1. Many will see charts and lines, numbers and letters.
2. To me, the proportion and symmetry are as Divinely inspired as the Mona Lisa or the most delicate of snow flakes.
3. Allow me share my observations with you and perhaps you'll feel my sense of wonderment.
4. The numbered and lettered points have no significance other than they represent a succession of turning points.
5. Point # 1 is the "wave iii of wave 3" high of 980325 identified in COMMENT # 414.
6. Point # 2 is the "wave iv of wave 3" high of 980401 identified in COMMENT # 414.
7. From Point # 2, a move upward began marked by Point #s 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7.
8. This move forms an ascending diagonal triangle which is marked by these 5 Points.
9. The move to each point from the previous point breaks down into 3 waves.
10. All 5 waves comprising the ascending diagonal triangle are Elliott Waves.
11. The ascending diagonal triangle is marked by the lower ascending trendline through Point #s 4 and 6 and by the upper ascending trendline through Point #s 3 and 5.
12. Even within the "5th Elliott Wave" of this ascending diagonal triangle, the market formed a smaller "5th Elliott Wave" ascending diagonal triangle.
13. This smaller ascending diagonal triangle occurred between Point #s 6 and 7 in the chart.
14. The ascending diagonal triangle and fractal nature of this ascending diagonal triangle was as anticipated in the "TOP TICK" report.
15. Note the "throwover", characteristic of the end of such ascending diagonal triangles, at Point # 7.
16. Note how the "throwover" occurred for both ascending diagonal triangles.
17. This ascending diagonal triangle completed on 980422 the "wave v of 3" high at Point # 7 in the DJIA as discussed in COMMENT # 414.
18. "Wave v of 3" began at point # 2 on 980401.
19. This ascending diagonal triangle also completed, on 980422, "wave 3" at Point # 7 of the move which began 980112.
20. In "wave v of 3", Point # 3 marked the 980406 all-time high (to date) in such averages as the June and spot S&P 500 and NYSE futures contracts.
21. Relevant information to the unfolding of this ascending diagonal triangle pattern was issued in the following COMMENT #s;
(a) A series of COMMENTS were issued as the peak at Point # 3 occured and the first Elliott Wave of the ascending diagonal triangle was formed (see COMMENT #s 270, 271, 274, 277, 281, 284, 288, and 290).
(b) Point # 4 on 980408 marked the end of the second Elliott Wave (see COMMENT #s 298, 299, and 300).
(c) Point # 5 on 980416 marked the end of the third Elliott Wave (see COMMENT #s 309 and 315).
(d) Point # 6 on 980416 marked the end of the fourth Elliott Wave (see COMMENT # 331).
(e) Point # 7 on 980422 marked the end of the fifth Elliott Wave ("wave v of 3") and completed the ascending diagonal triangle (see COMMENT #s 331 and 336).
22. The completion of the ascending diagonal triangle and all-time high in most stock indexes such as the NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, and cash S&P 500 occurred at Point # 7 on 980422.
23. The 980422 high at Point # 7 occurred EXACTLY on an "A Point" (see COMMENT # 334).
24. The sell-off was sharp and dramatic into the 980427 low at Point # 8 (see COMMENT #s 341, 344, 345, and 346).
25. The DJIA then moved to new all-time highs at Point # 9 on 980504 (see COMMENT #s 348, 356, 357, 361, 367, and 372).
26. This move was UNCONFIRMED by other major indexes and numerous other indicators thereby fulfilling, in CLASSIC fashion, the long-standing projection in the "TOP TICK" report.
27. Point #s 3, 4, 7, 8, and 9 then formed the second classical PATTERN shown in the chart, an expanding triangle top or reverse point wave.
28. The two trendlines drawn off Point #s 3 and 5 & 4 and 8 show this pattern (see COMMENT # 367).
29. The numerous DIVERGENCES between the DJIA and other market indexes with the DJIA providing the final market peak were repeatedly reviewed and projected in these COMMENTS (see COMMENT #s 305, 310, 319, 325, 331, 356, 367, and 407).
30. Point # 9 marked the 980504 all-time high (to date) in the DJIA.
31. Price then moved down to the 980507 low at Point # 0 (see COMMENT # 325).
32. A rally to the 980513 high at Point # A followed (see COMMENT #s 396, 398, and 402).
33. This rally missed the 980512 major "A Point" projection by 1 day (see COMMENT # 395, 414, and 415).
34. Price then moved down to the 980518 low at Point # B (see COMMENT #s 407 and 408).
35. Price finally moved up to Point # C and completed its correction (see COMMENT #s 414 and 415).
36. Two trendlines drawn off Point #s A and C & 0 and B formed the third classical PATTERN shown in the chart, a contracting triangle.
