TRADING THE FOUR-YEAR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEAR CYCLE
by Frank Taucher

"TRADING THE FOUR-YEAR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEAR CYCLE" is a legal-size book that contains price tendencies for approximately 40 markets whose contracts expire during the appropriate year of the four-year Presidential Election Cycle.

The reference has been constructed to provide the reader the same edge that has been obtained by those who have studied the effect of the four-year Presidential Election Cycle on the stock market.

The assumption is that politicians and monetary authorities conspire to inflate the economy and increase prosperity to the greatest extent possible during the years preceding and including the election.  Afterwards, the Federal Reserve Board then returns to a non-inflationary bias or must counteract the inflation the previous monetary binge has caused, tax hikes are enacted, etc., and the stock market corrects, followed by a slowing economy.

If the economy and stock market can be shown to be influenced by this four-year Presidential Election Cycle, then is it not rational to believe that ALL industries might also be so influenced?

Our belief is that it is not possible to believe in the first theory without also acknowledging the second.

Our objective is to allow the student to easily identify those markets that have best benefited from this phenomena.

The following chart shows actual daily June, 1992 gold prices charted against the projected quarter-month June gold prices in the 1992 edition of this book, our first year of publication.

The chart is of a "How-It-Came-Out" nature.

- CHART UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME -

Note that the TREND and TURNING POINTS were of far greater importance to the market observer than was the ABSOLUTE VALUE of the historic PRICE AVERAGE.

HOW TO USE

This information is not meant to be used on a "stand alone" basis, but as a supplement to other insightful analysis.

The astute trader will combine information from this study with the seasonal, cyclical, and other trading methodologies discussed in "The $upertrader's Almanac", "The $upertrader's Book of Linear Time Cycles", and other trading algorithms to obtain optimal results.