37. The cascade to the 980528 low at Point # D then occurred which was accentuated in the NQM (see COMMENT # 416).
38. The highs at Point #s 7 and A occurred 57 and 52 hours from the 980504 all-time high in the DJIA (FIBONACCI # = 55).
39. The lows at Point #s 6 and B occurred 79 and 74 hours from the 980504 all-time high in the DJIA (some will recognize 153 hours).
40. The highs at Point #s 5 and C occurred 86 and 92 hours from the 980504 all-time high in the DJIA (FIBONACCI # = 89).
41. The lows at Point #s 4 and D shown in the chart by the lowest horizontal line each occurred 115 trading hours from the 980504 all-time high in the DJIA.
42. The highs at 7 and A & 5 and C have formed the fourth classical PATTERN shown in the chart, a head and shoulders top.
43. Point # 7 (the left shoulder) occurred on a projected "A Point" EXACTLY while Point # A (the right shoulder) missed by 1 day (see page 398 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition).
44. The market peaks ALIGNED with the "Inversion Indexes" and "Linear Cycle Indexes" projected in "The 1998-99 $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles", ALIGNED with the "A & P Points" listed in "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition", ALIGNED with the Elliott Wave count from the 980112 low, ALIGNED with the long standing discussion in the "TOP TICK" report, and ALIGNED with the PATTERNs which developed in the market as referenced in these COMMENTS.
45. As you review and study the developments and COMMENTS highlighted in this discussion, note how the shifts in relative strength between the SPM and NQM were repeatedly noted and became important factors in enhancing trading results.
In conclusion, sometimes the market becomes a true spectacle and wonder. I believe this is one of those times.
Is God is a geometer?
Is the market as it has unfolded in accordance with "Bible Code"?
No matter what your belief system, an awe-inspiring, beautiful sunset is still an awe-inspiring, beautiful sunset.
Need we "be of" in order to enjoy its beauty?
Or is it sufficiently refreshing to simply see the hand of our Creator paint His beauty before our very eyes for us all to behold?
Are we not to conclude that even man's most earthly behavioral patterns are subject to His Order?
As if we need reminding, of our insignificance and humility.
UPDATED 19980611
COMMENT 1998-431
Refer to the chart in COMMENT # 419 of 980602;
1. As noted in that COMMENT, the following points were reflections of each other;
8 & 0, 7 & A, 6 & B, 5 & C, and 4 & D.
2. This leaves points 1, 2, and 3 "unmatched".
3. These points appear "mirrored" in the price action since the low at point "D".
4. The first point was at the high which occurred the first hour of 980529.
5. The second point was at the low which occurred the first hour of 980604.
6. The final point was at the high which occurred during the hour of 13:30 CST on Monday, 980608.
7. Let's label these points "E - F - G".
8. The intraday high of the three wave "E - F - G" sequence was 9104.7.
9. The intraday high of the three wave "1 - 2 - 3" sequence was 9094.5.
10. The intraday low of the three wave "E - F - G" sequence was 8749.9.
11. The intraday low of the three wave "1 - 2 - 3" sequence was 8748.7.
12. The "1 - 2 - 3" sequence unfolded in 27, 29, and 19 hours (75 total).
13. The "E - F - G" sequence unfolded in 10, 19, and 28 hours (57 total) (FIBONACCI # = 55).
14. In the SPM, the equivalent "E - F - G" sequence required 10, 27, and 33 (FIBONACCI # = 34) hours (70 total, or roughly the total of the "1 - 2 - 3" sequence).
15. Of course, when we note the number of hours required to complete the DJIA "E - F - G" sequence (see Point # 13. of this COMMENT) and that of the SPM, we see that the difference of (70 - 57) 13 hours (FIBONACCI # = 13) occurred because of the DIVERGENCE between the SPM and DJIA (see pages 171-184 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual).
16. This DIVERGENCE occurred as the SPM yesterday made new highs in the "E - F - G" sequence while the DJIA did not.
17. This DIVERGENCE, of course, was an important signal that the SPM move was false.
18. It was especially important because it occurred at the confluence of an "A & P Point" "cluster" on 980609 and 980610 (see page 398 of "The 1998 $upertrader's Almanac - 1st Half Edition).
19. It was 34 hours from the time the market first broke the 8750 level (the low at points "2" and "F") to the first high at Point 1.
20. 34 hours from Point "G" in the SPM (not the DJIA, since the TIME of the SPM "E - F - G" sequence was close to that of the "1 - 2 - 3" sequence shown in the chart [70 hours vs 75]) would be the middle of next Wednesday, June 17.
21. Hence, a move through the lows and Point "2" in the DJIA should CONFIRM that the high is in for some period of time (as if we're not pretty sure of such already).
22. The great thing about the configuration is that we now know that if price should move through Point "G", the move has become something else.
23. One factor supporting the wave "3 of III" interpretation discussed yesterday in COMMENT # 430 (MAXIMUM BEARISH) is that the movement UP in the bond market has failed to provide ANY SUPPORT whatsoever to the equity (stock) market.
24. The similarities to the 1987 debacle are stunning. Then we had another dollar crisis with a big-mouthed U.S. Treasury Secretary as we do now.
25. Did you know that Rubin is the Secretary of the United States Treasury and not the Treasury of the United States of America?
26. Did you know that the Secretary of the United States Treasury is the Director of the International Monetary Fund?
27. (See "Letter to Sunny Harris" at www.busprod.com/censorship).
28. Now pull a dollar bill out of your pocket and note the titles of the two people who have affixed their signatures thereon.
UPDATED 19980612
COMMENT 1998-436
The following chart of hourly DJIA prices updates that of COMMENT # 419.
1. Note the addition of the "E - F - G" sequence discussed the last couple of days.
2. Point "G" is labelled in the chart at the 70th hour since the Point "D" low.
3. This was the hour of 12:30 Wednesday (we had referenced 13:30).
4. The "G Spot" (pun intended) marks the high in the SPM.
5. As you can see, the DJIA did not CONFIRM this high as was cited at the time.
6. From Point "1" in the chart, 8 hours earlier (FIBONACCI # = 8) marks the spike low shown in the chart.
7. From Point "G" in the chart, 13 hours later (FIBONACCI # = 13) marks today's low.
8. If we draw an up trendline by connecting the "E - G" highs and then draw a down trendline by connecting the "D - F" lows, we can observe another "pattern" which is forming.
9. The latter down trendline is shown in the chart.
10. The "pattern" is a "reverse point wave" (see pages 126-129 in "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
11. As you can see, it would appear that today's low is forming point # 5 in this sequence.
12. The reason this "pattern" is important at this particular time is the glaring DIVERGENCE being formed at today's lows (see pages 171-184 of "The $upertrader's Reference Manual").
13. While the DJIA has broken the "2", "F" support level, many other indexes have not.
14. Those that have not include SPM, SPY, NYM, NYY, DJTA, and NQM.
15. Those that have include NQY, RTM, RTY, VLM, and VLY.
16. These DIVERGENCES, in ALIGNMENT with the "pattern" cited, suggest, at the least, a pause in the downside move.
17. I've also added a couple of a horizontal lines.
18. The first is at the "3" and "G" points (reviewed previously).
19. The second is at the "2" and "F" points (also reviewed previously).
UPDATED 19980613
COMMENT 1998-437
1. From the spike just before Point "1" in the chart of the hourly DJIA shown in COMMENT # 434 to Point "4" was 83 hours.
2. From the symmetrical reflection of Point "4" (which is Point "D") to yesterday's low was 83 hours.
3. From each spike low to Point "9" was 115 + 83 = 198 hours (LUCAS # = 199).
4. 83 / 198 = .419 (SQ RT 2 - 1.000 = .414).
5. 115 / 83 = 1.386 (SQ [ 1/ PHI] + 1.000 = 1.382).
6. 198 / 115 = 1.722 (SQ RT 3 = 1.732).
7. The 8 to 9, C to D, and G to (yesterday's low) were 416.8, 414.2, and 420.5 DJIA points each.
8. The 2 to 3, 4 to 7, 9 to 8, and F to G points were 345.8, 351.5, 396.2, and 356.0 points each.
9. We have now seen 5 complete geometric patterns in this market which is unprecedented.
10. First was the ascending diagonal triangle, second was the expanding triangle top, third was the contracting triangle, fourth was the complex head and shoulders, and fifth was the expanding triangle bottom (completed yesterday) (see COMMENT # 419).
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